by Stop Mike Lupica on September 7 at 2:30PM
Yes, I'll address the Rick Ankiel story soon. Right now I'm laughing my ass off, though!
I wanted to take a look at the first four weeks of the NFL season, and see which teams I though might get off to slow starts, and which would get off to strong starts. Here are my opinions:
1. The SF 49ers:
Their first 4 games: vs. Arizona, at St. Louis, at Pittsburgh, vs. Seattle.
Analysis: Well, the two road games are sorta winnable, but not by this team. Alex Smith has yet to prove he can lead his team into a road victory. Not to mention that both the Rams and the Steelers have a strong home field advantages. Seattle is a tough matchup for the 49ers. They might win Monday night at home versus the Cards, but that's probably the best they can hope for to start the season.
Verdict: Jump off the bandwagon.
2. The Kansas City Chiefs:
Their first 4 games: at Houston, at Chicago, vs. Minnesota, at San Diego
Analysis: Well, okay: No one is on the bandwagon. I got it. But if anyone thinks they can do well, here's the deal: three road games, and the only home game is versus the Vikings. Yes, they can beat the Vikings. But they aren't going to win in Chicago or SD. And Houston is capable of beating them, unless the Chiefs can get pressure on Matt Schaub. A 1-3 start at best.
Verdict: Jump off the bandwagon.
3. The Falcons:
Their first four games: at Minnesota, at Jacksonville, versus Carolina, versus Houston.
Analysis: This team is screwed, they won't even let you bet on how many games they'll win. They are also Bill Simmons' sleeper pick for 2007, so let's look at how they can do... wow, they could conceivably win those games. Those are all four beatable teams, right? Even if you have to give the home field advantage to the Vikings and Jaguars, home against the Panthers and Texans isn't bad, right?
Sorry, we're still saying 0-3 start, possibly even 0-4. But we'll admit that it was a savvy pick by Simmons, seeing how easy the Falcons schedule is. Things could pan out for the Falcons.
Verdict: Don't get on the bandwagon, but if you are there already... sure, go ahead. Ride it for a bit. But be prepared for a fiery death.
4. The Green Bay Packers:
Their first four games: versus Philly, at NYG, versus San Diego, at Minnesota.
Bonus: at home versus the Chicago Bears the fifth week.
Analysis: Well, let's hope it gets cold in Wisconsin soon, because the Packers first three games at home are going to require every advantage they can muster - they are against the two top teams in the NFC (Philly and Chicago), and one of the top three teams in the NFL (the Chargers). Even their two road games are tough - the Giants and Vikings might both struggle to reach .500, but both are tough to beat at home. A 1-4 start for the Packers is very likely.
Verdict: No bandwagon to begin with, but bet heavily against this team if you can.
5. Minnesota Vikings:
Their first four games: versus Atlanta, at Detroit, at KC, versus GB.
Analysis: All four are very winnable. The two home games are should-wins; the toughest challenge might be the Lions. A 3-1 start is not unreasonable.
Verdict: Jump on the bandwagon early. Then prepare to jump off... the next four games for the Vikings are at Chicago, at Dallas, versus Philly, versus San Diego. Ouch. Can you say "midseason 4-game losing streak"?
6. Detroit Lions:
Their first four games: at Oakland, versus Minnesota, at Philly, versus Chicago.
Analysis: They can easily win the first two games. The next two are really tough. However, they then play at Washington (winnable game versus the D.C. team), and at home against Tampa Bay. A 4-2 start is possible; 3-3 at worst.
Verdict: Jump on the bandwagon, ride out the little storm in weeks 3 and 4, and hold on for the rest of the season. This team should be right around .500 or better for the season.
7. Seattle Seahawks:
Their first four games: versus TB, at Arizona, versus Cincinnati, at San Francisco.
Analysis: The first four are all winnable. The toughest challenge might be the Bengals coming in. A 3-1 or 4-0 start is not unreasonable.
Verdict: Forgotten by most in the NFC, with the discussion around the Eagles and Bears... jump on the bandwagon, as they will get off to a quick start this season, and maybe make a strong push for a playoff bye.
8. Baltimore Ravens:
Their first four games: at Cincinnati, versus the Jets, versus Arizona, at Cleveland.
Analysis: All four are winnable. The first two will be the toughest challenges, but the Ravens can win at Cincinnati, and hand the Jets a loss at home. Even if they split those two games, a 3-1 start is quite realistic. The next games after this are: at SF, versus St.Louis, at Buffalo. The Ravens should be no worse than 5-2 come their bye.
Verdict: They will get off to a quick start in the AFC, more so than the Pats (tough schedule).
9. Indianapolis Colts:
Their first four games: versus New Orleans, at Tennessee, at Houston, versus Denver.
The Titans game should be their toughest test early on (they already dismantled the Saints last night). They are a well-oiled machine in the regular season, and will get off to a fast start. Their only likely roadbumps: Jacksonville always gives them trouble (a season split is likely), plus the games against NE, SD, and Baltimore all loom as potential losses. If Tennessee musters a split, we see a 11-5 or 12-4 season in the cards.
Verdict: Sh*t, we should have given them more wins in our predictions post. Still, they'll get off to a quick start, but we won't know if they are really have a chance of going back to the Super Bowl until we see them play the tough teams in midseason.
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I wanted to take a look at the first four weeks of the NFL season, and see which teams I though might get off to slow starts, and which would get off to strong starts. Here are my opinions:
1. The SF 49ers:
Their first 4 games: vs. Arizona, at St. Louis, at Pittsburgh, vs. Seattle.
