That's actually not so bold a prediction. When I first started writing this post last week, the Blazers were in the top eight teams in the West. A loss, combined with Houston's 4 game winning streak (Warning to the rest of the league: Rockets may be starting to quietly gel) and the Warriors modest two-game winning streak has the Blazers in tenth place, a game and a half out of it.
Doesn't matter anyway. The following teams are near-locks to make the playoffs in the West:
1) The Suns
2) The Mavs
3) The Hornets
4) The Lakers
5) The Spurs
6) The Jazz
The Nuggets are very safe bets to make it, too.
That leaves the Warriors, Blazers, and Rockets fighting for the last spot. The Blazers? Their impressive 12-game winning streak (and 16 out of 17 run) featured three wins against the Jazz, and one loss. It also featured two wins against the Nuggets, and a pair of wins against the Warriors. Three different styles of play, from three tough teams with winning records, and the Blazers beat them a combined six out of seven times. Those are good victories.
They also beat the bad teams with losing records, including the Bulls, T-Wolves twice, 76ers, Sonics, Bucks, Grizzlies and Heat.
Now, take away all that, and the 27-20 Blazers are 11-19 otherwise. Since their hot streak ended, they are 5-7, but have failed to beat any of the good teams: loses to the Nuggets, Cavs, Rockets, Hornets, Magic, Celtics, and Raptors. They've beaten only the teams with losing records: The Knicks (barely), Hawks twice (both times barely), the Heat and the Nets.
Bottom line: This is a young team with some holes to fill (PG, Center) who will really good next year. But this year they don't have enough to beat the Rockets or the Warriors. In fact, you could argue that the Bulls, Knicks, 76ers and Heat all have enough talent to mount a run at a playoff spot in the East, and therefore are closer to the playoffs in reality than the Blazers are. Speaking of those teams...
2. The Pau Gasol to the Lakers trade will be over analysized and under scrutinized:
Or vice versa. I don't know what those words mean. But here are some interesting notes on that trade that sent Pau Gasol to the Lakers:
- The rights to Pau's brother Marc (currently playing very well in Spain) were sent to the Grizzlies from the Lakers as part of the trade. That's odd. Brother traded for brother... has that happened in the NBA before?
Brooklyn Ernestos' response: "Yeah, you know what... no matter how good Rudy does, no matter how much of a star he becomes... he still ain't ever going to sell jerseys!"
SML: "Damn, that's true."
BK Ernesto: "He should have done what Marvin did, and just add an "e" to the end of his name."
Chad Ford has a column up on the ten teams that could have traded for Pau Gasol. It's a good read, but here's my opinion on his ten teams:
1) The Spurs? Come on, why would the Spurs mess up their salary cap (and maybe their team chemistry), when they are already the team to beat in the NBA? And why would the Grizzlies, even if they took a half-ass trade offer from the Lakers, just give away Gasol to the Spurs? At least in giving him away to the Lakers, well... Jerry West must have been behind it.
2) The Suns. The Suns can't trade Shawn Marion and remain a 60-win team. Also, the Suns are a cheap team, hence they are trying to get rid of Marion's huge contract. Taking on a similarly expensive contract, but that runs longer, for a player with about 40-60% of the ability to fill Marion's shoes in their system... is utterly ludicrous.
3) The Raptors were an interesting option, but the Grizzlies are apparently looking to clear cap space (again, for what purpose I don't know... I can only imagine for making a run at Elton Brand) and the Raptors can't help them there. If the Grizzlies wanted young players with potential... a half-ass offer from the Bulls (say, Ben Gordon and Tyrus Thomas) would be better than accepting the Laker's half-ass offer. Point being: the Grizzlies were apparently looking mostly for cap space in this deal.
4) The Magic "offer" Chad came up with is actually worse looking than the Lakers - Javaris Crittenton is better than JJ Redick (and cheaper); Marc Gasol would have more fan appeal, is a better fit for the team position-wise, and is doing better right now, than Fran Vasquez (although Chad is correct in noting that Vasquez is a better prospect). The draft picks are not "better"... that's a weak misconception. If you put Gasol on the Magic, they could possibly end up with the second best record in the weak Eastern Conference, which is to say about 55 wins. The Lakers with Gasol are still minus Bynum, and in a tougher conference. The point being that if you look at the Lakers situation (pre-Gasol) and compare it with the Magic's situation (pre-Gasol), and try to guess which team would improve more with the addition of Gasol... my money is on the Magic, though it is very close.
5) The Hawks are a great trading option for the Grizzlies, but who knows if the Hawks are even able to offer a decent trade. They have long been one of the most poorly managed franchises in the NBA. Counting on them to make a decent offer is... a poor choice. Also in this group: The Clippers
6) Ditto the Bulls right now. They might be able to make a run with Gasol, not just for making the playoffs, but once in the playoffs they could have been very dangerous. However, they've made it clear that they don't want to part with certain parts of the team, and right now must feel a bit like the Heat (another team on the list): They don't need to do anything but take it easy right now. They can address "fixing" the team in the offseason, but for now they'll first wait to see what draft pick they end up.
