by Stop Mike Lupica on December 17 at 11:22AM
We'll start by reminding ya'll to check out the Free Agent Classes (2008, 2009, and 2010) post over here, now updated.
Next, here's your list of teams that are scheduled to be far enough under the cap this offseason to bid on 2008 free agents: Atlanta*, Charlotte*, Chicago*, Golden State*, LA Clippers, Miami Heat**, Philly*, San Antonio**, Seattle, Utah, Washington.
*Have restricted free agents on expiring rookie contracts who might cost a bit to re-sign.
**Not significantly under the cap to sign a top tier free agents, but might be attractive enough a location to get a "discount".
Atlanta Hawks:
They appear to be well managed in salary cap terms, but that's a bit misleading. The whole roster has only one "true" veteran - Joe Johnson. As almost ever other player on the team is on their rookie contract, the Hawks will either have to pay up (and thus raise their cap number) or lose what little talent they have.
First up, the Joshes: Josh Smith and Childress need to be extended this season, or they will be restricted free agents who can be signed to an offer sheet by any team under the cap. They might have some teams bidding on Josh Smith... maybe the Spurs (trying to force a sign and trade)?
In 2009 Marvin Williams will be in the same spot, then Sheldon Williams in 2010. Acie Law and Al Horford are good until 2011.
Presuming it takes about $8-10 million for Smith (which might be a low estimate, or perhaps a high estimate), and $6-7 million for Childress, that $15 million puts the Hawks at the max, with little room to sign a big name free agent.
Recommendation: However, they could, if they only had a GM, trade Marvin and Sheldon WIlliams (the Bills) to the 76ers for Andre Miller and fill their biggest need, while solving some of their future cap problems, too (by the time Miller's 2009 contract expires, Law IV will hopefully be ready to step in at point).
Boston Celtics:
Say hello to the new Heat. Like the Miami Heat, the Celtics sold their soul for a shot at the title, with the cap ramifications all but limiting any moves for the next, oh, three to four years. Hope they at least come off with a ring for all their trouble (actually, no... I hope they fail badly).
The Celtics are locked into $74.8 million next year, and $62.6 the following year. Come 2010 they have Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo as free agents; yet they will have $44.7 million tied up in KG, Pierce and Perkins. Considering they will still have to fill out those other 12 spots on the roster, expect the very minimal help on the way (minimal contracts also = not tradeable). With few draft picks left (two #1's going to Minny), um... maybe the NBA will change the rules to 3-on-3 half court?
Charlotte Bobcats:
Decently managed. They took on Jason Richardson awful contract, but let's face it... they weren't going to sign any free agents (other than their own, Gerald Wallace), so why not trade for Richardson?
Oddly enough, Brevin Knight is listed as $1.5 million for this season, despite playing for the Clippers. Was he brought out or something?
If they Bobcats resign Okafor (a restricted free agent next summer), let's say at $10-12 million a year, they will still have $10-15 million for another free agent. Not that there is anything worth signing in 2008. They could use a power forward (so Okafor can play C, Wallace can play SF, Richardson SG, and Felton PG); the best options would be Ron Artest (player option), Elton Brand (player option, but unlikely to cut out of his contract early), Shawn Marion (intriguing) and Antawn Jamison (not a good fit). Shawn Marion would be a good signing, though it would take Marion signing for less than what he's getting paid now ($17+ million), or Okafor signing a deal equal to what he passed up earlier ($10 million per year).
More likely they will stay put, and save the cap space. However:
In 2009, they have to resign Raymond Felton. Let's pen him down for a raise.
If the Bobcats resign Okafor this season, they may want to spend the extra cap money now, because resigning Felton next summer will almost cap them out (Wallace + Okafor + Richardson + Felton + Adam Morrison and Sean May = $50+ million). So they can go overpay a veteran now, cap themselves out, and still resign Felton the following year. Expect them to be this summer's Orlando Magic (wildly overpaying for a free agent). Again, Shawn Marion will be the target, but watch it end up being former Tar Heel Jamison they overpay.
Chicago Bulls:
While we often give the Bulls crap for their refusal to pull the gun on trades (thus wasting precious assets, such as PJ Brown's expiring contract last season, or Gordon and Deng's overrateness and rookie contracts), they certainly are among the best cap managers in the league. And I can't rave enough about how much I love those declining contracts that Wallace and Hinrich have.
