The Shaquille O'Neal to the Suns for Marcus Banks and Shawn Marion trade sure did come out of nowhere, right?  Lots of questions, so let's get to them (and maybe provide an answer or two):

1.  Let's start with the Heat... how did they do on this trade?

This is a pretty easy one to answer.  Most everyone thinks they did well, and that's correct.  The general consensus seems that getting rid of Shaq's enormous contract was a great move. 

But they did better than that.  In essence, they laid the foundation for the rebuilding of the Heat into a championship contender.  No NBA team has ever gone from last place (I mean last... the Heat currently have the worst record in the NBA) to first in one season.  The Spurs came the closest, winning the Tim Duncan lottery, then become contenders. 

We said just yesterday that the Heat seemed unlikely to make any moves until the offseason to improve the team, since they would probably prefer to keep losing, get the top pick, make some moves, and start again.  That definitely seems to be the game plan, but the acquisition of Marion improves the team right now.  It won't make too much of a difference - the Heat will still end up in the lottery.

What do the Heat need right now?  They have Dwyane Wade at SG, and Marion as a forward.  They still need to upgrade their point guard and center positions.  Who will they draft?  The players most often mentioned as the best available are Michael Beasley (a forward), and point guards Derrick Rose and OJ Mayo.  But somehow flying a bit under the radar is a player who would have been a top-3 pick last year... and should be a top-3 pick this year:  Roy Hibbert.

If the Heat can get Hibbert in the draft, they now have their center situation resolved.  They still have enough trade bait, in the form of expiring contracts (Jason Williams and Ricky Davis), to make a move with the Kings this offseason, perhaps for Mike Bibby.  Or maybe even Mike Bibby and Ron Artest.  Let's say the Kings want to dump both player for salary cap space.  Unlikely - they'll want some talent, too - but perhaps they feel that Kevin Martin and Brad Miller are making enough, and with bad contracts like Kenny Thomas and Shareef Abdul-Rahim around, plus young players like Quincy Douby, Beno Udrih and Francisco Garcia looking at extensions in the next couple of years... they just can't afford to keep Bibby and Artest.  If so, they might dump them both (a combined $21.3 million this season) straight up for salary cap relief.

Enter the Heat.  They have $18,517,500 in expiring contracts (Jason Williams, Ricky Davis, Alonzo Mourning), which might be the highest in the league right now.  They offer those three, plus Smush Parker ($2.2 million, with a player option for 2009), and the Kings have cleared their cap number down to $42 million (plus whatever Kevin Martin's extension calls for - $11 million) for next season.  If not, the Kings would be at $70 million next season, or just above the luxury cap number ($68.5 million this season).  We'll get into the luxury cap discussion in a second.

Just to finish up with the Heat:  Add both those guys, and the Heat team next year is Bibby, Wade, Artest, Marion, and Hibbert, with Udonis Haslem, Daequan Cook, and a high second rounder coming off the bench.  That's not a bad team, and it's young, too.  Of course it would require the Heat to sign both Artest and Marion to extensions and keep them both happy.  But who can't be happy living large in Miami?

2.  What do the Suns get out of this deal?

That's everyone's number one question.  My first instinct, as it alway is with the Suns, is "money".  I knew they were at $71,361,603 for the season.  As Henry Abbott explained, there is a strong incentive, money-wise, for teams to come in under the luxury cap.  Dr. Abbott (yes, we call him Dr.) tells us the luxury cap # this season is $68,685,000.  He also tells us that teams that are over that cap amount have to pay the one dollar for each dollar over fine.  Those under, on the other hand, get a $2.5 million handout from the league.  So there is an a strong incentive to get from over to under the luxury cap, if a team is close enough to do so - for a team like the Suns, that's almost a $6 million swing.

So my first instinct was to assume that they were shaving money off the cap.  Not so - Shaq's contract ($20 million) is only saving them $320,000 this season (the value of Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks contracts).  Next season they will save about $1,364,000, which is a pretty significant amount when you consider that they will, again, be right there at the luxury tax threshold (they are scheduled to spend $71.75 million next season, pretrade).

