And since the media has been pretty quiet on what to do, other than having some amnesia regarding Donnie Walsh (in the hopes of taking back some media access from James Dolan's harsh policies), the question needs to be asked: What to do now?
We have some hint at Donnie Walsh's plan, from his introductory press conference:
1. Don't take on long-term contracts
2. Try to get under the cap by 2010, to make a play for a free agent (read: LeBron James or Chris Paul).
It's a great plan, one all Knicks fans can get behind. It's what a lot of us have been calling for, which is fiscal prudence. However, it's also not going to happen by itself. The Knicks aren't on pace to be under the cap in the summer of 2010, and here's why not:
Zach Randolph is due to make $17,333,000 in 2011.
Eddy Curry is due to make $11,276,000 in 2011.
Jamal Crawford is due to make $10,080,000 in 2011.
Jared Jeffries is due to make $6,883,000 in 2011.
That's $45,572,000 committed to 2011. If the cap is set at slightly above $60 million, it makes it hard to offer a max deal to LeBron or Paul. Oh, and that's only four players. Here are some more possible commitments:
The #1 pick this year (let's say it's the #2 pick, Derrick Rose) = $4,900,000 in 2011.
Wilson Chandler = $2,130,000 in 2011.
Randolph Morris/Renaldo Balkman/David Lee/Nate Robinson are all up for extension before 2011 that might increase their cap number (if re-signed).
So, let's get down to business. Here's our short list of moves for Donnie Walsh to consider over the next three seasons:
1. Who to pick in the 2008 Draft?
This depends on the spot the Knicks end up in. We doubt David Stern would "rig" the lottery in favor of the Knicks ending up with the #1 pick... the last time he did that, the Knicks got Patrick Ewing, but he hasn't heard the end of it yet. Still, for James Dolan to hire Stern's strongly recommend choice for replacing Isiah Thomas, the conspiracy theorist might believe that the Knicks are going to get some kind of reward. My guess: the number 2 pick in the draft, which translates to either Michael Beasley or Derrick Rose, depending on what the #1 team (Miami Heat most likely) picks. What could be a better turn of events for David Stern and the NBA than the two biggest rivals of the late 90's, the Heat and Knicks, restarting their rivalries with young players that will be forever linked together - the top two players of the 2008 Draft.
Of course, this is all pure fantasy for now. Yes, if the Knicks land a top two spot, they need one of those two (contrary to most, I think that PG isn't the only problem the Knicks have, and that SF has been worse this year - perhaps Beasley, a PF in college, can play SF in the NBA).
But if they don't land a top-two pick, they are still looking at around a top-5 pick. Their options there include a second tier PG - DJ Augustin, Eric Gordon (more of SG), OJ Mayo (a very solid defender, something the Knicks need more off, but someone who would come with heavy baggage due to bad, biased, press coverage in the past, unfortunately); a big man like Brooks Lopez (not a terrible big man, but not a franchise-changing player) or Blake Griffen (great hands, great motor, solid rebound, poor defender, poor offense - the Knicks already have David Lee); or, my recommendation: they can go fix their SF problem, which right now is the biggest lopsided problem the Knicks have.
According to 82games, the Knicks are actually competitive at PG and Center. Where they get crushed the most is SF. Their SF this year have an average PER of 11.6, which is incredibly inefficient. You could have Eddy Curry or Stephon Marbury play SF, and either would probably be more efficient than any of Knicks' SFs this year.
There are limited options at SF in the upper portion of the draft, but teams have two options: Go big, with a "PF in college" guy like Kevin Love (great player, but too out of shape to play SF) or the aforementioned Beasley, or go international and Danilo Gallinari, the 6'9 Italian from Armani Jeans. He's only 19 years old, and not your prototypical Euro - he can and does like contact, and can handle the ball well. He has a good jumper. Of course he lacks the rebounding and defense aspects to his game (those things go hand and hand often), and so it seems likely that he's also suffer from the "soft" tag that most Euros get labeled with, which will hurt him in a city like New York where fans prefer gritty players that dive and hustle.
Given all this information, the Knicks better hope to get the #2 pick, or that fans are ready for the OJ Mayo era. If I was Donnie Walsh in this situation (meaning staring at the #5 pick), I might get on the phone with my friends in Indy, and swap picks in exchange for Indy taking Randolph and Jeffries for Jermaine O'Neal, then use Indy's pick to take DJ Augustin. More on why this would make sense later in the "How To Get Under The Cap by 2010" section (short version: saves the Knicks $23 million in 2010, plus another $1-2 million in the difference between the #5 pick and the #10 pick).
2. Hiring A New Coach.
I think most Knicks fans don't care if the new coach is Mark Jackson, Scott Skiles, or even Larry Brown (just kidding - don't get any ideas). They just want the new coach to do a few things:
-Set a consistent rotation.
