1. John Paxson will survive to mess up the Bulls once again.
Let me start from the beginning, at the top of the list, knowhatI'mean?
What this means for the Bulls: Simply, Michael Beasley.
Forget all that "Derrick Rose is from Chicago" stuff. The Bulls have a point guard. Captain Kirk Hinrich has proven that, when surrounded by talent and a system that allows him to do what he does well (defense, three point shooting when open) he can lead the Bulls to 50 wins. Why throw him away, for a talented, yet unproven, point guard? Not when the most talented player in the draft is Beasley. Beasley also happens to be what the Bulls have been looking for years now: a low-post threat. Think the Bulls aren't the luckiest franchise in NBA history? First they get Jordan with the third pick, then they beat the odds (1.7%) yesterday to land the top pick in the draft, who just happens to fill their most crucial need.
If they pick anyone other than Beasley, not only does Paxson need to get fired right away, but you can beat on Beasley using the snub as motivation, and dropping 30 points on the Bulls everytime the Heat play them.
So here's one you can beat on: Beasley is a Bull.
2. Miami Heat - we told ya.
Yep, we said way back in February, when the Shaq deal went down, that Pat Riley was a genius. He still is. Man, I miss old greasy hair Riles. Peep the nucleus of the 2008 Heat: Derrick Rose, Dwyane Wade, Shawn Marion, Udonis Haslem.
Now all they have to do is get under the cap just enough to offer Elton Brand a free agent deal.
How about this trade: Jared Jeffries (6 million) + Fred Jones expiring contract (3.3 million) for Mark Blount (6.73M) and Smush Parker (2.4M)? The deal clears $3.3 million off the cap for the Heat to offer free agents this summer, bringing the Heat to $49 million, or $10.5 million under the cap.
Their cap allocation: $17.1M for Shawn Marion, $14.4M for Dwayne, $6.575M for Haslem, $4.176M for Marcus Banks, $1.27M for Daequan Cook, and now $6M for Jeffries (who is more useful to the 2008 Heat than either Banks or Blount). That's $10 million under the cap, enough to maybe eek out a deal for Brand (with $1 million increases every season).
Of course, there are other teams the Heat could make a similar deal with, to clear enough space (maybe Banks, Blount, and Parker all go, plus even Haslem) to offer Brand a decent contract.
Doubtful? Fine. How about instead of Brand, a next-tier forward, like... Josh Smith?
Get ready for the high-flying, running Heat next season.
3. What will the Knicks do?
Several options, in order of preference:
A. Draft OJ Mayo if he falls that far. Can he fall that far? We know that the Grizzlies pick 5th, ahead of the Knicks. They are loaded with points. They will be looking at anyone but Mayo. The question is what happens at #3 and #4? Will the Wolves or Sonics draft a point?
The Wolves seem less likely, since they still have a couple of points that are decent (Rashard McCants, Sebastian Telfair). If anyone is picking Eric Gordon, it's the Wolves, to load up with Al Jefferson.
The Sonics? Not so easy. They have Durant (SG/SF), and little else. If anyone could benefit from a point guard upgrade, it's the Sonics. However, there is the possibility that they could get scared off by the "reputation" of OJ Mayo, particularly since they are in the process of moving the team to Oklahoma City, and want to make sure they have a pretty face on the franchise (hence, all-around guys like Durant and Jeff Green). They might go conservative, and take a Brooks Lopez here. If so, then, yes, the Knicks might get a break, and have Mayo fall to them.
Folks, that would be a good thing. I know there are plenty of people who are turned off by the negative press that has hounded Mayo. Remember that Mayo is the third best prospect in this draft, and fills an urgent need. Value is value.
B. If Mayo is not available, the plan shifts a bit. The new plan might be maybe trade down, and try to get Danilo or DJ Augustin at a later point (like #8 or #9).
The next picks are: Clippers (#7), Milwaukee (#8), Charlotte (#9), and the Nets (#10).
The Nets and Knicks could work out a deal: how about Richard Jefferson ($12.2) + #10 pick for Zach Randolph ($13.33) + #6 pick? The Nets can throw in cap fodder to balance out the trade. Jefferson and Randolph both have long contracts that run until the end of the 2011 season; for the Knicks, this wouldn't be a great deal, in terms of getting under the salary cap by 2010 (though it will save them around $3 million in 2010). However, they do get a player who fits one big need - a quality starting SF. And Randolph is just a bad fit for the Knicks roster.
On the Nets side, they have too much money invested in their wing players (Vince Carter, Devin Harris and Jefferson are signed for big money through 2011 and beyond). Randolph gives the team balance, plus the defense-oriented, shot-blocking Sean Williams is a good center for Randolph to be paired up with in the frontcourt.
