by Stop Mike Lupica on September 21 at 4:15PM
After last week's disaster (5-10-1), just trying to stay ahead of Signal 2 Noise right now. Overall SML is 16-14-2 on the season. Best bets are 2-6 for the season; solid bets are 4-3-1, and other picks are 10-5-1. In other words, I still at my best when I don't know what I'm talking about .
Best Bets:
1. SD [-5] at GB. The Chargers haven't clicked yet under Norv Turner, but this is week three, when the 2-0 fall back to the pack, and the 0-2 team get a win. In the NFL, everything gravitates towards the middle, and only a few can break free and escape that path. Green Bay ain't elite.
2. Buff [+16.5] at NE. Yes, the Patriots are good. The best, in fact. Yes, they should beat Buffalo. But 16.5 points? Give me that - this ain't college, and a 3 score head start is worth a few bucks.
3. SF [+9] at Pittsburgh. I hate road dawgs, but that's a lot of points being given to a decent team that might end up with a similar record to the Steelers by the end of the season. Yes, the Steelers should win, but take the points.
4. Tenn [+4.5] at New Orleans. No, the Saints aren't this bad, but Vince Young is good. On Monday Night, he might even show us how good.
Solid Bets:
1. NYG [+3.5] at Washington. Gravitate towards the middle, please.
2. Carolina [-4] at Atlanta. Not you, Atlanta. You stay where you are.
3. Minnesota [+2.5] at KC. Odd - I hate betting against the Chiefs in KC, but really... who thinks they can win a game?
4. NYJ [-3] vs. Miami. The only home team I've picked so far. No wonder I suck at these bets. In a battle of two 0-2 teams, the Jets have more need to win. Particularly Chad Pennington. This is actually our best bet of the week (perhaps month), but we dropped it down to here because of our "Don't bet on Jets games rule" - we are obviously biased. That being said, this is a very good time to put some money on the Jets.
Other games:
1. Houston [+6] vs. Indy. Indy is great, but Houston is not bad. They'll hang, like the Titans last week.
2. St. Louis [+3.5] at TB. We won't stop believing, Rams. Besides, the Bucs must suck.
3. Jacksonville [+3] at Denver. Coin flipped, came up Jaguars.
4. Seahawks [-3] vs. Cincy. Seahawks will be good. And if Cleveland can drop 51 on Cincy, look for the Hawks to score in the 70's. I'm guessing the o/u must be in the 50's. Take the over anyway.
5. Oak [-3] vs. Cleveland. Ah, the offensive juggernaut that is the Browns. Nah, take the Raiders.
6. Chicago [-3] vs. Dallas. Chicago can't score, but they will win.
7. Detroit [+6.5] at Philly. An 0-2 team giving up a touchdown? To a 2-0 team? Anyway, those ugly ass uniforms need to get beat.
8. Baltimore [-8] vs. Arizona. Matt Leinart < Kellen Clemens.
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Best Bets:
1. SD [-5] at GB. The Chargers haven't clicked yet under Norv Turner, but this is week three, when the 2-0 fall back to the pack, and the 0-2 team get a win. In the NFL, everything gravitates towards the middle, and only a few can break free and escape that path. Green Bay ain't elite.
2. Buff [+16.5] at NE. Yes, the Patriots are good. The best, in fact. Yes, they should beat Buffalo. But 16.5 points? Give me that - this ain't college, and a 3 score head start is worth a few bucks.
3. SF [+9] at Pittsburgh. I hate road dawgs, but that's a lot of points being given to a decent team that might end up with a similar record to the Steelers by the end of the season. Yes, the Steelers should win, but take the points.
4. Tenn [+4.5] at New Orleans. No, the Saints aren't this bad, but Vince Young is good. On Monday Night, he might even show us how good.
Solid Bets:
1. NYG [+3.5] at Washington. Gravitate towards the middle, please.
2. Carolina [-4] at Atlanta. Not you, Atlanta. You stay where you are.
3. Minnesota [+2.5] at KC. Odd - I hate betting against the Chiefs in KC, but really... who thinks they can win a game?
4. NYJ [-3] vs. Miami. The only home team I've picked so far. No wonder I suck at these bets. In a battle of two 0-2 teams, the Jets have more need to win. Particularly Chad Pennington. This is actually our best bet of the week (perhaps month), but we dropped it down to here because of our "Don't bet on Jets games rule" - we are obviously biased. That being said, this is a very good time to put some money on the Jets.
Other games:
1. Houston [+6] vs. Indy. Indy is great, but Houston is not bad. They'll hang, like the Titans last week.
2. St. Louis [+3.5] at TB. We won't stop believing, Rams. Besides, the Bucs must suck.
3. Jacksonville [+3] at Denver. Coin flipped, came up Jaguars.
4. Seahawks [-3] vs. Cincy. Seahawks will be good. And if Cleveland can drop 51 on Cincy, look for the Hawks to score in the 70's. I'm guessing the o/u must be in the 50's. Take the over anyway.
5. Oak [-3] vs. Cleveland. Ah, the offensive juggernaut that is the Browns. Nah, take the Raiders.
6. Chicago [-3] vs. Dallas. Chicago can't score, but they will win.
7. Detroit [+6.5] at Philly. An 0-2 team giving up a touchdown? To a 2-0 team? Anyway, those ugly ass uniforms need to get beat.
8. Baltimore [-8] vs. Arizona. Matt Leinart < Kellen Clemens.
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I liked that 49ers pick until I saw that Manny Lawson is done for the season. That definitely hurts that D against Willie Parker's speed.