by Stop Mike Lupica on September 4 at 2:05PM
In case I haven't made it obviously, I tend to gamble every once in a while. Nothing major, nothing that I can't afford. So far I've been pretty lucky, in that I'm sure I've come out ahead more often than not.
Even if you are not a gambler, it is worth seeing what the action is telling us. Aggregate knowledge. It's the concept behind futures markets; it's why the US government wanted to create a marketplace that allows for speculation on possible terrorist activities, because that's a surprisingly accurate way of drawing out the information. Bottom line, people with insider information, or just strong knowledge about a specific event, would be likely to bet on such an event occurring; it would become noticeable in the aggregate effect on futures. The best example I can think of? Every year a casino or sportsbook would allow betting on the hot reality TV show of the season... for example, who would win this year's The Apprentice (back when that was hot, of course)? They allow betting, and, without fail, they have to shut it down almost immediately because of "unusually heavy action" on one player - it then becomes pretty clear that player must have made it pretty far, if not won the whole thing outright. Keep in mind that reality shows are often pretaped, and have lots of editors, cameramen, and other insiders with knowledge of the outcomes, so the heavy betting could be coming from lots of sources.
Okay, with that in mind, let's look at the NFL action for the upcoming season. I took a look at the over/under for "wins" this season, and the action and lines for each team.
-Only 8 teams, or 25% of the NFL, are giving more money if you bet the over than the under. The significance of this is that this means betters are optimistic about 75% of the teams in the league, and that they will exceed their over/under number of wins. The Hopeless 8?
1. Chicago Bears - o/u = 10 wins. If you take the over, you get even money. The under pays -120. This is pretty much a sign that the Bears, according to the aggregate thinking, are a solid pick to win 10 games - no more, maybe slightly less. Action is pretty even, maybe slightly down. Keep in mind that the Bears a big market team; big market teams tend to have more optimistic betting, since their fans tend to support them. See "betting on England in the World Cup" every four years (their odds are often much lower than they realistically should be, because British bettors are going to bet on England no matter what).
So what does this mean? It means a lot of people are down on the Bears this season. Personally, I still think they are the best team in the NFC, although the Eagles and a surprise team (like the Rams) might give them a run. Oh, and watch out for the Cowboys, Saints and Seahawks, right?
2. Green Bay - o/u = 7.5 wins. Yeah, you would have to pay me +135 to even consider taking the Packers to win more 8 or more games. Seriously, why is the o/u so high? Shouldn't it be 6.5?
3. Kansas City - o/u = 7.5 (+130 for over). Oddly, I think KC is a significantly better team than GB. Yet I wouldn't bet on them winning 8 games, either.
4. Miami - o/u = 7 (+120). More like the Chicago scenario - just a very well placed Vegas line. We're going to avoid any lines that are this close.
5. NY Giants - o/u = 8 (+150). No one seems to believe the Giants will be mediocre this season. That's what losing Tiki Barber, possibly Michael Strahan, and just in general not looking like a good team will do for you. I would bet on the Giants going under, too. Especially if the Cowboys, Eagles and possibly Redskins are all improved or better.
6. NY Jets - o/u = 8 (even, -130 for the under). Money is on the under. A lot of people feel the Jets will take a step back this season. We would so milk this bet, and take the over, if not for our distrust of the offensive line. The Jets improved with the draft - all four players taken in the draft will play, and by the end of the season they will be major contributors. The Jets improved via trades, too - Thomas Jones may be slightly injured, but he's a big upgrade at RB. The offensively line might be unstable, and that might lead to a Chad Pennington injury, but Kelly Clemens seems like a solid backup (perhaps even an upgrade long term).
This team is winning not because of offense, anyway - they are winning because they have an opportunistic defense, and superior special teams. We will consider dropping a bet here, too.
7. Pittsburgh - o/u = 9. They have fallen off since the Super Bowl, huh? The line (even, -120 on under) seems to be indicative that the Steelers' line is dead on. We agree - we see the Steelers win 10 games at most if everything goes right, and no less than 7 or 8 games.
8. Tennessee - o/u = 7 (+140 for over). We would have taken the over for sure if not for Pac-Man Jones legal trouble and suspension (8 games). Say what you want about the man - he's not a star, but he and Vince Young teamed up to make the Titans the best team in the NFL during last November/December. They both played their part (remember Pac-Man Jones against the Giants last season). We still think Vince Young just wins games. But is 8 wins asking too much?