Why would the Nets care to move up 6 places? Perhaps if there is a player they really have their eye on, like a Danilo Gallinari (who can instantly replace Jefferson at 1/10th the cost). For the Knicks, the hope would then be that DJ Augustin is available; considering that Rose, OJ Mayo and Jerryd Bayless are the three point guards who would probably go before Augustin, and the only teams definitely looking for points before the 10-spot are the Heat, possibly the Sonics, and the Clippers... that might work out beautifully for the Knicks (depending on other trades, of course).
C. Stay put, and take Danilo or Bayless, depending on who works out better and which one fills the greater need.
My guess: The Knicks roll the dice with Marbury for a year. No harm in trying it. If he doesn't work out, then the Knicks can try to draft a point with their top-5 pick next season. If so, then the Knicks will need to address the SF situation more; that would mean they might lean towards Danilo. Conversely, they could go and try to fill their need via a trade: one option is Crawford for TJ Ford.
Another option, though, might be this: the Pistons, under Joe Dumars, have been the smartest team in cap management for a long time now. They are the ideal standard in the NBA. The Pistons have been the best team in the Eastern Conference for 4 years running now, and while doing it have also found time to rebuild the team subtly. Gone is Ben Wallace, eventually replaced by Jason Maxiell (with Webber and McDyess holding it down in the meanwhile). There is no urgency on this issue for the Pistons, but at some point Billups is going to have to get traded - he's contract runs until 2012, and Rodney Stuckey might prove by then that he is capable of running the point for the Pistons.
Though he was very impressive in knockign the Magic out of the playoffs last round, he hasn't proven it yet. However, at the same time, there is enough playoff left for Stuckey to make a strong case, not unlike a backup QB trying to seize the opportunity to take the job from the incumbent. If Stuckey has a big series against the Celtics, and helps the Pistons beat Boston... Billups days in Detroit will start counting down. Not immediately, in all likelihood.
But maybe a year down the line? Maybe midseason next year, if the Pistons and/or Billups start off slow? Malik Rose's expiring contract, plus a future pick, or some young talent (bye-bye David Lee) might get the Pistons to pry Billups loose. Joe Dumars is too savvy to not know when to sell a declining asset (see Ben Wallace). And he's going to do it before Billups gets too devalued. Perhaps it might happen next year around the trading deadline.
This is one more reason the Knicks might want to pass up on jumping at a second-tier point guard, and instead work on fixing their SF situation first....
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How did Kirk Hinrich go from being a point guard on a 50-win team (and "no way I trade him and Gordon for Kobe/Pau/Garnett) to being complete garbage!
Now, try to get value for Kirk-Gordon. Maybe the Knicks will give you Malik Rose's expiring contract. There isn't much of a market for those guys.
Personally, I think Hinrich still has a little left, but I can't blame you for taking Rose. It's just hysterical to me. As a Knick fan, even knowing we need Rose, I didn't want the #1 pick because the Knicks would look like fools to pass up Beasley for Rose. Now the Bulls, who need Beasley ten times more than they need Rose, are going to pass him up. Ridiculous.
As for Beasley threes... funny you mention that. He's a better shooter from downtown than Rose, too....
Sorry, I was on jury duty when I wrote that earlier, here's the info on Miami's cap situation.
If Marion does not opt out, this is their cap situation as of right now...
Under contract:
Marion: $17,180,000
Wade: $14,410,581
Blount: $7,350,000
Haslem: $6,575,000
Banks: $4,176,000
Parker: $2,400,000
Cook: $1,273,200
Total: $53,364,781
But, that does not include their free agents, and that's only 8 players, you must have 12 minimum counting against the cap. So, add to that number the cap hold number for Dorell Wright and 3 minimum salaries to make up the other three spots.
Wright: $6,062,715 (250% of his '07-'08 salary. This number does not change unless the Heat sign him to an extension, another team signs him to an offer sheet, he signs his qualifying one-year offer for $2,425,086, or the Heat renounce his free agent rights, making him an unrestricted free agent)
Minimum Salary 1: $797,581 (minimum for a player with 2 years in the league. It goes up for guys with more experience)
Minimum Salary 2: $797,581
Minimum Salary 3: $797,581
Which brings the Heat cap number to $61,820,239
as of now.
This is all assuming that the Heat immediately renounce their rights to the following players, giving up all Bird Rights where applicable:
Jason Williams
Ricky Davis
Alonzo Mourning
Earl Barron
Chris Quinn
Alexander Johnson
Luke Jackson
Joel Anthony
Anfernee Hardaway
Kasib Powell
Stephane Lasme
Blake Ahearn
Bobby Jones
Of course, they could pick any three of the scrubs at the bottom as the minimum salary fill ins for cap reasons.
From what I can tell, there is only one way they're going to be able to get under the cap far enough to be able to afford Elton Brand. Marion would have to opt out of the final year of his contract. That would put them at about $44M if they immediately renounced his rights, so they'd have roughly $13M under the cap.
Of course, they could use Marion as the center piece to a sign and trade deal for Brand from the Clippers, although I'm not really sure why the Clippers would do that, unless they're in love with Marion.
