by Stop Mike Lupica on November 2 at 2:39PM
I know you're excited about these picks. Because I had a monster weekend last time... I went 9-4, and doubled my personal cash loot (which isn't that much, but which was perfectly timed, allowing me to make some long-term investments. In NBA futures).
Here's my picks this week:
1. Bills +1 vs. Cincinnati: I made two preseason bets on NFL wins/losses: Tennessee and Buffalo, both on the over. Tennessee is on pace to exceed 7 wins this season. I feel confident. Thanks to the Jets, Buffalo is on pace to exceed 5 wins. Okay, the Dolphins (Win # 4) are still on the schedule, so this right here is the Bills big chance. Win this game and I'm guaranteed no worse than a push.
2. Detroit -3 vs Denver. I really wanted to bet on Detroit in the preseason. I really did. But they made the damn w/l too high: 8 wins. Never the less, I still believe Detroit is heading to the playoffs. A big win versus Denver here will go a long way to making me and Kitna look like geniuses. BTW, I never understood why people would make fun of Kitna for saying he thinks his team could win 10 games this year. I mean, aside from the fact that, yes, they obviously can, isn't he suppose to say that? Isn't he suppose to give the fans some hope? Whatever... this is going to end with "ESPN sucks".
3. Tennessee -4 vs. Carolina. Oh Carolina. Wine your body, gal. Make dem no say you have it fi mad dem. Gal, prowl off. Gal, you fi jump and prance! (prowl off, jump and dance!).
4. GB +2 at Kansas City. I did not see the Packers coming in the preseason. But I've seen them now, and for the last couple of weeks I've been riding the Favre train. I'm not getting off until the train gets intercepted for the fourth time in this game, and returned all the way back for a touchdown. Is that a mixed metaphor?
5. SD -7 at Minnesota. One good running back does not mean that the Vikings don't suck. That's a lot of negatives, but basically... the Chargers have to crush from here on out to get a chance at home field advantage in the first round. So let the crushing continue.
6. SF +3.5 @ Atlanta. I have no intention of betting money on this game, or even watching it. I don't even want to watch the "highlights" of this game. Every week when I review how my picks performed the week before, there's one game that I have to look up, since I can't remember either the final score or what my pick was. This will be that game.
7. New Orleans -3 vs. Jacksonville. Everything I wrote about the Chargers is also true for the Saints, but with the added bonus that they could still end up with the #2 seed in the NFC.
8. NYJ +3 vs. Washington. One of the four losses last week was my NYJ pick (to beat the Bills). Listen, my Jets picks are always a bit biased. Kellen Clemens ain't throwing any touchdowns. I'm betting Chad Pennington will be back as QB before the season is over. I know these things, yet I'm still picking the Jets. It's called "Chained Fandom", and I'll do a post about it soon....
9. Tampa Bay -3.5 at Arizo. I like calling them "Arizo". The Bucs are just good enough to beat the bad teams, and maybe even make the playoffs, but not good enough to beat anyone good. In fact, they are the definition of 8-8, although they might finish higher because the schedule is skewered.
10. Seattle +1 at Cleveland. Okay, remember what I wrote about the Chargers and the Saints. The Seahawks are like that, but they are more talented than the Saints, and better coached than the Chargers. In other words, this is a good bet.
11. Indianapolis +5.5 vs. New England. Um, the Patriots are a good team. But the Colts are still the defending champs, right? And they are playing at home, right? DJM, Marathon Man, SML, Greek Professor... we're all gonna check this game out together somewhere. And I think most of us are pulling for the Colts.
Oddly, I remember at this same point last season betting heavily on the Pats. "The Colts will never beat the Pats in a big game", I told everyone. Wow, how quickly things change. The Colts have now beat the Pats twice in a row in the big game, and I'll go with momentum.
12. Houston +3 at Oakland. Oakland is much improved. I'm not sure why I'm taking Houston. I guess I just figure it'll come down to a last second field goal (it always does), and it's safer to take the points. But you know what: Read what I wrote about the 49ers-Falcon game.
13. Dallas -3 at Philly. Dallas seems like the better team. Andy Reid might just be a tad distracted this week. I can't even imagine how he found time to come up with a game plan to stop the Cowboys, with his son being sentenced to a few years behind bars for being a drug kingpin, and Andy himself being berated by the judge for being a bad parent and not noticing the loads of illegal drugs in his house.
But hey, that's just me. Maybe it won't be much of a distraction, eh?
14. Baltimore +9 at Pittsburgh. Best bet it.
Last Week: 9-4. Overall: 47-47-4. We finally made it to .500. Our best bets are up to 7-11-1 on the year, thanks to the Colts two weeks in a row. I was tempted to make it Colts three weeks in a row, but the Ravens just seem a better bet. I think it'll be too close a game for a 9-point spread.