-Figure out how to take advantage of the Knicks' skill sets, and disguise/protect their weaknesses (i.e. perimeter defense).
-Play the best players, and get some improvement in those players (including David Lee's offense, Jamal Crawford's defense, Eddy Curry's whole regression this year, etc.)
-Call offensive plays. Seriously, the only plays the Knicks ran this year that I can recall all seem to involve Jamal Crawford at the top of the key, behind the arc, and all ended with him shooting.
There are a lot of things the coaching staff will have to work on - we'll save that for our post on "How [Future Coach] Can Improve The Knicks", but yes, one of the suggestions I would make is to put Jamal Crawford in the second unit. Mainly because his defense is atrocious - I think he's on par with Steve Nash in "poorest defender for no reason" in the league. Simply put: Crawford is too slow to guard SGs, even though he's one of the quickest SGs in the league, and Crawford is unable to guard points very well, either, despite having 3-5 inches of height advantage on most almost ever point in the league. The man might be hopeless, but maybe a new coach can change Crawford's attitude towards defense.
Similarly, Frank Isola of the NY Daily News has mentioned that the new coach (particularly if it is Mark Jackson) can bring in Patrick Ewing to help coach Eddy Curry. That seems like a good idea, too.
And finally, a good idea for the new coach would be a 8-man rotation that includes Renaldo Balkman and Wilson Chandler (replacing the departing Fred Jones). Improving the coaching, starting lineup and rotation should, with no other moves, make the Knicks at least 10-15 games better next season. After all, unless Steve Francis and Channing Frye were really that valuable, the Knicks should be able to win at least 33 games with this team - that's how many games they won last year. Even if all the new coach to do is bench Zach Randolph.
3. Evaluate and Assign Value to the Young Players
First up, this offseason, is Randolph Morris. He's a free agent this summer, so do we re-sign him? At what cost?
Next year, at some point during the season, the Knicks will have to decide what to do about David Lee and Nate Robinson. Nate's future is dependent on whether Walsh drafts a PG (Derrick Rose would pretty much make Nate expendable), and whether Walsh decides to trade Crawford or not.
David Lee, on the other hand, should be determined by the cost to re-sign him. Every dollar used to re-sign him is one dollar not available for signing a free agent in 2010. If the plan really is to get under the cap in 2010 to sign a free agent, then the David Lee re-signing may be the biggest decision facing Walsh between now and then. He'll have to determine how much a David Lee is worth... it could be anywhere from $6-10 million a year, and Walsh's recent history in Indiana has shown that he does approve overpaying players (see Jermaine O'Neal, Jamaal Tinsley, and Al Harrington, for examples). With Lee the closest thing to a rising star on this Knicks team, the need to make a fiscally prudent decision arises.
The Knicks can hold off decisions on Wilson Chandler and possibly Renaldo Balkman until after 2010.
4. How to Shave Off Salary By 2010?
The last item on the list (for now), but the biggest. As we mentioned at the top, the Knicks are not close at all to being under the salary cap by summer 2010, when LeBron James, Chris Paul, and Chris Bosh, among others, are the big names available. Our rule for getting under the salary cap, as always: "You can't get under the cap until your worst contract expires". In the Knicks case, they have a four-way tie for worst contract - Zach Randolph, Jared Jeffries, Jamal Crawford and Eddy Curry.
You could argue about which contract is worse, or more untradeable, but the bottom line is this: for the Knicks to get under the cap by 2010, at least two of those contracts have to go. Minimum.
The good news? Donnie Walsh seems to have very few enemies in other team's front offices. One of the biggest problems I had with the Isiah Thomas regime was that he had made enemies in the front offices of a few other teams. When I saw the Charlotte Bobcats, for no apparent reason, take on the Detroit Pistons' worst contract this past season (Nazr Mohammad's contract, which runs until 2011), I thought to myself "Damn, that could have been Jerome James right there, or Eddy Curry". But Isiah Thomas would be very unlikely to pull a trade with the Bobcats, who have Michael Jordan (a noted Zeke enemy) in the front office.
The list of potential suitors the Knicks couldn't trade with goes on: the Bobcats (MJ), the Pacers (Larry Bird fired Isiah), the Spurs (Popovich and Isiah Thomas have exchanged words, most recently about Bruce Bowen's dirty tactics), and the Nuggets (George Karl is another noted beef). And there might be others for all I know.
Now that Donnie Walsh is here, pulling off a sweet deal, which is what it will most likely take for the Knicks to get under the cap by 2010, is a possibility. The Knicks have two options with how to get under the cap - one is to trade the large contracts that run for a long time for smaller contracts that might run longer, but take up less space. I don't particularly like this path - the rule is a bad contract will stymie your cap for as long as it is on the books.