Now let's look at some of the other teams:
9. New England has the highest o/u at 11.5 games. Even with that number, they are still getting lots of action on the over, which is currently paying -145. So what do we make of NE's chances of topping 11.5 wins? Well, if the AFC East sucks like it has for the past few years, sure. But if the Jets, Dolphins, and Bills are improved, that might be a tough number to reach. We won't bet on 12, and are too afraid of what Brady can do with those wideouts to bet against it, too.
10. Speaking of the AFC East - the Bill o/u is only 6, and the "over" pays -105 (pretty solid payout). In other words, this team is not expected to do well at all. We think that the loss of Willie McGahee is a factor in their low ranking; however, the Bills have done a great job of getting their o-line fixed for once, and we think they can make some noise in the AFC. Not a playoff team, but definitely capable of topping 6 wins. In fact, at -105, it's worth a bet.
Some other really high win numbers:
11, 12. Indianapolis and San Diego have o/u of 10.5 wins. That's tied for second behind the Patriots. Our take - Indy always wins 11 games, but they may take it easy this year with the Super Bowl win behind them. The Chargers would have been the best bet, but Norv Turner is now their coach. Avoid both teams in terms of bets.
Some ridiculous heavy betting action:
13. Arizona's o/u is 7, but they pay -190 for the over. Evidently the aggregate thinking is that "this is the season the Cards finally become good". Matt Leinart time? Me thinks the people have spoken, and while we won't bet on the Cards, we won't bet against them either. And we'll pen them down for a magical 8-8, or even 9-7 season.
14. Similarly, Detroit o/u is 6.5, but they are only paying -180 for betting on the over. Now I don't care about the Cards bandwagon, but let me jump on the Jon Kitna Lions bandwagon - yes, they can hit 7 wins this season. Calvin Johnson has made me a believer.
15. Similarly, San Francisco has an o/u of 7.5, and -190 to bet the over. We thought 7.5 was surprisingly high - like the Packers, shouldn't they be have an o/u of 6.5? Well, the bettors have spoken - and they are almost positively giddy about SF winning at least 8 games this year. Me? Pass.
16. St. Louis has an o/u of 7.5, and a -190 payout on the over. Is that the generic line for the NFC West or something? Apparently everyone thinks the Rams, Cards, and 49ers are going to improve big time. If so, how about Seattle?
17. The Seahawks have an o/u of 9, with a modest -130 payout for over. If I understand Vegas correctly, anyone can win the NFC West. Avoid the Seahawks, 49ers, and Cards. I might roll the dice with the Rams, though. They could win 8 games. But paying -190 for it? Not worth the money.
18. Oakland has the lowest o/u with 5. Considering they have upgraded their Head Coach and QB, they should be better. On the other hand, their QB is still a rookie, and sat out most of the preseason. He might be Alex Smith, rookie year, all over again. I would still take the over, though. No team sucks for too long in the NFL.
Okay, enough analysis. Our best bets:
1. Buffalo, over 6 wins, paying -105. We see them finishing 7-9, which would cut it really close. On the other hand, -105 is the best odds you can get.
2. Baltimore, over 9.5, paying -140. We see them finishing 12-4.
3. Tennessee, over 7 wins, paying +140. We see them finishing 7-9, but 9-7 is also just as possible. It's worth +140 to roll with the Titans getting lucky one game or two. Vince Young!
4. Oakland to top 5 wins this season at -150.
Other predictions:
1. Detroit will top 6.5 wins. It's just not worth -180 to bet on that. If we could get better odds, we would bet on the over.
2. NY Giants will not win 8 games. It's not worth it, though, because everyone else is apparently on the "Giants will suck" bandwagon.
3. St. Louis will top 7.5 wins, but like Detroit, it's not worth -190 to bet on that.
4. The Jets will top 8 wins this season. But I'm reluctant to bet on them, since I might be a little biased.
5. Green Bay under 7.5 wins. Not worth -170 to bet on it, but still seems unlikely that they will go 8-8 or better. Actually, this might be worth a bet.