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Here's my picks this week:
1. Bills +1 vs. Cincinnati: I made two preseason bets on NFL wins/losses: Tennessee and Buffalo, both on the over. Tennessee is on pace to exceed 7 wins this season. I feel confident. Thanks to the Jets, Buffalo is on pace to exceed 5 wins. Okay, the Dolphins (Win # 4) are still on the schedule, so this right here is the Bills big chance. Win this game and I'm guaranteed no worse than a push.
2. Detroit -3 vs Denver. I really wanted to bet on Detroit in the preseason. I really did. But they made the damn w/l too high: 8 wins. Never the less, I still believe Detroit is heading to the playoffs. A big win versus Denver here will go a long way to making me and Kitna look like geniuses. BTW, I never understood why people would make fun of Kitna for saying he thinks his team could win 10 games this year. I mean, aside from the fact that, yes, they obviously can, isn't he suppose to say that? Isn't he suppose to give the fans some hope? Whatever... this is going to end with "ESPN sucks".
3. Tennessee -4 vs. Carolina. Oh Carolina. Wine your body, gal. Make dem no say you have it fi mad dem. Gal, prowl off. Gal, you fi jump and prance! (prowl off, jump and dance!).
4. GB +2 at Kansas City. I did not see the Packers coming in the preseason. But I've seen them now, and for the last couple of weeks I've been riding the Favre train. I'm not getting off until the train gets intercepted for the fourth time in this game, and returned all the way back for a touchdown. Is that a mixed metaphor?
5. SD -7 at Minnesota. One good running back does not mean that the Vikings don't suck. That's a lot of negatives, but basically... the Chargers have to crush from here on out to get a chance at home field advantage in the first round. So let the crushing continue.
6. SF +3.5 @ Atlanta. I have no intention of betting money on this game, or even watching it. I don't even want to watch the "highlights" of this game. Every week when I review how my picks performed the week before, there's one game that I have to look up, since I can't remember either the final score or what my pick was. This will be that game.
7. New Orleans -3 vs. Jacksonville. Everything I wrote about the Chargers is also true for the Saints, but with the added bonus that they could still end up with the #2 seed in the NFC.
8. NYJ +3 vs. Washington. One of the four losses last week was my NYJ pick (to beat the Bills). Listen, my Jets picks are always a bit biased. Kellen Clemens ain't throwing any touchdowns. I'm betting Chad Pennington will be back as QB before the season is over. I know these things, yet I'm still picking the Jets. It's called "Chained Fandom", and I'll do a post about it soon....
9. Tampa Bay -3.5 at Arizo. I like calling them "Arizo". The Bucs are just good enough to beat the bad teams, and maybe even make the playoffs, but not good enough to beat anyone good. In fact, they are the definition of 8-8, although they might finish higher because the schedule is skewered.
10. Seattle +1 at Cleveland. Okay, remember what I wrote about the Chargers and the Saints. The Seahawks are like that, but they are more talented than the Saints, and better coached than the Chargers. In other words, this is a good bet.
11. Indianapolis +5.5 vs. New England. Um, the Patriots are a good team. But the Colts are still the defending champs, right? And they are playing at home, right? DJM, Marathon Man, SML, Greek Professor... we're all gonna check this game out together somewhere. And I think most of us are pulling for the Colts.
Oddly, I remember at this same point last season betting heavily on the Pats. "The Colts will never beat the Pats in a big game", I told everyone. Wow, how quickly things change. The Colts have now beat the Pats twice in a row in the big game, and I'll go with momentum.
12. Houston +3 at Oakland. Oakland is much improved. I'm not sure why I'm taking Houston. I guess I just figure it'll come down to a last second field goal (it always does), and it's safer to take the points. But you know what: Read what I wrote about the 49ers-Falcon game.
13. Dallas -3 at Philly. Dallas seems like the better team. Andy Reid might just be a tad distracted this week. I can't even imagine how he found time to come up with a game plan to stop the Cowboys, with his son being sentenced to a few years behind bars for being a drug kingpin, and Andy himself being berated by the judge for being a bad parent and not noticing the loads of illegal drugs in his house.
But hey, that's just me. Maybe it won't be much of a distraction, eh?
14. Baltimore +9 at Pittsburgh. Best bet it.
Last Week: 9-4. Overall: 47-47-4. We finally made it to .500. Our best bets are up to 7-11-1 on the year, thanks to the Colts two weeks in a row. I was tempted to make it Colts three weeks in a row, but the Ravens just seem a better bet. I think it'll be too close a game for a 9-point spread.
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