The second option is trade one or two of those longer contracts for a shorter contract. To do so the Knicks will have to give up an asset. One example was the proposed "Jermaine O'Neal and Indy's #10 pick for Zach Randolph, Jared Jeffries and the #5 pick". I would doubt that the #5 pick would be enough for the Pacers to make this move, but let's say the Knicks end up with the #3 pick, and Rose and Beasley are off the board. What then? Take Brooks Lopez? Reach high for Mayo? Maybe the Pacers won't go for both Randolph and Jeffries, so maybe the #3, Crawford and Malik Rose's expiring contract for Jermaine O'Neal and the #10 gets it done?
The proposed trade earlier this year of Zach Randolph for Bobby Simmons ($10.56 million, expiring summer 2010) and Dan Gadzuric ($7.2 million in 2011) would save the Knicks $10 million of the cap in 2010, and give them a smaller contract to move in Gadzuric. The real key here is that Walsh stay focused on that bottom line number for 2010, especially around the trade deadline over the next two seasons. At the trade deadlines, you often see deals (like the Bobby Jackson deal this past deadline, plus the Kurt Thomas deal) where teams will make a move solo to get under the luxury cap, with the goal of being eligible to get the "luxury refund" of $2.5 million dollars. It's in these scenarios that the Knicks might clear some salary.
For example, if Washington is looking to save some money next year at the deadline, they might be up for an "Etan Thomas (no longer as needed after Haywood's big season), Antonio Daniels and a small throw-in (kinda like Roger Mason this year) for former Wizards starter Jared Jeffries and Malik Rose". The salaries for Thomas ($6.8 million), Daniels ($6.2 million) and a throw-in like Mason ($700,000) perfectly match Jeffries ($6.049 million) and Rose ($7.67 million). The upshot for the Wizards? They save $7.67 million when Rose's contract expires at the end of the 2009 season. The upshot for the Knicks? They save $6.049 million in 2010, because Jeffries contract won't be on the books anymore (all the Wizards contracts expire in summer 2010).
It's a tough task, and to be honest, I don't know if I believe it's the best course of action. Good luck, Donnie Walsh.
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You overlook the fact that to get a Lebron or a Paul, not only will the Knicks have to get rid of 2 of the 4 bad contracts you have listed but also simultaneously build a credible team. Trading away Randolph and Jeffries is not going to get you any good playes in return; the best case scenario is getting shorter contracts as you noted. So unless the Knicks get lucky in not one but two straight drafts, I don't see them both clearing cap space AND building a competitive team that can be a contender with the addition of a CP3 or an LBJ. (That's because the only real assets I see on the current roster are Balkman, Lee and perhaps Chandler.)
Also CP3 is happy staying in NO and with West and Chandler, he is set for the future. Also, Wade + Derrick Rose + Elton Brand makes the Heat contenders for a while. Getting either of them is unlikely and I think the only credible targets may be Bosh and Lebron or perhaps Carmelo a year after. Why do I get a feeling you are going to write a similar post in 2010 about clearing cap space for Durant in 2012. Trust me, I ain't no hater; I want the Knicks to do well.
@Srivaths: I actually deleted that part - I had that at the end, but didn't know what could be done about it. I wrote that "and Walsh will need to get/keep pieces that fit around LeBron", thought about it, and decided that it really can't be done. Unless Walsh is on some son of God stuff, it just can't be done. The best we can hope for is Lee, Rose, Balkman, Chandler, maybe Morris and possibly Crawford or Curry. We can't even bank on future #1's, because one of those belongs to Utah (I think 2009 or 2010, depending on whether it is lottery or not).
So yeah, it's not a championship caliber team. Those aren't even good pieces for a LeBron team - Lee is, but Curry and Crawford aren't good fits. But if you are building a contender, LeBron in his prime is the place to start....
@Rickhouse:
My preferences, in order:
1. Beasley (even if he is a bad fit)
2. Rose
3. Augustin provided the Knicks get rid of a contract for trading down
4. OJ Mayo
I'm leery of Danilo, but I would put him at #5, just on potential and the Knicks need for a SF. Other than that, I'm not too interested in the rest of the draft. Maybe one of the second tier points, like Eric Gordon, will catch my eye, but right now those are my four preferences.
And I do like Mayo, maybe as much as Rose. He's a real good defender, and Rose seems a bit shaky on defense. That's really important, given the Knicks' roster.
I may be a little biased here cause hes from Chicago and all and i'm kinda into hometown high school hoops but I think Rose can be the best player on a title team. He'll be right with Paul and Deron in two years. He's that good. I'd put him ahead of Tony Parker and ahead of Conley, Felton, Devin Harris, ect. by a long shot. I like Mayo too, but hes simply not the player Rose is.