Long term there are tremendous benefits to this deal for the Suns:  they lose Marcus Banks contract, which was just too long for a player they weren't going to use.  They time Shaq and Nash's contracts to expire at the same time, which gives them some flexibility.  They can trade Shaq's expiring contract at the end, in the hopes of landing a premier player to make one last push for the title with Nash.  They can let both contracts expire at the same time, then use their $30 million in cap space to sign some premier free agents.  That year's class?  LeBron James, Dirk Nowitzki, and Josh Howard all have options to become free that year.  Others: Joe Johnson, Marcus Camby, Tracy McGrady, Rip Hamilton.  It's the best free agent class in the next four years.

So yeah, future-wise... the Suns get closer to getting under the luxury tax threshold (a real concern to the owners) and set themselves up for a nice, quick rebuilding job in 2010.

Between now and then?  The Shaq-Amare Stoudemire-Grant Hill/Boris Diaw/Raja Bell/Steve Nash lineup is pretty good looking, no?  Nash will create easy baskets for Shaq, who now gives the Suns something they haven't had in years - a legit half court offense threat.  No, he won't be able to run with the Suns.  They'll still be uptempo, but they won't be running and gunning all the time. 

They might not be able to maintain the 65-win pace.  However, they have become a better playoff threat then they have been in years. 

I don't believe they can win a title with Steve Nash at the point (side rant:  sorry, but his defense is atrocious.  Tony Parker turns into Clyde Frazier every time they match up.  Nash has no place being a three-time MVP, when he's only a one-dimensional player.  How can people ride Eddy Curry for being a defensive slouch, when Nash is worse?  And defense at point guard in today's NBA is more important than defense at the center-spot... point guards control the tempo so much more.  Ugh.  End rant).  But the Suns have as serious a championship contender as they have in the last five years. 

No, they won't be as much fun.  But they'll be legit.  Oh, and also: this move will keep the fans in the seats, interested to see if Shaq (a bigger fan favorite than Marion) can get back into playing shape behind the lure of one more title run.  The seats stay full for the next two years, and the Suns owners get more $$.  Honestly, with the Suns team, you get the impression that it was never about actually winning a title as much as it was having a fun team that would keep the fans in the seats. 

For all its success this season, the Suns have not sold out their court.  In fact, they are 14th in the league in attendance this season, and have only sold about 96.8% of their seats.  %wise, they are just ahead of the Knicks (96%) for 13th in the NBA.  To be fair, the Suns' attendance is almost exactly the same as it was last year.  Still, there are signs there that this team isn't as attractive to fans as they could be.  Adding a strong drawing interest and likeable personality like Shaq is a good business decision from this point of view.


Leave a comment





20 Comments

Comments

[February 6, 2008 1:08 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Jack Cobra said

I'm not sure if I understood that Heat/Kings mumbo jumbo but luckily I made it to the part about the Suns.....I watched the Suns last week and I saw a team that looked stale. Yes, they looked like a good, athletic team, but they looked stale. When they first started running this offense everyone was excited and wanted to be a part of it. Now, years later, they have all grown used to it and it seems maybe they take it for granted. Shaq could infuse some talent into the team and 'unstale'(?) them....Still, he doesn't have the skill set to guard the elite bigs anymore.

[February 6, 2008 1:37 PM]  |  link  |  reply
stopmikelupica said

Great point, Cobra. That "stale" element is exactly why the Suns needed to shake things up. They weren't doing too good against the elite teams, either (something like 14-12 against the Western conference playoff teams).

I don't think the Suns are too worried about Shaq guarding elite bigs... who is an elite big among these teams: The Lakers (Bynum might be, but Shaq might be able to hold the youngster), the Mavs (Dampier?), Nuggets (Camby), Spurs (Horry/Duncan), Hornets (Chandler), and Warriors (Chris Webber/Andris Biedrins). They are all quicker than Shaq, but none are real threats to drop 20 ppg or anything in a series, except for Duncan (if he's considered a center) and maybe Bynum.

[February 6, 2008 2:29 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Jack Cobra said

A lot of those teams you mentioned move their bigs around quite a bit and that's where Shaq will have problems. NO and LA are always running those pick and rolls and Camby is always all over the floor in Denver.

Phoenix essentially might still have to have Amare guard most 5's and have Shaq guard the weakest (offensively) big man on the floor.