Any kind of sign and trade the Heat do with another team won't get them far enough under the cap to even come close to having enough money to sign Brand, they'd need to get back $14-$15M in cap space. No team has that much cap space to play with. I suppose there could be some kind of convoluted three-way trade involving the Sixers and the Grizzlies, but I don't see it happening.
Your math and logic are both way off in the Miami portion of this post. If Marion doesn't opt out the Heat have zero cap space. And expiring contracts have expired at this point. You cannot trade them. It is impossible for the Knicks to make a trade with the Heat which would clear more cap space for the Heat (other than a marginal amount) because the knicks are over the cap, thus they have to make trades of equal salary on both sides. The only way Miami can create more cap space is to renounce their to all free agents and/or make a trade with a team who has cap space, sending out more salary than theytake back.
Uh... wasn't Smush Parker waived and then didn't he sign with the Clippers?
Knicks worry about what's going on first before the draft. Will Marbury come back and will he play under D'Antoni? And they seriously need to think about jettisoning Curry or Randolph (or both if a deal strikes up).
Also, the Nix aren't going to take R Jeff's contract. It's just as long as Zach's. Whats the point ?
Good work on the numbers, Brian. I did mess that up. Still, I'm not sure about the "trading expiring contracts" thing - in theory, trades can occur during the draft, which is in June. Yet players don't become free agents until July 1st. Doesn't that mean you can still trade an expiring contract?
If not, then yeah, the Miami Heat are probably down to just mid-level exemptions, which won't get a deal done.
@Sunil: The point would be that Randolph is a terrible fit for the Knicks, especially if they pursue an uptempo offense. RJ is a better fit, and fills a bigger hole (David Lee can start at PF, but the Knicks best SF is still Quentin Richardson, who was the worst starting SF in the NBA last year). Similarly, the Knicks could try to trade Z-Bo for Michael Redd, especially if the Bucks have their eyes set on another SG/SF. Admittedly, Randolph's trade value is probably next to zero.
@anon: OJ Mayo is a combo guard, one who could play either PG or SG. He's a bit too short to guard most SGs in the NBA, so defensively he'll be a PG. Offensively, it depends on the team that picks him. The Knicks would almost certainly utilize Mayo as a PG....
ummmmm, Smush Parker was bought out and finished the year playing for LAC... I'm just saying, maybe a little research is in order.
Sorry to be a jerk, but your analysis is terrible, and a lot of that is because you clearly haven't taken the time to read anything regarding the league's CBA.
Players with contracts that will expire or could expire, can't be traded AFTER the season, so the Knicks can not trade Fred Jones, to anybody.
Geez, give a guy a break!
SML, I have another trade that I thought would work out over on my page. Granted, it only works if a player does not opt out of his contract. So, don't be yelling at me for that!
try this site for everyone who is confused on contracts and whatnot
Beasley is only 6'8". He's the next Carmelo Anthony with more rebounds. He doesn't care on the defensive end and he doesn't make his teammates appreciably better. He scores his points whether his teams win or lose.
I don't understand the whole "The Bulls need a low-post scorer and Beasley is a low-post scorer, therefore the Bulls need Beasley" line of logic. First off, Beasley is not a Shaq or Duncan or Oden type of draft pick. He's a SF in the body of a PF, or a PF who is under-sized yet grabs a lost of boards. That says nothing about how his low-post-scoring game will migrate to the NBA knowing that he's small for a PF. Will he be able to generate all those shots of his own against the longer and more athletic post players? Will he be able to bang inside against the bigger pro bodies?
To me, the pick is clearly Derrick Rose. He has the upside of Isiah Thomas and the downside of Mike Bibby. He'll be very good for 15 years, and has the potential to be a star. He can create his own shot and he can make all of his teammates better. He plays on both ends of the floor - offense AND defense.
By picking Derrick Rose, the Bulls will have the best PG in the Eastern Conference for years. If they pick Beasley they won't have the best PF or 6'8" forward in the East unless LeBron and Garett retire next season - and it'll be a while before Beasley is even better than Rasheed Wallace or Drew Gooden.
Really, I'm offended that you call Hinrich a quality point guard. Don't be so nice. He was complete garbage last year. Rose is the guy.
Worries about Beasley (who, as I said today, is awesome, and I won't be all that upset if he's the pick): I disagree that he's a true low post scorer. He's just a scorer in general. I'd compare him to a little bit bigger version of Carmelo. The dude made a bunch of threes last year. He's kind of a 3.5.
All the high school guys I've talked to that have covered him think he's a total punk. Obviously, nothing bad happened last year at K-State. But he has a track record of being a malcontent.
You win with point guards! It's easier to find scorers. Rose (get ready for this) can be better than Chris Paul. I said months ago that I think he'll end up being a little worse than Paul, a little better than Deron Williams. The man is a stud.
I won't be upset either way, but I'm pulling hard for Rose. Kirk-Gordon makes a nice little trade combo too. You can get some gooood stuff for that.