Agree Rickhouse. Rose is the better player, no doubt. He'll be a top-10 point in the league by his second season (if not his rookie year), and has the potential to be a top-3 point. I just think Mayo's defense is something the Knicks might need from that position, considering that Curry and Randolph are going to be around for another 3 years (not to mention Lee, too)...
It just shows how tough it is to build a team from scratch in this league. I keep thinking back to the Cavs situation in 2003. Even with the ultimate franchise player and a decent center in Ilgauskas and a ton of cap space, they could do no better than Hughes and Marshall. Same with the Magic overpaying for Rashard; they did so because there wasn't a better choice (maybe they could have waited out for Arenas but it would have been a long shot). I think the more workable option may be sustained mediocrity and hoping to get lucky in multiple drafts. It's worked for the Blazers and could work for the Sonics. The point I am making is that the better route to rebuilding may be drafting wisely for multiple years and then using the free agent market to get the player who will push you over the edge rather than starting from the free agent route. Of course the Knicks situation is a lot more complicated.
I think the real problem with the league is that there are too many teams. If you had say 27 teams, guys like Rashard, Richard Jefferson, Okafor and Iguodala wouldn't demand ridiculous contracts and they could be ideal second/third bananas with reasonable contracts. Also, there would be less room to trade your way out of bad contracts and that will further incentivise fiscal sanity. And bad teams will be able to turn themselves around far more quickly through the draft.
Good points. I had a conversation yesterday (maybe a future post) on how the Sonics have a better future than the Blazers, mainly because they will get to rebuild their team with several top-5 picks (they won't be much improved next season, either, since they are in a weird situation where all they are doing is cutting salary and waiting to move to OKC).
I would add that the Cavs had the biggest piece there, in Carlos Boozer, but couldn't hold on to him. That's a really tough break that still haunts the team.
SML - That's why, ultimately, we can't seriously entertain an offer to move down in this draft. The fact remains that David Lee and Wilson Chandler are the only two players we have that potentially belong in the top-8 rotation of a championship NBA team, and they're probably the 7th and 8th and not even the 6th man. All the others (Randolph, Curry, Crawford, Robinson, Balkman) are so fatally flawed in one way or another that we're best off moving on.
So basically, once we clear all this cap space, the best, stud player that LeBron, CP3, Bosh, Wade, or whomever we target would be coming to NYC to play with will be the player we're drafting this June. Let me say that again... Whoever we draft in June, whether it's with the #1 or the #28, will instantly become the best player we have, the cornerstone of our franchise, and the player that other players must want to come play with. So, we HAVE to hit on it 100%, whether it's Beasley, Rose, Mayo, or Jerryd Bayless, who, by my count, are the only four true NBA studs in this draft (unless DeAndre Jordan has a great workout against a chair).
Considering that we know we have to trade our bad players and that since they're bad and overpaid, we're not going to get any good players in return, so the June 2008 and June 2009 drafts are our only real chances to get any building blocks between now and the summer of 2010. (and fyi, the Utah pick is the 2010 pick, so we won't be able to use that pick, or the 2011 pick, in any sign and trades.
I'd actually take this approach: Instead of trading Curry, Randolph, Crawford, Jeffries, Balkman, and Robinson for 25 cents on the dollar, trade them for 10 cents on the dollar. Don't try to get rid of 2 of the four big contracts, get rid of ALL of them, even if you only take back total washouts like Speedy Claxton and Adonal Foyle - as long as there's no '10-'11 money. Don't get $16M under the cap, get $35M under the cap; it's possible, but we'll totally suck ASS the next two years in doing it. Then, come the summer of 2010, we'll have a core of:
Lee (extended at 10M per)
Chandler (peanuts)
Top Five Pick of the 2008 draft (peanuts)
Top Five Pick of the 2009 draft (peanuts)
Assorted second rounders and D-Leaguers (peanuts)
And, we would have the chance to pull a 2000 Orlando Magic and sign not one, but TWO free agents. We'd increase our chances of getting LeBron dramatically if he could recruit a Chris Bosh or a DWade to sign a package deal and come with him...
1-Rose
2-2009 Top Five Pick
3-LeBron
4-Lee
5-Bosh
The Knicks desperately need one of those first two picks, but if it doesn't happen, I think Mayo would be the way to go. Like you said, his rep has been soiled a tad by the media, but also by expectations everyone had for him. I first heard of Mayo when he was in eighth grade. He was supposed to be LeBron, and he just isn't that type of transcendent athlete. Mayo actually reminds me a lot of 'good Larry Hughes', and someone like that is very useful. The best player on a title team? No, but definitely a starter and someone who could maybe get you 20 ppg.