Couldn't you see NO pull Paul/Chandler out to the perimeter to pull Shaq out there and then run pick and rolls for an entire series? That could get real nasty.

[February 6, 2008 2:59 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Brian replied to Jack Cobra

I don't think the Paul/Chandler pick and roll is anywhere near as scary as the Williams/Boozer pick & roll, or the Williams/Okur p&r.

The thing about this trade, and the Webber signing, is that the two most exciting teams, the two teams who looked like they were challenging the status quo in the NBA, basically blew up the very design that makes them so exciting. Webber and Shaq on these two teams is going to kill what made them so fun to watch, such a break from the norm. It's a sad day for hoops, as far as I'm concerned.

Oh, and you can't trade expiring contracts after they expire. Miami could trade picks for Artest and Bibby, and not have to worry about making the salaries match up, but they can't trade Williams and Davis after their contracts expire.

[February 6, 2008 3:19 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Jack Cobra replied to Brian

I think they'd have Amare on Boozer and just let Shaq sag on Okur

[February 6, 2008 3:23 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Pooh said

I stopped reading at "Hibbert top 3 pick"

[February 6, 2008 4:23 PM]  |  link  |  reply
J said

"Oh, and you can't trade expiring contracts after they expire. Miami could trade picks for Artest and Bibby, and not have to worry about making the salaries match up, but they can't trade Williams and Davis after their contracts expire."

In other words, this blog has lost all credibility.

[February 6, 2008 4:42 PM]  |  link  |  reply
stopmikelupica said

Creditility? Shoot, we never had any! We're not Slam, yo...

Seriously, I think the Heat have some more moves they can make then before the trading deadline. There's still three weeks for them to move those contracts. Or maybe they are just trying to clear cap space, and that's it. If so, they might let Marion go. That's a possibility, though, like the Grizzlies trading Pau Gasol, it makes no sense, because... what are the Heat going to do with all that space? Who is available that they want?

@Pooh: Yeah, Roy Hibbert might still be a top-5 pick. Seriously, don't be too surprised. He is the best center-type player available, unless you count Kevin Love as a center. Hmm...

But I admit college ball ain't my field of expertise. Maybe Rickhouse knows what's up?

@Cobra: Brian beat me to it. Those other centers in the West - Camby, Chandler, Biedrins... there's no need for Shaq to go out the paint to guard them. None of them can hit a baby jumper regularly. Webber can, and Boozer/Okur definitely can. On the other hand, one of the Heat's 9 wins was against the Jazz; Shaq got Boozer into foul trouble early, and he ended up with only 10 points that game (on 4-16 shooting). I'm guessing that was an anomaly, but maybe Shaq can handle Boozer better than we are giving him credit for.

Either way, I don't think any other center on a playoff team in the West can really abuse Shaq, even this 35% Shaq we're seeing today.

Brian brings up a good point: the sad reality is that teams are shying away from uptempo play in the NBA, because either it doesn't win in the playoffs, or because they are trying to match up with the Celtics/Spurs/Lakers, the three biggest "favorites" right now (per Vegas).

[February 6, 2008 5:14 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Jack Cobra replied to stopmikelupica

But as someone pointed out already, Nash isn't a very good defender so Shaq will have to come out on the pick and roll to hedge the PG to make sure he doesn't fly by Nash or just shoot a jumper.

[February 6, 2008 5:52 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Wes Hawk said

Q: "But who can't be happy living large in Miami?"

A: Shawn Marion

Nash gets a break for his defensive lack because he still works hard on that end of the floor. His problems are the physical tools he's working with, not a lack of effort or desire. The gifts that he uses to get an advantage on the offensive end do not help him on defense.

[February 6, 2008 6:40 PM]  |  link  |  reply
stopmikelupica said

Wes: I like the post on your site about how teams should be entertaining, and that should be the case even if they are winning championships. It seems highly relevant in the discussion of this trade, and how it effects the "entertainment" value of these Suns.

But I don't care much for the argument that Nash's "physical tools" are the reason he can't play defense. That's a racial stereotype, in two directions: either you are saying Shawn Marion is "gifted", and that's why he's so good on the defense (as opposed to the effort he puts into his defense) or you are saying that Steve Nash is "retarded" by his lack of physical gifts. Like he's some uncoordinated dude, except, of course, when he's on offense!

