The NBA draft lottery is this Tuesday, May 20th, from 8:00 - 8:30 PM. For Knick fans, it is more than just an Event. At the risk of hyperbole, this Tuesday's lottery could be the moment that changes the franchise's history, like the 1985 lottery that netted the Knicks Patrick Ewing, and set the stage for the success of the late 80's through the 90's (yes, I still consider the Rick Pitino Era a success of sort). Or it could just be another year the Knicks fail to get a top-2 pick, and continue walking the path of the Atlanta Hawks (a franchise without a franchise guy).
Here's the deal, so Knick fans know what to look for while watching the draft live:
14 teams are in the lottery. The top-3 spots are available based on the results of the lottery; the rest fall into place based on record. The Knicks had the 5th worst record, so if everything went according to the odds, the Knicks would get the 5th pick.
Of course, the lottery never goes by the odds. In fact, over the past 15 years, only three times has the "odds-on favorite" (the team with the worst record) actually gotten the top pick. During the live telecast, Commissioner David Stern will announce the names the first 11 teams, from 14th pick down to the number four pick, before cutting to a drama-building commercial break.
Okay, here's the key formula to remember if you are a Knicks fan: for everyone of these 10 teams that isn't in their designated "slot", add one to the number five; that number will be the Knicks new designated slot:
14. Golden State Warriors
13. Portland Trail Blazers.
12. Sacramento Kings
11. Indiana Pacers
10. New Jersey Nets
9. Chicago Bulls
8. Charlotte Bobcats
7. Milwaukee Bucks
6. Los Angeles Cliipers
Once we get to the Knicks designated slot (again, currently #5, plus one for any teams that jump into the top-3), if the Knicks are not there, then get ready to celebrate, for they have made the top-3. Which means there is a 67% chance* they will get Michael Beasley or Derrick Rose, the two players who are closest to being sure things.
For example: If, after mentioning Golden State (14), Portland (13) and Sacramento (12) the Indiana Pacers are not in the 11th slot, then they have moved up into the top-3. That means the Knicks drop down to the number six pick, unless they also are in the top-3. Clear?
Keep in mind that the slot we want is #2. Netting the #1 pick will force the Knicks to have to pass on Beasley to pick Rose, who fills the greater need. That will give the local media ammunition to assault the Knicks if Beasley turns out to be a better player than Rose, which he most likely will. Unless Rose turns the Knicks into winners (much more so than Beasley's new team), or unless Rose turns out to be an unquestionable better player than Beasley... expect the Post and Daily News writers to trash the selection from game one until the end of his career.
If the Knicks don't get a top-2 pick, then no matter who is selected, he'll have to be the steal of the draft. Otherwise the Knicks will get it from the media again. Even if they take OJ Mayo, who fits the need of the Knicks (plus is a solid defender), and who Chad Ford has ranked as the third-best player available... the Knicks will get slammed by the local press. Trade down and pick up DJ Augustin or Danilo or somebody... and the Knicks blew it.
That is what is at stake for the franchise tomorrow.
Wildly unlikely prediction:
For some strange reason, I think the Portland Blazers good karma will net them yet another top-three pick.
*Most likely statistically inaccurate.
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Here's the deal, so Knick fans know what to look for while watching the draft live:
14 teams are in the lottery. The top-3 spots are available based on the results of the lottery; the rest fall into place based on record. The Knicks had the 5th worst record, so if everything went according to the odds, the Knicks would get the 5th pick.
Of course, the lottery never goes by the odds. In fact, over the past 15 years, only three times has the "odds-on favorite" (the team with the worst record) actually gotten the top pick. During the live telecast, Commissioner David Stern will announce the names the first 11 teams, from 14th pick down to the number four pick, before cutting to a drama-building commercial break.
Okay, here's the key formula to remember if you are a Knicks fan: for everyone of these 10 teams that isn't in their designated "slot", add one to the number five; that number will be the Knicks new designated slot:
14. Golden State Warriors
13. Portland Trail Blazers.
12. Sacramento Kings
11. Indiana Pacers
10. New Jersey Nets
9. Chicago Bulls
8. Charlotte Bobcats
7. Milwaukee Bucks
6. Los Angeles Cliipers
Once we get to the Knicks designated slot (again, currently #5, plus one for any teams that jump into the top-3), if the Knicks are not there, then get ready to celebrate, for they have made the top-3. Which means there is a 67% chance* they will get Michael Beasley or Derrick Rose, the two players who are closest to being sure things.
For example: If, after mentioning Golden State (14), Portland (13) and Sacramento (12) the Indiana Pacers are not in the 11th slot, then they have moved up into the top-3. That means the Knicks drop down to the number six pick, unless they also are in the top-3. Clear?
Keep in mind that the slot we want is #2. Netting the #1 pick will force the Knicks to have to pass on Beasley to pick Rose, who fills the greater need. That will give the local media ammunition to assault the Knicks if Beasley turns out to be a better player than Rose, which he most likely will. Unless Rose turns the Knicks into winners (much more so than Beasley's new team), or unless Rose turns out to be an unquestionable better player than Beasley... expect the Post and Daily News writers to trash the selection from game one until the end of his career.
If the Knicks don't get a top-2 pick, then no matter who is selected, he'll have to be the steal of the draft. Otherwise the Knicks will get it from the media again. Even if they take OJ Mayo, who fits the need of the Knicks (plus is a solid defender), and who Chad Ford has ranked as the third-best player available... the Knicks will get slammed by the local press. Trade down and pick up DJ Augustin or Danilo or somebody... and the Knicks blew it.
That is what is at stake for the franchise tomorrow.
Wildly unlikely prediction:
For some strange reason, I think the Portland Blazers good karma will net them yet another top-three pick.
*Most likely statistically inaccurate.
Leave a comment
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