I try not to talk about politics on this site - real politics, anyway - and so I won't get into my political beliefs in this post.  I will not talk about who I am rooting for, who I am supporting (or voting for), and who scares the schizzle out of me.   This is purely a gambling-related post, if anything.

Let's look at the odds for each candidate, and evaluate, starting with the Republican candidates.  The four main Republican contenders:

1.  John McCain 3-1
2.  Rudy Giuliani  10-1
3.  Mitt Romney 12-1
4.  Mike Huckabee 25-1

Wow, Huckabee is the longest shot.  Odd, considering that he fits the religious conservative wing of the Republic Party the best of the four candidates.  Or maybe not odd, since it illustrates how the split between Republican Party and it's conservative religious base is growing. 

The Giuliani odds are a decent bet.  Despite his "failures" right now, it's been his strategy all along to skip the first six primaries, and show up in Florida.  And the results of the first few primaries have gone almost exactly how Giuliani's team must have hoped they would, with only one exception - McCain's sudden momentum.  But they must have hoped that the Bible Belt states would go Huckabee (they have), and the other states would go Romney. 

The re-emergence of McCain put a real dent in the Giuliani gameplan.  However, they are still banking on momentum making the difference in a crowded race; momentum and big state power.  The Giuliani camp has been banking on winning Florida (which it should, given that it demographic appeals to Giuliani that most - a state with  a high concentration of older, conservative former NYers who "remember" old NYC, and credit Rudy with "the turnaround").  If Giuliani can pull off the win there, he might regain the momentum going into Super Tuesday, where the game plan was simple:  again, win the big states, and get a commanding lead in delegates going into the Republican convention.  The hope for Rudy was that on Super Tuesday he would win the large states of California, New Jersey and New York State.

The problem:  McCain is currently holding a lead in NY State, according to polls, over Giuliani (36% to 24% in the latest poll).  Oh, and Mitt Romney is winning in Florida, too - latest polls have it 25% for Romney, 20% for McCain, and only 19% for Giuliani.  If Romney wins Florida, he regains momentum, and more importantly, has a nice lead in delegates going into Super Tuesday.

At 10-1 and 12-1, the best bet in this field right now might be Giuliani and Romney. 

The Democrats:
Hillary Clinton 7-5
Barack Obama 5-2

Those are your two favorites, with John Edwards quickly falling out of it (but still getting decent odds at 6-1).  Our take?  It's a 50/50 race between these two, with Obama having the better payout. 

Realistically?  It's going to come down to Super Tuesday.  And Clinton is going to most likely carry New York/NJ, meaning that Obama is going to have to win some big states (California) if he wants to make up the difference.

Latest poll results: Clinton leads Obama in NY (48% to 23%, as of 1/14/08); Clinton leads Obama in NJ (45% to 27%, as of 1/15/08); in California Hillary leads 47% to 31% (1/11/08 poll).

So the safe bet is on Clinton. 

Others:
Mike Bloomberg 5-1

If the presidential race does end up being Clinton against Romney/Giuliani, this would be the ideal conditions for a Bloomberg third party run.  In fact, it is what he's been banking on, and it appears he has guessed right (unless McCain holds on to win). 

With that in mind, the question is does Bloomberg have a legit chance to do what no other third party candidate has done in the 20th century, namely win a presidential election?  The political climate, especially the economic climate, dictates that he'll have the best chance of any third party candidate.  The last two third party candidates with any success - Ross Perot in 1992, and John Anderson in 1980 - both ran in economic downturns which helped drew support towards a third party candidate.  The 2008 campaign is likely to also take place during an economic downturn. 

We like the chances of Bloomberg running, and at 5-1 odds, while he seems unlikely to win, it's not a terrible bet. 


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