Defense is all effort, period. We all know that. We all also know that scrub at the court, the one who sucks, but tries to make up for it by over doing it on the defensive end, right? Hell, some of us are that scrub! That's because defense is almost all effort. It's footwork, movement, anticipation. It's not "natural abilities", at least not on a professional-level. Everyone in the NBA, even the little white boy, has sick natural abilities. Nash's footwork (his soccer background) is part of the reason why he excels on the offensive end. With that footwork, he should be a stellar defensive player, too.

[February 6, 2008 7:51 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Jack Cobra replied to stopmikelupica

next time you go play ball at the playground try guarding a kid who is ten years younger than you. He's a pretty quick kid, right....well, Nash is guarding kids 15 years younger than him at an elite level....of course those kids are going to give him fits.

[February 6, 2008 7:25 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Prezs2ReprsntMe said

defense is not all effort in the pro level.
The playground scrub who tries hard and plays good D is not a great analogy, because in the nba you can't make as much contact with one on one Defense as in the nba, of course.

"footwork, movement, and anticipation" are not guaranteed with effort.

Effort helps, but "effort" wont get you to not fall for any of a guard's pump fakes , feints and crossovers, for example. otherwise david lee would be better at defense. we all know he sucks at D, and its not for lack of effort or practice.

just throwing that out there

[February 6, 2008 7:26 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Prezs2ReprsntMe said

*make as much contact with one on one defense as in the playground.

[February 6, 2008 8:39 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Joe said

I agree with everything you said sml except Hibbert.(rant at bottom)

Great trade for both teams. Miami worst to first? I doubt it. Bottom 4 in east to top 4 in east? Quite possibly.

I think most fantasy fans will find out the answer to a question they have been wondering for about 5 years. Is Marion a product of the system? If he is not, the Heat will be a 500 team from here on out possibly.

rant
Hibbert is not athletic enough to be great in the NBA. I would not spend a top 15 pick on him. Perhaps I would look mid 1st round if I needed a Center that badly.

You saying that is like saying Noah would have been the #1 pick a few years ago after the tourney. He was slotted there but by draft time he would have dropped quick to around 7. Hibbert will drop more. I like his effort and all, but I do not see him translating.

[February 6, 2008 8:40 PM]  |  link  |  reply
pedro said

you lost me there when you said that a PG is more important to the defense than a competent big. where did you get that from? the no-hand-checking rules made life a lot more difficult to perimeter defenders..which obviously increased the importance of defensively dominant bigs. sure nash could be a lot better on D, but the suns' playing style which is great for the regular season, not so much for the playoffs) lends itself just fine to him. he's quick, he's a great shooter, the best playmaker in the league, capable of turning pretty much anyone into wilt chamberlain (well, ok, not so much). on D, he's just there, won't give you anything special but he's not that much of a liability...[and tony parker is really underrated. seriously. guy's added a jump shot, he can penetrate like chris paul. he's money]

anyway, i don't think both ronron and bibby could be acquired so cheap. but yes, you're right, i guess, this deal is a huge turnaround for the heat...and i guess it also means the dorrell wright era is close to its end. hibbert and bibby can make them a playoff team, yeah. riles done good.

[February 6, 2008 9:46 PM]  |  link  |  reply
stopmikelupica said

Good feedback from everyone - thanks for the comments. Real quick:
@Prez: Defense isn't all effort... you're right, I'm overstating my case. But it, like rebounding, is more about effort and practice than people assume. My guess: if David Lee practice as hard at defense as he does at, say, hitting a 15-footer (that's what he's been working on in practice, right?), he would be better at it. A lot of David Lee's problems on defense, in fact, stem from two things he could easily correct - one, getting his hands up more, and two, not leaving his man to chase rebounds too early. So effort may not be everything on defense, since mental focus is also really needed. But I don't think defense requires "natural ability". I think people see someone like Marion (or Kirilenko, to even out the analogy) block a shot, and think that's all hops or length and nothing else. At lot of it is wanting to play tough defense. For the flip side, see Shaq, who could have easily been the most dominating defensive player in his prime, too, but never was. On the other hand, guys who were dominate at defense - Rodman, Jordan, Pippen, the Knicks - worked hard at that.