The problem is this that while the Bulls only have $34.9 million committed to next season, they have to resign (or lose) Ben Gordon, Luol Deng and Andres Nocioni. Resign all three (or at least the first two) will put the Bulls at the cap.
We imagine that they will either let Gordon go, or trade him before then (Kobe?).
Also worth mentioning: While Isiah Thomas got ripped for his trade of the #2 pick for Curry in 2006, it may have actually reaped a nice cap benefit. Economically speaking, having a top pick in a poor NBA draft (poor = talentless) is bad for the cap. Andrea Bargnani, Tyrus Thomas, and Adam Morrison, for example, are all perhaps overpaid relative to their actual worth.
I doubt Isiah Thomas foresaw that, but it is worth mentioning.
Future Moves: Resign Deng and perhaps Gordon. We don't see them having the balls to make the big trade, though if ever there was a time for it, now would be it.
Cleveland Cavs:
Their roster is almost the same for next season as it is for this season, and was for last. Only Ira Newbie comes off, and only Daniel Gibson's free agency is of any concern. Resigning Boobie will push the Cavs to the cap come 09/10, too. Right now it's $45.9 million for LeBron, Ilgaukas (assuming he doesn't opt out, which seems a safe bet), Sasha Pavlovic and Larry Hughes. Boobie might cost at least another $5-6 million. And none of this includes what they will do with Drew Gooden and Eric Snow. Well, Snow will go, but the Cavs have to keep Gooden, don't they?
Our bet? They trade Gooden and Snow in Feb. 2009 for a longer contract (a Richard or Al Jefferson, or an Kirilenko. Also, perhaps a straight up Ilgaukas for Dalembert trade in 2009; Philly gets cap space for a free agent, Cavs get younger), and take one last stab at the title before LeBron opts out in 2010.
Dallas Mavericks:
Well, they have a terrible salary cap situation, but who cares? The team is competitive every season, and they operate like a big market team (like the Knicks). In fact, did you know their cap total is higher than the Knicks this season? Obviously they are getting more for their buck, too....
They have their core signed for a while: Dirk and Howard (about $30 million combined a year) for the next two seasons after this one, plus both have options for the third season. Jason Terry is around for four more years after this. Dampier is around for three more.
The rest of the roster will be filled out with mid level exemptions, rookies, and the such. The Knicks are basically trying to follow this business plan, but unfortunately without the same quality of players.
Future moves: Just keep re-signing current talent, and finding cheap talent... look for Brandon Bass to get an extension next year, if he stays in the rotation.
Denver Nuggets:
Right now they are in the books for $77 million next year, and still have to decide whether to re-sign Eduardo Najera or not. Not to mention JR Smith.
If they choose to go the money-saving route, and not re-sign them... I'm not sure why they would do that. They will be at $53 million at then end of 2008-2009, but that's because Iverson's $22 million contract expires. If they don't resign him, they'll only be $7 million under the cap, not quite enough to sign a top tier free agent. It's seems an unlikely route to go, especially since they are still on the cap for $45 million the follow year when Marcus Camby's contract expires (that's $45 for three players - Nene, K-Mart, and Carmelo - two of whom don't have bodies that make you think they will be starters in 2010).
The Nuggets will either trade AI in 2009, or re-sign him. Letting his contract expire and him walk seems very unlikely. Based on that, it seems likely to that Camby would be re-signed, and the Nuggets would hold tight until K-Mart's contract (2011) and Nene's (2012) expire.
This would be a prototypical example of SML's "Scott Layden Theorum": In a rebuilding process, you can only truly rebuild your salary cap when you finally get rid of your worst contracts. Until then, you might have well keep re-signing the good contracts (Iverson, Melo, Camby) and wait patiently for the bad to expire.
Barring trades, this is the core of your Denver Nugget franchise. There will not be any free agent signings, and any other team trading for an aging Iverson and/or Camby seems unlikely.
Detroit Pistons:
The Detroit Pistons are a model team for keeping a contender together under the salary cap. They do a good job of spacing out the contracts of their key core players, so that they don't have one of those ugly situations where everyone is a free agent at once (ahem, Chicago Bulls or Washington Wizards). Rasheed Wallace is next up at the end of 08-09 season. Also up is the rookie contract of Jason Maxiell.
2009-2010's end brings Rip Hamilton back to the table, then Prince (2010-2011), and finally Billsup (11/12).
