But even in those cases, really, I can't criticize because almost everyone of those teams has something to show for themselves. So, as a Knicks fan the only GM I can roundly criticize, without hesitation, is Kevin McHale. That guy really, truly, objectively... sucks.
Now, back to Pat Riley. He's gotten a lot of flack for the shape of the Heat franchise. So, too, has Shaq. Listen, it's time we talk about the Winner Within. I hate Pat Riley, and I hate the Heat. You know, because I'm a Knick fan. They cost us our best chance to beat MJ in 1997. But I'm not here to diss Pat Riley. I'm hear to speak up on his behalf.
The Heat this year are in the situation the Celtics will find themselves in come 2010, when their possible 2008 title (if they win it this year) will end ugly: "sacrificing the long term for the short term".
Only one thing: This Heat team will rise quicker than you might think. One, they'll be $10 million under the cap thanks to the expiring contracts of Ricky Davis (more on him in a bit) and Jason Williams. Normally cap space doesn't mean much - most franchises just can't lure a free agent. Only 5 franchises (SML's 5 Attractive NBA Franchise Rule) will regularly be able to lure free agents, if they are under the cap: The Lakers, Knicks, Bulls, Heat and Magic. A couple of others - the Suns, and the Texas teams (Rockets, Mavs, Spurs), will be able to lure free agents if they are in decent shape, success-wise. That's it.
You think the Raptors have players (Jason Kapano does not count) lining up to play in Toronto in the winter? There's a reason Tracy McGrady, and Vince Carter, left for greener pastures. Think Kevin McHale is making the smart move in trying to clear cap space in Minnesota? Who the hell is ever going to sign with the T-Wolves?!?
And the plethora of second-tier free agent types clamoring to sign with the Celtics is an anomaly; they just want to win with Kevin Garnett and crew. This recent hasn't fixed Boston's reputation; believe me, black people still don't want to live there, okay? It might change, but it'll take a few more years, and that's not yet a given.
Back to the Heat. Free agents available this offseason? Try Corey Maggette or Ron Artest would fill the SF need. They are also perfect $8-10 million dollar players. Thanks to the shrewd trade of Pat Riley, in dumping Antoine Walker's horrible contract (more on that in a minute), the Heat can and might be able to sign one of those two players, both of whom are the rare free agent whose "team has given up on him". Again, those guys are very rare, and only if they even exist should you bother to clear cap space. Because, remember: If a team wants to retain it's free agents, 95% of the time it will. It has the upper hand.
In this case the Kings are not very likely to re-sign the head case that is Ron Artest. And the Clippers are too cheap to re-sign the oft-injured, but explosive, Corey Maggette.
Now add in the Heat's draft pick. It could be as high as a top-3 pick. That's potentially Michael Beasley, but given the SF's available in free agency, and that Shaquille O'Neal and Udonis Haslem are a decent frontcourt (if limited), the likelier scenario would be filling the PG need. Add Derrick Rose or OJ Mayo at PG, and that's a solid starting 5. Think Rose or Mayo, Wade, Artest, Haslem, Shaq. Still a little low on offense, but a tough defensive team.
Lastly, the Heat just need to get enough role players (cheap free agents this off-season include Trevor Ariza, JR Smith, Nenad Krstic, Michael Pietrus, Boki Nachbar, Matt Barnes, Michael Finley, Sam Cassell and, of course Robert Horry), a slightly motivated Shaq, and this team is bounce back material. They'll be short one instant offense type off the bench, but otherwise a team that can win the weak Southeast Division.
And this is a perfect example of why you need to ignore those fans/media types who scream "But you have to reshape yourself by free agency!" What? What team has ever pulled that off? The Knicks in the 90's (Allan Houston, Chris Childs) are the only team I can even think off that pulled off two major free agents in one summer. If you count Childs as "major". A few other pulled one major free agent off - Shaq in LA, T-Mac in Orlando (a direct result of the Shaq transaction). Neither Steve Nash (in Phoenix) nor Chauncey Billups (in Detroit) were "major" or "premier" free agents. Not anymore than Rashard Lewis this past offseason signing with the Magic was "major".
And here's what I really like about what Pat Riley has done with the Heat this season... the man somehow traded Antoine Walker. Walker's terrible contract. Walker's contract lasts until at least 2009, and probably until 2011 if he exercises his option, should have been untradeable. Thank goodness for the human dumping ground that is Minnesota under Kevin Garnett.
"Hi, I'm rebuilding the team by trading Kevin Garnett for the 5th best offer on the table. And while I'm at it, instead of continuing to clear cap space, I'm going to trade Ricky Davis' expiring contract (along with Mark Blount) for a guy who is going to be on my books for the next four seasons! At $10 million plus! If I was any stupidier, I would trade Theo Ratliff's expiring contract for Jerome James & Jared Jeffries."