Analysis: Well, the two road games are sorta winnable, but not by this team. Alex Smith has yet to prove he can lead his team into a road victory. Not to mention that both the Rams and the Steelers have a strong home field advantages. Seattle is a tough matchup for the 49ers. They might win Monday night at home versus the Cards, but that's probably the best they can hope for to start the season.
Verdict: Jump off the bandwagon.
2. The Kansas City Chiefs:Their first 4 games: at Houston, at Chicago, vs. Minnesota, at San Diego
Analysis: Well, okay: No one is on the bandwagon. I got it. But if anyone thinks they can do well, here's the deal: three road games, and the only home game is versus the Vikings. Yes, they can beat the Vikings. But they aren't going to win in Chicago or SD. And Houston is capable of beating them, unless the Chiefs can get pressure on Matt Schaub. A 1-3 start at best.
Verdict: Jump off the bandwagon.
3. The Falcons: Their first four games: at Minnesota, at Jacksonville, versus Carolina, versus Houston.
Analysis: This team is screwed, they won't even let you bet on how many games they'll win. They are also Bill Simmons' sleeper pick for 2007, so let's look at how they can do... wow, they could conceivably win those games. Those are all four beatable teams, right? Even if you have to give the home field advantage to the Vikings and Jaguars, home against the Panthers and Texans isn't bad, right?
Sorry, we're still saying 0-3 start, possibly even 0-4. But we'll admit that it was a savvy pick by Simmons, seeing how easy the Falcons schedule is. Things could pan out for the Falcons.
Verdict: Don't get on the bandwagon, but if you are there already... sure, go ahead. Ride it for a bit. But be prepared for a fiery death.
4. The Green Bay Packers:Their first four games: versus Philly, at NYG, versus San Diego, at Minnesota.
Bonus: at home versus the Chicago Bears the fifth week.
Analysis: Well, let's hope it gets cold in Wisconsin soon, because the Packers first three games at home are going to require every advantage they can muster - they are against the two top teams in the NFC (Philly and Chicago), and one of the top three teams in the NFL (the Chargers). Even their two road games are tough - the Giants and Vikings might both struggle to reach .500, but both are tough to beat at home. A 1-4 start for the Packers is very likely.
Verdict: No bandwagon to begin with, but bet heavily against this team if you can.
5. Minnesota Vikings:Their first four games: versus Atlanta, at Detroit, at KC, versus GB.
Analysis: All four are very winnable. The two home games are should-wins; the toughest challenge might be the Lions. A 3-1 start is not unreasonable.
Verdict: Jump on the bandwagon early. Then prepare to jump off... the next four games for the Vikings are at Chicago, at Dallas, versus Philly, versus San Diego. Ouch. Can you say "midseason 4-game losing streak"?
6. Detroit Lions:Their first four games: at Oakland, versus Minnesota, at Philly, versus Chicago.
Analysis: They can easily win the first two games. The next two are really tough. However, they then play at Washington (winnable game versus the D.C. team), and at home against Tampa Bay. A 4-2 start is possible; 3-3 at worst.
Verdict: Jump on the bandwagon, ride out the little storm in weeks 3 and 4, and hold on for the rest of the season. This team should be right around .500 or better for the season.
7. Seattle Seahawks:
Their first four games: versus TB, at Arizona, versus Cincinnati, at San Francisco.
Analysis: The first four are all winnable. The toughest challenge might be the Bengals coming in. A 3-1 or 4-0 start is not unreasonable.
Verdict: Forgotten by most in the NFC, with the discussion around the Eagles and Bears... jump on the bandwagon, as they will get off to a quick start this season, and maybe make a strong push for a playoff bye.
8. Baltimore Ravens: Their first four games: at Cincinnati, versus the Jets, versus Arizona, at Cleveland.
Analysis: All four are winnable. The first two will be the toughest challenges, but the Ravens can win at Cincinnati, and hand the Jets a loss at home. Even if they split those two games, a 3-1 start is quite realistic. The next games after this are: at SF, versus St.Louis, at Buffalo. The Ravens should be no worse than 5-2 come their bye.
Verdict: They will get off to a quick start in the AFC, more so than the Pats (tough schedule).
9. Indianapolis Colts:Their first four games: versus New Orleans, at Tennessee, at Houston, versus Denver.
The Titans game should be their toughest test early on (they already dismantled the Saints last night). They are a well-oiled machine in the regular season, and will get off to a fast start. Their only likely roadbumps: Jacksonville always gives them trouble (a season split is likely), plus the games against NE, SD, and Baltimore all loom as potential losses. If Tennessee musters a split, we see a 11-5 or 12-4 season in the cards.
Verdict: Sh*t, we should have given them more wins in our predictions post. Still, they'll get off to a quick start, but we won't know if they are really have a chance of going back to the Super Bowl until we see them play the tough teams in midseason.
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3 Comments
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stopmikelupica
said
I think, of the stinkers last season, that Minnesota and Detroit have the best chance of making the jump back into the playoffs.
Oh, and St.Louis, too.
I forgot about St. Louis... somehow, I just don't consider them a bad team. They were more talented than their record indicates.
There are a lot of expectations on Detroit to be good. For Millen's sake, I hope they live up to the hype. But I wouldn't be surprised to see them go 8 - 8, maybe even 9 - 7.
If you have too many people on the bandwagon, is the wagon more likely to veer off the road and crash and burn? LOL
Sometimes the teams you expect the least of can surprise you... case in point, last year's Saints. Honestly who would have predicted they'd have that many wins?
But I'd be real careful about jumping on the Saints bandwagon. I don't think lightning will strike twice there.
Look at last year's stinkers.... is there a sleeper/New Orleans success story in this bunch?
Atlanta
Green Bay
Buffalo
LA Raiders
Miami
Arizona
Cincinnati
Houston
Detroit