At every year, the Pistons will be at the cap limit without really exceeding it too much, so as to not pay a luxury tax. For example, if they don't feel the Need for Sheed, then they have only $43.9 committed. Even if they re-sign Maxiell, they can still pursue a big free agent to take Sheed's place (Elton Brand?).
If they resign Wallace, probably at about $14 million or so, they will be at the $59 million mark again. When Rip's contract expires in 2010/2011, they will again drop down to the $45 million mark, depending on what they do with Rip and Amir Johnson. They can resign Rip, or replace him with... Joe Johnson. Or a two-year bid on Ray Allen. Or Steven Jackson. Or Michael Redd. Options all around.
In fact, one can argue that with only Nazr Mohammed's $6 million+ contract that runs through 2011 tarnishing their books, the Pistons have the best looking salary cap in the NBA.
Golden State Warriors:
Well, they've cleaned up nicely, haven't they?
They have the cleanest cap in the league, after dumping all their problem contracts on Larry Bird and the Pacers (and Charlotte, too). In exchange, they got... talent. And cap flexibility. Only Brandan Wright and Marco Belinelli (this year's two first-rounders) are signed past 2010. Their cap number for 2009 is about $30 million, making them very likely players that year, if not at the end of this season.
Now what will they do with it?
Biedrins needs to be re-signed, as does Monta Ellis. Baron Davis might opt out this season. The rest of the team is almost all free agents; Adonal Foyle (the last bad contract), Al Harrington and Stephen Jackson are signed for next season for $25 million total. Wright and Bellini are onboard, too. That's not a bad start (4 possible contributors in the rotation), but the Warriors might be on the market. Even if they resign Davis, Biedrins and Ellis, they might have enough money to offer a deal for... Josh Smith? Or Luol Deng?
Or they might be patient and wait until 2009 to spend the money (Kobe). Or 2010, when Foyle and Harrington come off the books.
A beautiful situation, for a team that had no business being significant this quickly. Old Chris Mullin started off badly, but quickly got the hang of this thing. Brooklyn represent.
Wednesday we will go from I-O.
Leave a comment
Next, here's your list of teams that are scheduled to be far enough under the cap this offseason to bid on 2008 free agents: Atlanta*, Charlotte*, Chicago*, Golden State*, LA Clippers, Miami Heat**, Philly*, San Antonio**, Seattle, Utah, Washington.
*Have restricted free agents on expiring rookie contracts who might cost a bit to re-sign.
**Not significantly under the cap to sign a top tier free agents, but might be attractive enough a location to get a "discount".
Atlanta Hawks:
They appear to be well managed in salary cap terms, but that's a bit misleading. The whole roster has only one "true" veteran - Joe Johnson. As almost ever other player on the team is on their rookie contract, the Hawks will either have to pay up (and thus raise their cap number) or lose what little talent they have.
First up, the Joshes: Josh Smith and Childress need to be extended this season, or they will be restricted free agents who can be signed to an offer sheet by any team under the cap. They might have some teams bidding on Josh Smith... maybe the Spurs (trying to force a sign and trade)?
In 2009 Marvin Williams will be in the same spot, then Sheldon Williams in 2010. Acie Law and Al Horford are good until 2011.
Presuming it takes about $8-10 million for Smith (which might be a low estimate, or perhaps a high estimate), and $6-7 million for Childress, that $15 million puts the Hawks at the max, with little room to sign a big name free agent.
Recommendation: However, they could, if they only had a GM, trade Marvin and Sheldon WIlliams (the Bills) to the 76ers for Andre Miller and fill their biggest need, while solving some of their future cap problems, too (by the time Miller's 2009 contract expires, Law IV will hopefully be ready to step in at point).
Boston Celtics:
Say hello to the new Heat. Like the Miami Heat, the Celtics sold their soul for a shot at the title, with the cap ramifications all but limiting any moves for the next, oh, three to four years. Hope they at least come off with a ring for all their trouble (actually, no... I hope they fail badly).
The Celtics are locked into $74.8 million next year, and $62.6 the following year. Come 2010 they have Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo as free agents; yet they will have $44.7 million tied up in KG, Pierce and Perkins. Considering they will still have to fill out those other 12 spots on the roster, expect the very minimal help on the way (minimal contracts also = not tradeable). With few draft picks left (two #1's going to Minny), um... maybe the NBA will change the rules to 3-on-3 half court?