@Joe: Good point about Hibbert. Like I said above, I don't follow college basketball that much (since St. John's fell off the map); so yeah, I guess if ya'll are telling me Hibbert ain't going top-15, then fine. The Heat could still get a decent big man in the draft, right? Is Kevin Love the top big man?

Also, I'm not predicting from bottom to top for the Heat. But they could, if their plan is to keep Marion, and do something with those expiring contracts, turn things around really quick. Like you said - "from bottom 4 to top 4".

Pedro: I meant that playing defense on a point guard, or stopping a point guard, is more important nowadays than stopping a center. There aren't many centers that can hurt you or even take over a game nowadays. Almost all the best centers are finishers, not creators (guys like Camby, Chandler, Biedrins). Stop the point guard, and the center is not as dangerous.

So guys like Nash need to be able to play defense when it matters. Case in point: Deron Williams the other night against Chris Paul. We all know Chris Paul is one of the best points in the NBA right now; Deron Williams locked him up, holding him to 6 assists and barely double figure scoring. The Jazz won easily. It was the worst game the Hornets have had in a long time, and it's because Chris Paul was locked up. That's why PG's who can play defense are important, maybe even more so than centers. See Boston (one of the NBA's best defensive teams) and Rondo. They don't have a "strong" center, unless you really think Perk really is a beast!

[February 7, 2008 2:44 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Wes Hawk said

"That's because defense is almost all effort. It's footwork, movement, anticipation."

I hope that I don't force a devolution of the argument here.

Nash's offensive game thrives off of the fact that he can score from anywhere. We've all seen him get ridiculous open looks when a center or power forward plays off him at 5-10 feet from the tin because he's worried Nash is going to hit STAT or Matrix for a dunk.

Nash is sick with the off balance shots, deep ball, free throws, wide open looks. He can shoot and pass off the dribble, which he keeps going constantly. Probing, probing, probing, while his teammates run amok for open threes and dunks.

The point is this: his deadly shot and passing give him at least a half a step on offense. None of this counts for a shingle on defense. There's no such thing as an attack-three on defense (pass, shoot, dribble) unless it's steal/block/charge. He's not quicker or stronger than Chris Paul, whatever his level of desire or intelligence.

All that has nothing to do with racism.

[February 7, 2008 4:27 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Jethro said

SML: Love the arguments and points made. First heard the trade and wondered what the hell happened to the NBA...but it was a good (great?) move for both teams and you laid out the groundwork of why beautifully. Even the flawed (pretty extravegant) moves you project the Heat could make only serve to highlight how flexible their options are now.

On the Steve Nash defense thing: Who's quicker Steve Nash or Derek Fisher? Who's Faster? Who's has a better basketball IQ? Since the answer to all those questions should be "Steve Nash" or "Both" why is it that Fisher is a MUCH better defender? The answer is desire. Not physical ability, but desire. Or as once posted by the host here: effort.

[February 7, 2008 9:40 AM]  |  link  |  reply
stopmikelupica said

Jethro: Nicely put. The same also applies to guys like Bruce Bowen and Raja Bell - they aren't physically any more gifted than any other player, they just desire to be above average defenders. Or, to put it the other way... Eddy Curry lacks that desire. I think "desire" is probably a better word (less controversial) to use in this discussion than "effort". Thanks.

Wes: I agree that Nash's skills (which he has worked hard to hone) on the offense help keep the defense honest, and they have no impact on his defense. Alot of those skills - the knowledge of angles coming of picks, how to create space, knowing never to give up his dribble, and when to kick it out, etc. - those skills came from practicing and improving. Much like his 92% FT rate had to come from practicing. And practicing is, to use Jethro's word, a product of desire.

I would say natural ability/talent helps only in one aspect of defense - shot blocking. And even then, you still need to have desire (and timing) to be good at it. There's a reason why guys like Eddy Curry suck at it, but Tyson Chandler and Ben Wallace are great at it - because the former choses not to work on it, where as the latter duo work diligently on it. But I disgress... I agree that Nash's skill set is geared towards helping on the offense side more so than the defense side. The difference is that I just think that's because he chose to hone those particular skills.




Spring Training 08
































Site Map | Contact Us | About Us | Advertise With Us