In fact, I'll explain in the second half of this post why the Heat aren't going to be making any deals (big deals, anyway... maybe a few small ones) until the offseason. The Heat, Cavs, Knicks and Bulls are my four teams that people keep throwing into trade talks that are very unlikely to actually make a trade.
7) The Nets were the team that made the most sense to make the trade Chad Ford recommended. But trading almost their entire bench (six players!) in the middle of the season seems unlikely. Even if most of those players are important, the Nets would have no depth. Nachbar, Magliore, Krstic and Wright are all in their rotation. This would have been the Nets team (presuming Jason Collins still gets traded for Swift): Kidd, Carter, Jefferson, Gasol, Sean Williams, with Swift and Marcus Williams coming off the bench. Oh, and Josh Boone.
Not too many teams can win with only 8 players on their roster. The Nets would have had to sign the D-League all-stars to fill the squad, which wouldn't have been too bad. Too Much Rod Benson would have rejoined the team!
8) Oddly enough, even though it didn't make the list, I still think the Knicks proposed offer wasn't too bad - Eddy Curry plus Malik Rose and Fred Jones' expiring contract. It would make sense in that Rose's contract expires at the right time - 2009, not 2008. There's no point in having cap space this offseason, unless you think you can sign Elton Brand or Gilbert Arenas, provided they even opt out (coming off injuries that have shelved them both for most of the season... maybe not such a sure thing). At least in 2009 there is a strong free agent class.
Of course, as we mentioned at the top of this entry - the Grizzlies were not looking for players, just pure cap space. As for the Lakers... well, they add an All-Star. It'll take a while to work him into the triangle. By the time he finally starts gelling, then Bynum comes back adding another component that has to be worked in. I have a feeling this is going to end like the Nuggets last season... expectations will be high, and they simply won't live up to it this season. They'll get past the first round, but will be "upset" by a better second round team, like the Spurs or Jazz.
And they'll be a legit threat next season to win it all. Like the Nuggets are quietly this year.
Prediction #3: The Cavaliers will not make any big trades.
I keep hearing rumors about Mike Bibby. You probably have, too. Enough already.
I have big doubts about the Cavs pulling out a big trade, especially the rumored Mike Bibby deal. The problem is simple: the Cavs team is built a certain way right now, and they can't afford to dismantle the team in the middle of the season. Especially with the Cavs rolling - last week's comeback victory over the Blazers equals 11 wins in 13 games (again, I wrote this post last Friday).
In fact, the first few minutes of the game illustrate how this Cavs team is built, in case it isn't obvious. The Cavs have LeBron carrying a poor, poor, offense. But they will rebound the ball (top-3 rebounding team, just slightly behind Denver and Seattle), play tough defense on the perimeter, and do just enough to protect the hoop. The Blazers scored 2 points in the first 2 minutes of the game. Of course, yeah, it was only 4-2 after two minutes, right? Well, two minutes later... they were still stuck on 2 points. The Cavs were up 10-2 with 8 minutes to go in the first, and the Blazers called a timeout to regroup. The Blazers on pace to score a 24 points... for the entire game.
The downside of the Cavs team was seen in the rest of the first quarter. The Blazers lit them up for 27 points over the next 8 minutes (that's a 40-point quarter pace), by doing what few teams can do to the Cavs: they grabbed the long rebounds, ran a bit, pushed the pace so that the Cavs couldn't get set on defense. The Blazers took most of their shots in that span within 7 seconds of getting possession. That's up tempo. The end result? A 29-20 lead at the end of one for the Blazers, but a loss in the end.
So no, the Cavs won't want to part with Drew Gooden, or Anderson Varajeo, or any of those guys who contribute to their defense and rebounding oriented squad. They are still the defending Eastern Conference champs; they have the best player in the league; and they are only now starting to truly gel. Remember Boobie Gibson didn't emerge until the playoffs last season. Anderson Varajeo missed most of the first two months. Since he's come back, the team has been playing at a higher, level.
Who is expendable? Minor players. Shannon Brown, Ira Newbie. Probably Damon Jones. Guys who won't disrupt the team's game plan too much. They still think they are the team to beat in the Eastern Conference, and honestly, yeah, why not?
Will that be enough to land a Mike Bibby? Doubtful. Unless the Kings want to settle for the "Damon Jones plus Newbie plus some late first round draft pick" package, they'll hold on to him and wait until the offseason to move him. Then the Heat will be in play for sure (looking for Bibby, Artest or both), as might the Cavs if they have a disappointing postseason.