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Even if you are not a gambler, it is worth seeing what the action is telling us. Aggregate knowledge. It's the concept behind futures markets; it's why the US government wanted to create a marketplace that allows for speculation on possible terrorist activities, because that's a surprisingly accurate way of drawing out the information. Bottom line, people with insider information, or just strong knowledge about a specific event, would be likely to bet on such an event occurring; it would become noticeable in the aggregate effect on futures. The best example I can think of? Every year a casino or sportsbook would allow betting on the hot reality TV show of the season... for example, who would win this year's The Apprentice (back when that was hot, of course)? They allow betting, and, without fail, they have to shut it down almost immediately because of "unusually heavy action" on one player - it then becomes pretty clear that player must have made it pretty far, if not won the whole thing outright. Keep in mind that reality shows are often pretaped, and have lots of editors, cameramen, and other insiders with knowledge of the outcomes, so the heavy betting could be coming from lots of sources.
Okay, with that in mind, let's look at the NFL action for the upcoming season. I took a look at the over/under for "wins" this season, and the action and lines for each team.
-Only 8 teams, or 25% of the NFL, are giving more money if you bet the over than the under. The significance of this is that this means betters are optimistic about 75% of the teams in the league, and that they will exceed their over/under number of wins. The Hopeless 8?
1. Chicago Bears - o/u = 10 wins. If you take the over, you get even money. The under pays -120. This is pretty much a sign that the Bears, according to the aggregate thinking, are a solid pick to win 10 games - no more, maybe slightly less. Action is pretty even, maybe slightly down. Keep in mind that the Bears a big market team; big market teams tend to have more optimistic betting, since their fans tend to support them. See "betting on England in the World Cup" every four years (their odds are often much lower than they realistically should be, because British bettors are going to bet on England no matter what).
So what does this mean? It means a lot of people are down on the Bears this season. Personally, I still think they are the best team in the NFC, although the Eagles and a surprise team (like the Rams) might give them a run. Oh, and watch out for the Cowboys, Saints and Seahawks, right?
2. Green Bay - o/u = 7.5 wins. Yeah, you would have to pay me +135 to even consider taking the Packers to win more 8 or more games. Seriously, why is the o/u so high? Shouldn't it be 6.5?
3. Kansas City - o/u = 7.5 (+130 for over). Oddly, I think KC is a significantly better team than GB. Yet I wouldn't bet on them winning 8 games, either.
4. Miami - o/u = 7 (+120). More like the Chicago scenario - just a very well placed Vegas line. We're going to avoid any lines that are this close.
5. NY Giants - o/u = 8 (+150). No one seems to believe the Giants will be mediocre this season. That's what losing Tiki Barber, possibly Michael Strahan, and just in general not looking like a good team will do for you. I would bet on the Giants going under, too. Especially if the Cowboys, Eagles and possibly Redskins are all improved or better.
6. NY Jets - o/u = 8 (even, -130 for the under). Money is on the under. A lot of people feel the Jets will take a step back this season. We would so milk this bet, and take the over, if not for our distrust of the offensive line. The Jets improved with the draft - all four players taken in the draft will play, and by the end of the season they will be major contributors. The Jets improved via trades, too - Thomas Jones may be slightly injured, but he's a big upgrade at RB. The offensively line might be unstable, and that might lead to a Chad Pennington injury, but Kelly Clemens seems like a solid backup (perhaps even an upgrade long term).
This team is winning not because of offense, anyway - they are winning because they have an opportunistic defense, and superior special teams. We will consider dropping a bet here, too.
7. Pittsburgh - o/u = 9. They have fallen off since the Super Bowl, huh? The line (even, -120 on under) seems to be indicative that the Steelers' line is dead on. We agree - we see the Steelers win 10 games at most if everything goes right, and no less than 7 or 8 games.
8. Tennessee - o/u = 7 (+140 for over). We would have taken the over for sure if not for Pac-Man Jones legal trouble and suspension (8 games). Say what you want about the man - he's not a star, but he and Vince Young teamed up to make the Titans the best team in the NFL during last November/December. They both played their part (remember Pac-Man Jones against the Giants last season). We still think Vince Young just wins games. But is 8 wins asking too much?
