I can understand losing to the Mavs on Monday - they are a great team. As great as they are, though, they went into the game with a 13-8 record. They would go on to lose at Toronto in their next game two days later. They aren't exactly lighting up the court right now.
The rest of the teams in this losing streak? The 76ers, Bulls and Sonics are lottery bound right now (and most likely, except for Chicago, who still has a bit of a chance). Their records were a combined 23-56 before their games with the Knicks.
Those teams were winning less than 30% of their games before they played the Knicks over the past week.
The won 100% of their games against the Knicks in that span.
Time to sound the alarm, no?
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What move can the Knicks even make?
I. Coaching change.
Given that James Dolan isn't going to fire Isiah Thomas outright, and very few coaches with any kind of pedigree want to step in and work for both Isiah Thomas and especially James Dolan... the Knicks only option right here might be to have Isiah step down as coach, and put Herb Williams in charge. It'll be a symbolic change than anything else, but perhaps it'll allow for some spark in the players, particularly those who have quit on Isiah. Unlikely, but worth a shot.
II. Trades.
The Knicks' needs are pretty well known: a point guard who can distribute, a shot-blocking big man, perimeter defense/hustle, maybe a better outside shooter, too (since Q-Rich ain't doing it right now).
Their assets are more limited, but they do exist: expiring contracts (2008: Fred Jones; 2009: Malik Rose, Stephon Marbury), young cheap players (David Lee, Renaldo Balkman, perhaps Nate Robinson).
But let's start with Eddy Curry. Marc Berman of the NY Post is reporting that Eddy Curry is no longer "untouchable" in trade talks. Peter Vecsey has written earlier that Eddy Curry wants out. Isiah Thomas himself talked harshly about Curry, harsher than he's ever talked about any of his players in recent memory, yesterday. He said that Curry would probably never be a great rebounder or defender.
What can the Knicks even get for Curry? Well, his contract isn't that bad (about $9 million for the next two years, with player options for around $10.8 million for the two years after that). He's young, immensely talented, a high FG% interior threat who can command a double team, and a strong finisher who has yet to play with a point guard of any great passing ability (i.e. he could be a top alley oop candidate, as Crawford as shown... you think Nash or Kidd or Paul wouldn't get Curry like 3-5 easy dunks a game?). He can't rebound or block shots, but he does draw a lot of fouls (a sneaky way to "neutralize" the opposing center, if that center is any offensive threat), and is instant offense.
Which teams might need a low post player like Curry? The obvious one is the Bulls, though they would never deal for him in a million years. Still, if the Bulls traded Kirk Hinrich for Eddy Curry, would that be a bad trade for either team?
Hinrich for Curry:
The contracts are similar (actually, Curry's is better, since he could potentially opt out after two years, making him more salary cap friendly, lengthwise; otherwise they are the same in length); unlike Pau Gasol or Jermaine O'Neal, trading for Curry would not cost the Bulls "untouchable" Luol Deng, or even Ben Gordon. They could insert Chris Duhon at point guard, and not slip too much... hell, they've already bench Kirk Hinrich once this season!
This would be a good time for the Bulls to pawn off what might turn out to be a poor contract while Hinrich's value is still high enough, before it slips to where his four-year contract (one of the longest in the league right now) starts looking like an albatross.
On the flip side, the Knicks have Zach Randolph already, who is a solid inside scorer, and better defender and rebounder than Curry. His contract makes him almost impossible to move, but he's been the hardest worker on the Knicks this season (he had another big game last night, and was the primary reason they were able to get back into it in the 4th quarter). Considering he has absolutely no physical ability (other than being tall and large)... he can't "jump", and his arms aren't even that long, he's not "fast", yet he hustles after rebounds. He works long hours on his jumper, which has tremendous range for a big man. In short, he makes Curry expendable.
Hinrich would give the Knicks a tough perimeter defender, and a solid (but not spectacular) distributing point guard. He would be another hustle player on a team that right now is short on that. It would no doubt be a good move.
He also would give the Knicks another white guy for the fans to cheer, which in turn might make moving David Lee more manageable. Sorry, but it's true... David Lee gets preferential treatment from the fans.
