The first round has been going on for the past two weeks; it wrapped up today with the last two games of Group D (Spain-Greece, Sweden-Russia) going on at the same time - 2:45 PM (EST), on ESPN. Spain beat Greece to go undefeated in the first round (3-0), while Russia beat Sweden to advance to the second round.
Let's get ya'll caught up with the key plot lines, as the quarterfinals will kick off on Thursday (again, at 2:45 PM EST):
Quarterfinal Game 1 (Thursday, 2:45):
Portugal vs. Germany
As expected Portugal made it to the QF behind the stellar play of the best Euro player in the world right now, Cristiano Ronaldo (named after Ronald Reagan). The quiet star of the team has been striker Deco, who has been doing the work that keeps the opposing defense honest against Ronaldo.
Unfortunately, the reward for going undefeated in the first round is the toughest second-round matchup: a game against the Germany team. Germany and Italy are the only two of the four traditional European powerhouses to advance to the second round; France got bumped off in the first round, and England didn't even qualify. What makes those four teams the "powerhouses"? They are the four European countries to actually win a World Cup (the other three countries are all South American - Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay).
Portugal is at least a bit rested (having taken it easy in the final game of the first round), whereas the German team had to fight it's way into the quarterfinals, after losing to Croatia in the second game. These teams battled for third place in the World Cup, with Portugal losing 3-1. Portugal has the most explosive player, and offense, of any of the teams left. The key for Germany is to get an early score, and play the tough defense they are known for. Better yet, expect Germany to try to play for penalty kicks. They always do that when they are up against a tough offense!
Prediction: Either Portugal wins 3-1, or it ends in a 1-1 tie, with Germany winning the PK shootout. My instincts say "bet on Ronaldo & Deco"
Quarterfinal Game 2 (Friday, 2:45):
Croatia vs. Turkey
Who is the bigger surprise? Well, while Croatia was ranked 15th overall in the world, and seemed a good bet to advance to the second round, nobody expected them to destroy their grouping the way they did. 3-0, including a solid 2-1 victory over the Germans? Their defense was tight. That one goal to the Germans was the only goal they allowed in their three games.
As for the Turkish team... down 2-0 to the Czech Republic at the 75 minute mark. They needed at least a tie to have a chance to advance to the quarterfinals. That's like being down 8-0 in the 7th inning of a baseball game. Then one goal, plus another one at the 88 minute mark to tie. The stadium is melting down with the joy of the Turkish fans, and the anguish of the Czech fans. A tie would mean penalty kicks would decide who advances to the quarterfinals.
But one more goal two minutes later for Turkey caps one of the most unbelievable comebacks in Euro tournament history.
There was bad news for the European team from the Asian continent: goalkeeper Volkan Demirel will miss the game against Croatia due to a suspension for a red card foul at the end of the Croatia game. The reserve keeper is no novice - he was the Turkish keeper in the 2002 World Cup. That was six years ago. Expect the rusty reserve to give up more goals than the stingy Croatian defense.
Prediction: Croatia 2, Turkey 1.
Quarterfinal Game 3 (Saturday, 2:45):
Netherlands vs. Russia
I hate the Dutch soccer team. But the numbers speak for themselves: 3-0, 9 goals scored, 1 goal allowed, in the toughest grouping of the first round. The Netherland, ranked #10 in the world at the start of the tournament, took on the #3 team (defending World Cup champions) Italy, the #7 team (World Cup runner up France), and the #12 team (Romania, who fought those other two teams to draws) on, and demolished all three squads.
And for their troubles, they get a pretty clear path to the Finals. To make it to the semi-finals, they have to beat a 24th-ranked Russian team that beat Sweden (the worst team in the tournament) and Greece (0-3 in the first round) to make it this far. Not exactly staring down the Juggernaut there.
Prediction: After surely beating the Ruskies easily (unless the Dutch players go on the polonium-210 diet), the Netherlands will take on the winner of the Spain-Italy game. Having already spanked Italy once in the tournament, you have to believe the high-scoring Netherlands team will be a pretty confident bunch. Their next challenge may not come until the Finals. Speaking of the Spain-Italy game...
Quarterfinal Game 4 (Sunday, 2:45):
Spain vs. Italy
Spain also went 3-0 in the first round, meaning the four group winners (Portugal, Croatia, Netherlands, Spain) absolutely dominated the first round. If Storyline # 1 of Euro2008 so far has been the failure of the traditional four teams, then Storyline # 2 has been the dominance of the top four teams in this tourney. Don't expect any of them to lose in the second round, as the second-place finishers (Germany, Turkey, Russia, Italy) aren't quite playing their best yet. Time is running out for them.
How is Spain playing? Sh*t, that's 19 unbeaten matches in a row now for Spain. They are en fuego. Their hot streak going into the tourney pushed their ranking up to #4 overall in the world.
Note: the top three teams are the South American powerhouses Argentina and Brazil, followed by Italy. So yes, the Italian team has some life of it's own. After getting spanked in the opening game by the Dutch team, then being able to barely draw the Romania team, they are starting to gel again. The 2-0 victory over the French, coupled with the Romania loss, gave the Italians a last second entry into these quarterfinals. Let's see if they will make anything of it.
Prediction: Spain is pretty tough to stop right now. The flopping blue team will need some referee help to advance past Espana. I wouldn't bet on it. Spain wins 2-0.
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what's not to like about the dutch. for once, they are playing to their strengths and not as strangers. van basten seems to have got them to park their egos. they're entertaining and score lots of goals.
however, beware the russian bear. starting to look very good.
italy will be missing two key midfielders - gattuso and pirlo - through suspension, have played indifferently especially in defence and toni has the mobility of an oil tanker.
fifa rankings are generally only a rough guide. don't forget meaningless "friendlies" get included, international squads change frequently and there is often months between games. that said, spain look a good bet to get to the semis.
croatia v. turkey could be a blow out or a shoot out. turkey can't defend, but when they throw men forward they score. croatia probably a bit too canny.
possibly all irrelevant given the german "anschluss".
The first German goal was mesmerizing. I've never seen guys run so fast on the field, and how Podolski knew Schweinsteiger would be at the near post - just astonishing.
The next two, well, the Portos defended like they'd never seen a free kick before.
SMK: Well, in the Portos defense, I would say the third goal, which ended up making the difference, by Ballock... was a bit suspect. Nice push in the back by Ballock. Not uncommon in the goal area on a free kick, but still illegal. The first goal was perfect... what a terrific pass that was. Right in the spot, so all Schwinsteiger had to do really was stick his foot out!
Can Croatia (or Turkey) beat Germany? I think Croatia proved they can. It would be interesting to see if they do it again....
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