Actually, maybe Isiah should phone Kevin McHale, just in case.
For the record, this post was inspired by this Miami Sun-Sentinel article about how Shaq should retire, to "save" the franchise . I'm getting tired of hearing about the poor conditions of the Heat franchise. We should all be lucky to have our favorite team win a title, be competitive for another year, have one down year, and then be able to bounce back quickly!
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True, they can't offer the full $10 million to Artest or Maggette, at least not in the first season. But both are really $8 million a year players, and the Heat could offer them an increasing contract (i.e. for Maggette, 4 years, $38 million, starting at $8 million and going up $1 million a year).
It's a possibility. We don't know the exact cap # for next year, but let's guess $62-63 million. The Heat have $52 million lock in now, presuming Smush Parker exercises his $2.4 million option. Speaking of which, maybe the Heat will play him more, with the season out of reach, and if he does well enough, he'll walk. Who knows?
But assuming he stays, $52 million. Dorrell Wright is a qualifying option at $2.4 million (if the Heat even re-sign him). That still leaves around $8 million. Plus a mid-level excemption (for Sam Cassell or one of his ilk). The rest of the team can be sign to minimum contracts (even if it puts them over the cap), which is how they sign the bottom 5 guys on their roster this year: Chris Quinn, Alexander Johnson, Joel Anthony, Penny Hardaway, Earl Barron.
Also, draft picks and choices can also be signed, even if they put you over the cap - so it makes sense for the Heat to sign a free agent this offseason, because the top-3 pick is going to add $4 million a year to the cap after this season (meaning they won't have another opportunity for a free agent signing until Shaq comes off the cap).
And I think Ron Artest could be had for as little as $6-$7 million a season, if you are willing to sign him for three or more years. There's not a strong market for him out there, and only like three or four teams are under the cap enough to offer Ron Artest anything other than a midlevel excemption. Given that Miami is a prime location, they'll have the inside track. Unless he really wants to stay in Sacramento (and they want to keep him), or unless Isiah offers him the midlevel....
I disagree about Chicago being a location that can easily sign free agents. Remember when they got so far under the cap but couldn't convince T-Mac or Grant Hill to sign with them? (By the way, that's a nifty double-signing by Orlando for one year, even if it didn't work out.) Chicago was stuck overpaying for the eminently forgettable Ron Mercer.
SML, good analysis as always.
Disagree with you about the general desirability of Chicago as a free agent destination though. Remember when they got so far under the cap a few years ago but nobody wanted to come and play for them? Grant Hill and T-Mac both spurned the Bulls to go and sign with Orlando (which was a pretty nifty twofer). The Bulls were left overpaying for the eminently forgettable Ron Mercer.
Good point, Marc. You're right: Chicago is probably more on the level of Texas, Phoenix, et al... people want to play (and sign) there only when the team is doing great. When they suck, fewer players are willing to give them a shot.
You know, no matter how bad the Knicks or Lakers or Heat get, people still desire to sign with those teams.
Both Maggette and Artest would have to opt out of the final years of their deals worth over $8M to become free agents. I kinda doubt they're going to then sign for less than that. Artest maybe, because he's a loon.
Anyway, I don't feel like I understand the cap enough to really argue these points. All I know is that according to HoopHype the Sixers are committed to $34M for next year with one unrestricted free agent (Iguodala), and their GM is saying they have between $10M and $12M in cap space. HoopsHype has Miami at $52M with one restricted FA (Wright) so I don't see how they could possibly have the same amount of actual cap space.
Yahoo.com has a similar article on Shaq
sorry just realized it was already posted, I read the Sun Sentinel one first...
Blounts contract is for almost identical money to Walker and for an extra year so no, dumping Walkers contract is not by any means a positive just because.
Do your re-search
Is re-search anything like research?
Blount is making $2M less than Walker next year, so Riley basically saved $2M against the cap this Summer. Ricky Davis' expiring $6.75M equals the $2M extra Walker will make and the expiring deals for Doleac ($3.5M) and Simeon ($1M).
Blount is still under contract for the following year, Minny has a team option on Walker.
I still believe any trade that rids you of Antoine Walker is a good trade, though.
The Heat can't pay $10M for Artest or Maggette. They're $10M under the cap right this second, but Dorrell Wright needs to be signed and more importantly, they only have 8 players signed. They have to fill 4 roster spots, minimum, with that $10M, which is probably more like $6M or less once they sign Wright.
Completely agree about McHale, by the way. How could he possibly trade an expiring contract for Walker. Unbelievable.