The Greek Professor pointed out that while he was at the game on Monday against the Mavs, David Lee got the kind of love that "Brian Quinnett use to get back in 1990, and later Matt Fish got in the mid 90's". It was that "white guy love".
I'll give David Lee credit, for he is far better than those guys. Those guys were marginal players at best. But yeah, Lee is tremendously overrated.
The sabermetric types will tell you that his PER is terrific, and better than Randolph, so he should be getting more playing time, etc. The reality is that he's a talented player. In fact, he's more naturally talented than Zach Randolph; Lee has longer arms, same height, and more leaping ability. He's a quicker leaper, and has a quicker second and third jump. Or had. It was one of the quickest in the league last season, which is why he was able to secure so many hustle rebounds; this season his second and third jumps seem a bit slower, perhaps because of his leg injury from last season.
This is very telling, relative to Randolph: When Curry missed a game earlier this season due to a sprained ankle (which might still be giving him problems, since his FG% and numbers have really gone downhill since), it was Lee, not Randolph, who jumped for the opening tip-off.
David Lee will need an extension next season, or he will become a restricted free agent (who will get offers) in 2009. That means like or not, he will soon go from underpaid hustle player who rebounds really well to overpaid one-dimension player who can't defend very well, and whose offensive skills are atrocious. He has no jumper (not even a 10-footer), no real post moves (though this season he has added a bit of a spin move to his left, when he's posting down on the blocks), and in general is only good for two things: putback dunks and alley oops. Otherwise he can't create his own points. He's a poor man's Ben Wallace, minus the tremendous defense (or even average defense).
And his leg might make him damaged goods.
However, he is a valuable asset because most teams in the league would not only take a chance on him, but would give up a bit to get him. And add in his appeal to white fans (again, just stating the obvious), and most teams would take him.
Trade him along with Malik Rose to the Kings for Ron Artest and a future #1 (lottery-protected for a year or two).
Then the Knicks could go with a starting lineup (very small) of Hinrich, Q-Rich, Jeffries, Artest, and Randolph (two outside threats, two perimeter/post players, and um, Jeffries). Crawford would be instant offense off the bench. Balkman could also spell Jeffries in the lineup. Or Marbury could play SG alongside Hinrich (the Bulls often have Kirk guarding SG, while Ben Gordon guards the PGs, so it wouldn't be too different). Hell, maybe Jerome James could get motivated by the potential to start again, get into decent shape, and not foul three times a minute. He could then start at center, giving the Knicks a shot blocking presence (he is, sadly, the best the Knicks have in that regard).
Other potential trades: The Knicks could take a flyer on Damon Stoudemire, who has two years left at under $5 million a piece. That might cost them Nate Robinson and a young player like Randolph Morris. The Grizzlies might do it to give Mike Conley and Kyle Lowry a chance to get some starting experience for the team, and to puck up a decent young player like Morris (a first-rounder type talent).
The Heat might be interested in Marbury. The Knicks could take back Jason Williams expiring contract, plus the crappy contract of Mark Blount (three more years) in exchange for either taking Jerome James crappy contract back, or a future #1 pick (long term might = lottery pick).
Or better yet, the Cavs might want to roll the dice with Marbury. Though that seems more like a 2008 trade, if the Cavs aren't too happy with their playoff run this season... I could see them rolling the dice on one season of Marbury, in exchange for Eric Snow and maybe getting the Knicks to eat Larry Hughes contract, or, if not, than for Snow, Donyell Marshall, and Damon Jones, all smaller expiring contracts (that total Marbury's expiring contract) that would allow the Knicks to make multiple moves.
Those three expiring contracts could be used the way Isiah did to get a couple of late first round picks, like the one he got that turned into David Lee. He could just trade the expiring 2009 contracts to teams trying to stay under the cap, for a player whose contract expires in 2010, and a late first round pick. These are kinds of trades that Isiah made that made me appreciate his GM style a bit (very underrated, but shrewd, moves).
