by Stop Mike Lupica on December 4 at 2:45PM
| David West | Chris Bosh | |
 |  |
| 18.4 | Points per game | 20.0 |
| 9.1 | Rebounds per game | 9.7 |
| 1.9 | Assists per game | 2.2 |
| 1.7 | Turnovers per game | 2.3 |
| 0.8 | Steals per game | 0.8 |
| 0.9 | Blocks per game | 1.3 |
| 0.2 | 3PTM per game | 0.1 |
| 48.0 % | Field Goal % | 48.0% |
| 80.0 % | Free Throw % | 80.0% |
| Notes and analysis: We figured that even though Chris Bosh numbers a little low this year (versus his career averages, and what he did last year), he's going to do a little better going forth. This brings up one of my favorite sneaky trades (also one of the most useless ones, too) in the Rotisserie leagues: If you have a good lead in "points scored" over your nearest competitor, and/or "blocks", you might want to move Bosh straight up for West, to cut down on your turnovers (and pick up that occasional three-pointer that West sometimes gives you). And the vice versa applies if you own West - you might want to trade him for Bosh to get the minor improvements in points and blocks. Though Bosh has much higher upside potential, the numbers for the two players are surprisingly similar when both are healthy. And that's the other mitigating factor in this kind of trade - your expectations on David West's health versus Chris Bosh. Both have been known to miss games over the past two season for various reasons. Since Bosh is struggling a bit now with the injuries, if I was a David West owner I might offer a West for Bosh trade, if for no other reason then because West is probably due for his own nagging injury, where as Bosh has already gone through it. | ||
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Michael Redd and Kevin Martin
Realistic Projected Stats
24.0 Points per game 24.0
5.1 Rebounds per game 5.1
3.0 Assists per game 2.2
2.5 Turnovers per game 2.0
1.1 Steals per game 1.4
0.2 Blocks per game 0.1
2.0 3PTM per game 2.0
46.6 % Field Goal % 46.4%
86.0 % Free Throw % 86.0%
Notes and analysis:
First off... wow, how about those FT%? But you know what? Michael Redd's FT% isn't as helpful as Kevin Martin's. Martin gets to the line about two or three more times a game than Redd; therefore he helps "pull" up your team's FT% more than Redd.
Subtle.
Martin will also subtly help you in the steals category (he's good for about another 15 more steals if you make this trade with 50 games left in the season, for example). Redd, on the other hand, will improve your assists. Almost one a game = 40 more assists if this trade is made with 50 games left in the season.
Subtle.
Note the turnover differences, too.
Corey Maggette and Josh Howard
Realistic Projected Stats
20.0 Points per game 20.0
6.5 Rebounds per game 7.0
2.9 Assists per game 2.0
2.7 Turnovers per game 1.5
0.9 Steals per game 1.2
0.1 Blocks per game 0.7
1.0 3PTM per game 1.0
44.8 % Field Goal % 47.1%
82.3 % Free Throw % 83.0%
Notes and analysis:
Even though Howard is currently averaging 21 ppg, he's shooting a bit higher in the FG% than he normally does. We think 20 ppg is more realistic.
The majority of the categories are washes. What you are basically looking at is this: Howard has the blocks advantage (big subtle difference, almost... overt), turnovers and FG%. Maggette has the assists advantage (again, one assist a game may not seem like much, but it adds up). He also has a subtle advantage in the FT%. You see, even though his % is a little lower than Howard's (both are capable of hitting in the 85% range), Maggette is among the league leaders in FTAs every season. He gets to the line maybe twice as much as Howard. He'll effect your FT% more.
Another player to throw in this particular mix... the overachieving Manu Ginobili. A look at his projected stats:
Realistic Projected Stats
18.0 Points per game
4.5 Rebounds per game
4.0 Assists per game
2.1 Turnovers per game
1.6 Steals per game
0.4 Blocks per game
2.2 3PTM per game
46.5 % Field Goal %
83.0 % Free Throw %
Ginobili is off to a great start, but his numbers fall into the same grouping as Maggette and Josh Howard. Not as many points (we were generous; Manu is realistically a 16.5-17.0 ppg player), and he doesn't rebound as well, but he'll help your fantasy team in the assists and steal categories. And he hits more threes than either Maggette or Howard.
Keep in mind that Maggette has the higher injury risk.
I'm too tired to look up any more pictures... here's our next one:
Danny Granger and Rudy Gay
Realistic Projected Stats
18.0 Points per game 18.1
6.0 Rebounds per game 5.0
1.8 Assists per game 1.4
2.2 Turnovers per game 1.6
0.9 Steals per game 1.4
1.3 Blocks per game 1.0
1.7 3PTM per game 1.7
45.4 % Field Goal % 46.4%
80.3 % Free Throw % 79.0%
Notes and analysis:
These guys are harder to predict, because they are both having breakout seasons right now. That having been said, this is subtle differences in Rebounds and Blocks, and maybe FT% (Granger) for less turnovers and more steals (Gay).
One last one:
Chris Paul and Steve Nash
Realistic Projected Stats
19.5 Points per game 18.7
4.3 Rebounds per game 3.5
10.0 Assists per game 11.1
3.0 Turnovers per game 3.9
2.5 Steals per game 0.8
0.1 Blocks per game 0.1
0.9 3PTM per game 2.1
47.0 % Field Goal % 52.8%
85.0 % Free Throw % 92.0%
Notes and analysis:
Nash numbers over the past two years are incredibly consistent. Therefore, they are easy to project. Paul seems likely to outscore Nash (slightly) and outrebound Nash (slightly). Nash will have more assists, higher %s, and at least twice as many 3PTMs. However, the selling point for Paul (if you are trying to trade him for Nash) is that he will have less turnovers (3.0 would be higher than the 2.5 he averaged the last two years).
Okay, that's it for my suggestions on subtle trades you can make in Fantasy basketball leagues that might get you help in one or two specific categories without giving up too much else.
4 Comments
Comments
stopmikelupica
said
Chris Paul is awesome. In fantasy terms, he's worth a Jason Kidd or Steve Nash, which means he's a (late) first rounder. He won't have Nash's threes and high FG%, but what's most impressive about Chris Paul is how he manages to keep his turnovers at a decent clip, as opposed to Nash and Kidd (two of the top TO guys in the league, as most good point guards are).
Chris Paul as a real player is even better. He's just getting better and better every year, and despite the comparisons to Deron Williams (a fine young point), he's much better. Williams has a MVP-type player in Boozer, and solid offensive options like Okur and even Kirilenko in the offense. Jerry Sloan doesn't get enough props for his amazing regular season coaching.
Chris Paul is taking the Hornets to a similar 5th or 6th seed in the West, if the team can stay healthy. But he's doing it with lesser players... Peja and Okur are similar, but Peja has less mobility and height. David West is good, but he's no Boozer.
So, yeah... I'm a big Chris Paul fan.
Jack Cobra
said
Think about this one....when was the last time you called someone a great PG and didn't think they were a 'mature' person? Is there a correlation there?
Despite the fact that it looks all fucked up on my computer, i loved this post. Man how good is Chris Paul?