Now let's look at some of the other teams:
9. New England has the highest o/u at 11.5 games. Even with that number, they are still getting lots of action on the over, which is currently paying -145. So what do we make of NE's chances of topping 11.5 wins? Well, if the AFC East sucks like it has for the past few years, sure. But if the Jets, Dolphins, and Bills are improved, that might be a tough number to reach. We won't bet on 12, and are too afraid of what Brady can do with those wideouts to bet against it, too.
10. Speaking of the AFC East - the Bill o/u is only 6, and the "over" pays -105 (pretty solid payout). In other words, this team is not expected to do well at all. We think that the loss of Willie McGahee is a factor in their low ranking; however, the Bills have done a great job of getting their o-line fixed for once, and we think they can make some noise in the AFC. Not a playoff team, but definitely capable of topping 6 wins. In fact, at -105, it's worth a bet.
Some other really high win numbers:
11, 12. Indianapolis and San Diego have o/u of 10.5 wins. That's tied for second behind the Patriots. Our take - Indy always wins 11 games, but they may take it easy this year with the Super Bowl win behind them. The Chargers would have been the best bet, but Norv Turner is now their coach. Avoid both teams in terms of bets.
Some ridiculous heavy betting action:
13. Arizona's o/u is 7, but they pay -190 for the over. Evidently the aggregate thinking is that "this is the season the Cards finally become good". Matt Leinart time? Me thinks the people have spoken, and while we won't bet on the Cards, we won't bet against them either. And we'll pen them down for a magical 8-8, or even 9-7 season.
14. Similarly, Detroit o/u is 6.5, but they are only paying -180 for betting on the over. Now I don't care about the Cards bandwagon, but let me jump on the Jon Kitna Lions bandwagon - yes, they can hit 7 wins this season. Calvin Johnson has made me a believer.
15. Similarly, San Francisco has an o/u of 7.5, and -190 to bet the over. We thought 7.5 was surprisingly high - like the Packers, shouldn't they be have an o/u of 6.5? Well, the bettors have spoken - and they are almost positively giddy about SF winning at least 8 games this year. Me? Pass.
16. St. Louis has an o/u of 7.5, and a -190 payout on the over. Is that the generic line for the NFC West or something? Apparently everyone thinks the Rams, Cards, and 49ers are going to improve big time. If so, how about Seattle?
17. The Seahawks have an o/u of 9, with a modest -130 payout for over. If I understand Vegas correctly, anyone can win the NFC West. Avoid the Seahawks, 49ers, and Cards. I might roll the dice with the Rams, though. They could win 8 games. But paying -190 for it? Not worth the money.
18. Oakland has the lowest o/u with 5. Considering they have upgraded their Head Coach and QB, they should be better. On the other hand, their QB is still a rookie, and sat out most of the preseason. He might be Alex Smith, rookie year, all over again. I would still take the over, though. No team sucks for too long in the NFL.
Okay, enough analysis. Our best bets:
1. Buffalo, over 6 wins, paying -105. We see them finishing 7-9, which would cut it really close. On the other hand, -105 is the best odds you can get.
2. Baltimore, over 9.5, paying -140. We see them finishing 12-4.
3. Tennessee, over 7 wins, paying +140. We see them finishing 7-9, but 9-7 is also just as possible. It's worth +140 to roll with the Titans getting lucky one game or two. Vince Young!
4. Oakland to top 5 wins this season at -150.
Other predictions:
1. Detroit will top 6.5 wins. It's just not worth -180 to bet on that. If we could get better odds, we would bet on the over.
2. NY Giants will not win 8 games. It's not worth it, though, because everyone else is apparently on the "Giants will suck" bandwagon.
3. St. Louis will top 7.5 wins, but like Detroit, it's not worth -190 to bet on that.
4. The Jets will top 8 wins this season. But I'm reluctant to bet on them, since I might be a little biased.
5. Green Bay under 7.5 wins. Not worth -170 to bet on it, but still seems unlikely that they will go 8-8 or better. Actually, this might be worth a bet.
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Remember, Green Bay plays 25% of its schedule against the Lions and Vikings. So don't be too quick to argue with the line (although if Driver's hurt, yes, they are under 7.5).
I like the Oakland and Buffalo; I think both teams are not that bad after all. But Tennessee? Who got lucky over and over again last year, just to finish 8-8? I don't see this. And Baltimore plays in a tough division, plus I get the feeling this is the year that great defense finally shows some age. Remember, Adalius Thomas was pretty important to them, and he's in New England now.