Charlotte Bobcats:
Decently managed. They took on Jason Richardson awful contract, but let's face it... they weren't going to sign any free agents (other than their own, Gerald Wallace), so why not trade for Richardson?
Oddly enough, Brevin Knight is listed as $1.5 million for this season, despite playing for the Clippers. Was he brought out or something?
If they Bobcats resign Okafor (a restricted free agent next summer), let's say at $10-12 million a year, they will still have $10-15 million for another free agent. Not that there is anything worth signing in 2008. They could use a power forward (so Okafor can play C, Wallace can play SF, Richardson SG, and Felton PG); the best options would be Ron Artest (player option), Elton Brand (player option, but unlikely to cut out of his contract early), Shawn Marion (intriguing) and Antawn Jamison (not a good fit). Shawn Marion would be a good signing, though it would take Marion signing for less than what he's getting paid now ($17+ million), or Okafor signing a deal equal to what he passed up earlier ($10 million per year).
More likely they will stay put, and save the cap space. However:
In 2009, they have to resign Raymond Felton. Let's pen him down for a raise.
If the Bobcats resign Okafor this season, they may want to spend the extra cap money now, because resigning Felton next summer will almost cap them out (Wallace + Okafor + Richardson + Felton + Adam Morrison and Sean May = $50+ million). So they can go overpay a veteran now, cap themselves out, and still resign Felton the following year. Expect them to be this summer's Orlando Magic (wildly overpaying for a free agent). Again, Shawn Marion will be the target, but watch it end up being former Tar Heel Jamison they overpay.
Chicago Bulls:
While we often give the Bulls crap for their refusal to pull the gun on trades (thus wasting precious assets, such as PJ Brown's expiring contract last season, or Gordon and Deng's overrateness and rookie contracts), they certainly are among the best cap managers in the league. And I can't rave enough about how much I love those declining contracts that Wallace and Hinrich have.
The problem is this that while the Bulls only have $34.9 million committed to next season, they have to resign (or lose) Ben Gordon, Luol Deng and Andres Nocioni. Resign all three (or at least the first two) will put the Bulls at the cap.
We imagine that they will either let Gordon go, or trade him before then (Kobe?).
Also worth mentioning: While Isiah Thomas got ripped for his trade of the #2 pick for Curry in 2006, it may have actually reaped a nice cap benefit. Economically speaking, having a top pick in a poor NBA draft (poor = talentless) is bad for the cap. Andrea Bargnani, Tyrus Thomas, and Adam Morrison, for example, are all perhaps overpaid relative to their actual worth.
I doubt Isiah Thomas foresaw that, but it is worth mentioning.
Future Moves: Resign Deng and perhaps Gordon. We don't see them having the balls to make the big trade, though if ever there was a time for it, now would be it.
Cleveland Cavs:
Their roster is almost the same for next season as it is for this season, and was for last. Only Ira Newbie comes off, and only Daniel Gibson's free agency is of any concern. Resigning Boobie will push the Cavs to the cap come 09/10, too. Right now it's $45.9 million for LeBron, Ilgaukas (assuming he doesn't opt out, which seems a safe bet), Sasha Pavlovic and Larry Hughes. Boobie might cost at least another $5-6 million. And none of this includes what they will do with Drew Gooden and Eric Snow. Well, Snow will go, but the Cavs have to keep Gooden, don't they?
Our bet? They trade Gooden and Snow in Feb. 2009 for a longer contract (a Richard or Al Jefferson, or an Kirilenko. Also, perhaps a straight up Ilgaukas for Dalembert trade in 2009; Philly gets cap space for a free agent, Cavs get younger), and take one last stab at the title before LeBron opts out in 2010.
Dallas Mavericks:
Well, they have a terrible salary cap situation, but who cares? The team is competitive every season, and they operate like a big market team (like the Knicks). In fact, did you know their cap total is higher than the Knicks this season? Obviously they are getting more for their buck, too....
They have their core signed for a while: Dirk and Howard (about $30 million combined a year) for the next two seasons after this one, plus both have options for the third season. Jason Terry is around for four more years after this. Dampier is around for three more.
The rest of the roster will be filled out with mid level exemptions, rookies, and the such. The Knicks are basically trying to follow this business plan, but unfortunately without the same quality of players.
Future moves: Just keep re-signing current talent, and finding cheap talent... look for Brandon Bass to get an extension next year, if he stays in the rotation.