Until then, the Cavs are going to be tough to deal with. They're like that team in your fantasy league that's in first place... they don't want to mess up what they think is a winning team. So they'll deal, yeah, but very cautiously.
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Nah, you're underestimating these Cavs. Or really, you're overestimating the competition they face. Whereas the 76ers had to face a dominate Lakers dynasty, who really stands in front of the Cavs? We know they can dismantle the Pistons. The can probably handle the Celtics, too.
In the Finals? The Spurs again? Not likely - unless the Spurs finish with a flourish (and a top-two seed), they'll have three rounds of tough, tough competition. The West is going to be seven legit teams deep. That's alot of road games against good teams. It'll be a toss up out there - it could be the Spurs, the Hornets, the Jazz (my new darkhorse, even though I would not write off the Rockets just yet), the Mavs, the Suns, the Lakers, the Nuggets... and whoever wins is going to be pretty beat up.
Not that I think the Cavs are going to win a championship, but I do think they have a better chance than those overachieving 76ers teams did....
uhm, to me Cavs could deal Gooden, he's s nice player and I like him but he's overpaid and mostly they can cover that spot with Varejao with basically the same efficieny
so in case they can find a huge upgrade at PG (= Bibby) I can see them trading Gooden beacuse the loss at PF wouldn't be irrepleaceable
anyway we'll see
speaking of Knicks, how about Curry's 2 rebounds in 31 minutes vs Clips? I was thinking about worse rebounders among starting centers and the only name that came to my mind was Mark Blount
"My take on the Grizzlies? "What are they clearing all that cap space for?""
Same thought here.
They made the "Vince Carter to the Nets" trade look like a steal. Unbelievable. Another proof that the "There must be a reason if they are GMs and we are only fans" theory is pure Bulls'... hit
Rickhouse: Yeah, I agree that the Cavs could trade Gooden for Bibby and get better; I just don't think they will do that this season. I think they've had a plan, a system, from the top to bottom, in the organization. From the coach (as defensive-orient as they come) to the players they've acquired over the last two years, it seems to be that this is the team they want. And also, Mike Bibby isn't great on defense... I could see them pulling the trigger for someone like Sam Cassell instead. He fits in with their system a bit better than Bibby (who is at his best in the uptempo offense).
On the Knicks: Modi at Cosellout points out that when Randolph has been out of the starting lineup, Curry has averaged 66% FGs and 8.8 rpg. Not great for a center, but better. I guess Curry doesn't feel the urge to rebound when Randolph is out there!
I'm still a believer in the "they are the GMs for a reason" theory. Certainly they make mistakes, especially on talent evaluations. But generally, when it comes to planning, most GMs have a plan. What that plan is can be hard to see sometimes. It can be "build a fun team that will fill the seats and make us almost contenders", like the Suns and Warriors (sorry, but I don't believe either team's GM really believes or is trying to win the NBA championship); etc.
In the case of the Grizzlies... I can only guess they have their eye on a free agent this summer, and they really believe they can get him (I'm gonna guess Brand, but who knows). Or, maybe, because of the timing of the trade (three weeks before the deadline), maybe they are going to flip a few more trades. I don't think they can trade Kwame Brown right away, but maybe something else is in the works? Or maybe they can flip his contract in the offseason? I have to figure out how these things work exactly first...
I'm not Rickhous but anyway... ahahaha
"On the Knicks: Modi at Cosellout points out that when Randolph has been out of the starting lineup, Curry has averaged 66% FGs and 8.8 rpg. Not great for a center, but better"
This is completely meaningless, sorry. It's pretty obvious that with his rebounding buddy out, he HAS to grab some more boards and some more will fall on his head... point is, he is supposed to grab them also (and mainly) when they play together.
What do you expect him to do, get LESS boards with Randolph out? That would mean a "minus" before the number, LOL. Just joking, the point is that, like you said, he doesn't feel the need to do it !!
As for the "There must be a reason if they are GMs" theory, I have two words that destroy it: Billy King
Seriously, I think Grizzlies are just dumping salary to get ready to get sold, they have no long-medium term plan. The whole "we are creating a lot of cap space" theory is also funny sometimes, teams cut salaries but also players, fact is they will have to sign more later, unless they want to go with a 10 men roster...
If they are eyeing Brand, to name one, do they think he will come for free? No, he will domand Gasol-like money... so why getting rid of Gasol? To "free cap space" and then spend basically the same amount of money for another player? Older, in this case? Makes zero sense to me
good analysis SML. However, depending on when Bynum comes back AND the first round matchup, I have more faith in the Lakers this year. Next year, they are the favorites.
Ricky, the main point is not that Curry is a great rebounder because he will never be one, but moreso that Eddy and Zach are completely redundant on offense, while team-killing on defense.
Cavs of 2006-2008 = 76'ers of 2000-2002 by your description. Discuss.