These moves might make the Knicks better now, and should give them assets for the future. They might also not make the Knicks better now, but really, can they get worse at this point?
III. Stay the course.
Regardless of whether the Knicks get better or not by making these moves, they are currently heading towards a top-3 pick. OJ Mayo or Derrick Rose might substantially improve the team.
One very important thing to note: Gotham Sports Radio wrote a nice outline of the Knicks potential future, pointing out that in 2010 the Knicks would be $10 million below the cap. Check it out here.
The 2010 cap:
It's a great site, and a nice post, but they are a bit off on that number. The Knicks have $58.3 million committed towards the cap in 2010; that includes $16 million for Zach, and $6.5 million for Jeffries. Those two numbers are locked in.
They have another 4 players with players options: $10.50 due to Curry (player option, which he might not exercise if he's really frustrated and wants out, but let's assume he does exercise the option), $9.35 for Q-Rich (a lock to take the money), $6.6 for Jerome James (another lock), and $9.36 for Crawford (50/50 like Curry, but let's again assume he takes the money). Total: $35.8 more, or a total or $58.3.
The cap might be at $68 million, though right now it's only set at $60 million, so I would guess $66 is more likely. Whatever the case, there is still this left:
David Lee would have to either be let go as a free agent (for nothing), or be re-signed. Re-signing him, at this point, is at least $8 million a year. Nate Robinson is significantly less, and in fact, the Knicks might just let him walk. But if not, he (or his replacement) would count towards the cap. Ditto Renaldo Balkman, who would also be up for a contract extension in 2010. Mardy Collins? Randolph Morris is due for a contract extension this season, or he'll walk.
Get the picture? Oh, yeah, one more thing: that top-3 pick we might be looking at this year... OJ Mayo, Derrick Rose, Kevin Love, whoever... he's gonna get top-3 money. If the Knicks pick third, in 2010 that's worth about $4 million (using Al Horford's contract as an example); it'll top out at $5.44 in 2012, before it's time to re-sign that pick.
So the idea that the Knick have much flexibility in 2010 is a bit off. In fact, even if Crawford or Curry walk, they aren't too flexible, not if they re-sign their guys like Lee, Balkman, et al.
More on Lee:
Again, one more reason why trading Lee is a good reason... you are going to have to spend the $8 million+ a season on him, like it or not (unless you want him to leave the team as a free agent for nothing, nothing, at all). Now, would you rather have Lee's one-dimensional rebounding for that price, or Artest's offense and defense, along with his rebounding, for that price? And, yes, I realize Artest is a bit of a risk, given his personality. But again, who would you rather have?
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One last point: I'm interested to see what happens with Randolph Morris this year. There are two approaches, I guess: One would be to see Randolph Morris getting big minutes soon, in the hopes of showcasing him for a trade. But that seems very unlikely, since it won't really "increase" his trade value very much. He is what he is... the cheapest first round pick in the league, with no lengthy commitments right now, and very little is known about his strengths and weaknesses right now. Unless he dominates or does really well, it's hard to see his value going up too much even if he's being showcased for the February trade deadline.
So the likely scenario is two, which is: very little playing time for Randolph Morris this year, hopefully keeping him cheap in terms of potential interest from other teams. Most teams wouldn't go for more than $2-3 million a year for him, so maybe the Knicks can make him a nice two-year offer (with an option for a third) at around $2-3 million a year, and lock him up for cheap right now. That is, if they think he's better than a development league player or something, which I'm guess they do, because they cut guys like Demetris Nichols and Jared Jordan to keep Morris.
I think this is the way it'll play out. Even if the Knicks go deep to the bench and use young guys like Mardy Collins and Wilson Chandler this season, Randolph Morris might not get too far off that bench, in an effort to keep his value low.
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Curry for Hinrich would be extremely interesting, but it's unlikely. Hinrich's play lately has been so absymal i'm fairly sure the Knicks would not want to make this trade. I've always defended KH in the past but it's getting harder now. He hasn't even been good defensively.
Actually...Hinrich's play of late has been excellent:
14.3 points, 9 assists, 5.5 boards and 50% fg's over the last four games.