Denver Nuggets:
Right now they are in the books for $77 million next year, and still have to decide whether to re-sign Eduardo Najera or not. Not to mention JR Smith.
If they choose to go the money-saving route, and not re-sign them... I'm not sure why they would do that. They will be at $53 million at then end of 2008-2009, but that's because Iverson's $22 million contract expires. If they don't resign him, they'll only be $7 million under the cap, not quite enough to sign a top tier free agent. It's seems an unlikely route to go, especially since they are still on the cap for $45 million the follow year when Marcus Camby's contract expires (that's $45 for three players - Nene, K-Mart, and Carmelo - two of whom don't have bodies that make you think they will be starters in 2010).
The Nuggets will either trade AI in 2009, or re-sign him. Letting his contract expire and him walk seems very unlikely. Based on that, it seems likely to that Camby would be re-signed, and the Nuggets would hold tight until K-Mart's contract (2011) and Nene's (2012) expire.
This would be a prototypical example of SML's "Scott Layden Theorum": In a rebuilding process, you can only truly rebuild your salary cap when you finally get rid of your worst contracts. Until then, you might have well keep re-signing the good contracts (Iverson, Melo, Camby) and wait patiently for the bad to expire.
Barring trades, this is the core of your Denver Nugget franchise. There will not be any free agent signings, and any other team trading for an aging Iverson and/or Camby seems unlikely.
Detroit Pistons:
The Detroit Pistons are a model team for keeping a contender together under the salary cap. They do a good job of spacing out the contracts of their key core players, so that they don't have one of those ugly situations where everyone is a free agent at once (ahem, Chicago Bulls or Washington Wizards). Rasheed Wallace is next up at the end of 08-09 season. Also up is the rookie contract of Jason Maxiell.
2009-2010's end brings Rip Hamilton back to the table, then Prince (2010-2011), and finally Billsup (11/12).
At every year, the Pistons will be at the cap limit without really exceeding it too much, so as to not pay a luxury tax. For example, if they don't feel the Need for Sheed, then they have only $43.9 committed. Even if they re-sign Maxiell, they can still pursue a big free agent to take Sheed's place (Elton Brand?).
If they resign Wallace, probably at about $14 million or so, they will be at the $59 million mark again. When Rip's contract expires in 2010/2011, they will again drop down to the $45 million mark, depending on what they do with Rip and Amir Johnson. They can resign Rip, or replace him with... Joe Johnson. Or a two-year bid on Ray Allen. Or Steven Jackson. Or Michael Redd. Options all around.
In fact, one can argue that with only Nazr Mohammed's $6 million+ contract that runs through 2011 tarnishing their books, the Pistons have the best looking salary cap in the NBA.
Golden State Warriors:
Well, they've cleaned up nicely, haven't they?
They have the cleanest cap in the league, after dumping all their problem contracts on Larry Bird and the Pacers (and Charlotte, too). In exchange, they got... talent. And cap flexibility. Only Brandan Wright and Marco Belinelli (this year's two first-rounders) are signed past 2010. Their cap number for 2009 is about $30 million, making them very likely players that year, if not at the end of this season.
Now what will they do with it?
Biedrins needs to be re-signed, as does Monta Ellis. Baron Davis might opt out this season. The rest of the team is almost all free agents; Adonal Foyle (the last bad contract), Al Harrington and Stephen Jackson are signed for next season for $25 million total. Wright and Bellini are onboard, too. That's not a bad start (4 possible contributors in the rotation), but the Warriors might be on the market. Even if they resign Davis, Biedrins and Ellis, they might have enough money to offer a deal for... Josh Smith? Or Luol Deng?
Or they might be patient and wait until 2009 to spend the money (Kobe). Or 2010, when Foyle and Harrington come off the books.
A beautiful situation, for a team that had no business being significant this quickly. Old Chris Mullin started off badly, but quickly got the hang of this thing. Brooklyn represent.
Wednesday we will go from I-O.
Leave a comment
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4 Comments
Comments
stopmikelupica
said
Cobra: Thanks for the headsup. It's not listed on Hoopshype's site. Is it not official yet or something? Also, he's getting paid $8.5 million a year for this season... did he agree to a paycut?
Jack Cobra
said
he was a restricted free agent at the end of last season. Memphis was looking at signing him but Paxson swooped in and closed the deal in July:
Bulls re-signed Nocioni this past off-season.
Nocioni reportedly received $37.5 million US over five years,