Small sample...but I'll take it at this point since the Bulls are playing better.
Ah, Cobra has to defend the Paxson way! No seriously, I do think it could work for both teams, but would never happen (at least not this season). One, Isiah isn't giving up on Marbury yet. Or Curry, either. Two, the Bulls management so destroyed Curry in the press (see Jack Cobra's Pavlovian response at the prospect of a trade) that it would have a hard time selling a reversal, even if it pointed out, correctly, that this basically amounts to trading Hinrich for two lottery picks.
As for the Pavlovian response: Yes, Hinrich is a good perimeter defender. So is Deng, though, right? And Duhon is above average, no?
No, Curry in the lane defensively isn't going to scare the opponents. Does Joe Smith? Or Nocioni? I thought that was Ben Wallace's job, no? Point being, Curry as a PF (or moving Wallace to PF) equals a more balanced team. The Bulls get nothing from their big men offensively now.
They rarely walk the ball up the court... When did the Bulls become the Suns?!? They are as slow as the Knicks on offense. Curry will be fine on their team, and he'll do what he can do, which is hit 60% from the field, get hacked alot, and drop around 18-20 points (in 28-30 minutes of PT), snag a handful of rebounds, and draw double teams, open up the court for Gordon and Deng to take advantage (and Duhon for open threes).
Anyway, if such a trade took place (less than 10% chance), it wouldn't be until the 2008 season, in my opinion.
Nice article.
I like your analytical ability. And you have me leaning more towards giving up Lee in a potentail trade for Artest. But have you noticed that Lee is developing that "fundamental" face up 10 foot jumper.
It wouldn't work for the Bulls. Curry is not the kind of player they want. He may bring them low post scoring, but his lack of defense, rebounding, intensity, heart, will, and speed negate that. Plus, no way he's coming back without Paxson forcing another DNA test on him and we all know how Curry is going to react to that (yes, it's illegal).
Curry couldn't play PF for the Bulls because he can't hit a 15 foot jumper which the Bulls need their PF's to do with their drive and kick offense. If he played center, he doesn't have the intelligence or the passing ability to move the ball in and out of the post position. He just doesn't fit. I'd take Nazr Mohammed over Curry right now. I'd say there is a 0.1% chance of that trade happening. Just because the numbers look like they will work doesn't mean the players will work.
Duhon has shown that he can be a capable back-up PG and that's it. i wouldn't trust the guy to start games for the Bulls, so they'd have to throw Ben Gordon at the point and if they would do that they'd just have the same Crawford/Curry situation that NY would have if Crawford moved to the point there.
I could be off on the pace the Bulls play at. It just seems that when they are playing well they are moving the ball and moving around much more than other teams. That doesn't necessarily mean that they are taking more shots, just that their offense has a lot of movable parts in it, which is why they stink right now because they can't get in synch.
SML, overall nice analysis, but if I trade Curry, it is part of a package that nets a defensive big man in return. And tell me exactly why Hinrich would be such a good pick-up? Wasn't it YOU that showed in a previous post the similarities between Marbury's and Hinrich's stats recently. Is Hinrich such a lockdown defender that this equation changes?
Also, great point about Lee's leg injury last year. I don't think that he is fully recovered as he seems to have lost a bit of explosion. However, O& B is right, he is starting to develop a baby jumper...
I really enjoy what you write here,very insightful and smart. One issue though, I'm running Firefox in Linux and sections of your site structure are a little broken. I realize it is not really a widespread set up, yet it is still a thing to watch out for. Hope that helps and keep up the top quality writing.
The Bulls will never trade for Curry. If they wanted him, they would have signed him when they had the chance.
He would bring low post scoring to the Bulls but the Bulls would lose out on pretty much the only perimeter defender the Bulls have who is above average. Without Hinrich, more guys get into the lane...to Curry and that's not going to scare opponents.
Also, Curry is not in good enough shape to play with the Bulls. They rarely walk the ball up and down the court and dump it in down low. He certainly wouldn't make it through training camp with Skiles after the Bulls and Knicks gave up on him.