Rickhouse over at Tremendous Upside Potential beat us to the punch (go check out his post here), but now that the Garnett trade is official, let's talk about how it effects the rest of the Eastern Conference. Here's my take on it:
First off, we have to once again take issue with Chicago, even though we hate doing that because that tends to draw those annoying f*cking fans over here to talk sh*t. Never the less, Chicago (and Phoenix, too) have to taken to task for not making the move for Garnett. Both teams had more to offer than Boston, but couldn't or didn't want to pull the trigger.
Phoenix, for all it's excitement and wins over the past three years, has yet to make it to the Finals. They have never struck me as a legit contender, despite all their success. They just don't have enough, especially defensively, to make the leap.
They won't this year, either. Grant Hill isn't the difference maker, okay? They are a fun team to watch, but the bottom line is they don't have enough defense, and their bench is very thin. Could they have traded Shawn Marion, the Hawks' pick next year, and a couple of their future #1's (which they love to trade anyway), for Garnett? I don't know. Marion does make a lot of money, making him perhaps not ideal for Minny, but his contract expires in two seasons (presuming he exercises his option, which he might not), so in terms of salary cap flexibility it's not so bad. I guess what was missing was the young stud (like Al Jefferson), but maybe Phoenix could have throw in Barbosa and kept the #1 from Atlanta? If so, then the 2 #1's they traded anyway (to get rid of Kurt Thomas) would have been equal to Boston's 2 #1's. You can argue that it's too much to offer, but Nash-Bell-Amare-Diaw-Garnett, with Grant Hill and Kurt Thomas (still on the bench) is a bad ass team. Lacking depth, yes. But they now have defense - Nash still couldn't guard anyone, but Garnett and Amare would erase his mistakes. And Bell is an ideal man to man defender.
Too bad the Suns' owner is too cheap.
Now Chicago, for all it's talent, once again refused to bring in a bonafide star. They need a low post presence. They still don't have one. I know there are a lot of "experts" who still think Chicago is the team to beat. I ain't an expert, and I ain't one of them. Until they have a legit low post presence, I'm not sold. Could they have made an offer for Garnett? Heck yeah.
If they gave up Ben Gordon (most expendable player - there are tons of SGs in the league), Tyrus Thomas, PJ Brown's expiring contract, and the #9 pick in this year's draft, they blow the Celtic's offer out of the water. Unfortunately, they didn't do it. You think Hinrich-Duhon-Deng-KG-Ben Wallace isn't a bad ass team? With Nocioni, Thabo and Sweetney still on the bench? Yeah, they would be a little weak in the perimeter shooting, but SG ain't hard to find. Maybe they can then sign a Kapano to a midlevel exemption. Not only do they have the #1 team in the Eastern conference, they would have undermined the moves that the Celtics and Toronto made; those two teams are now arguably better than the Bulls (arguably, not definitely).
One of the comments over at TUP, by The Zoner, made my conspiracy thinking mind ponder... what if Kevin McHale steps down soon as GM of the Wolves? If Danny Ainge's Boston Celtics win, doesn't he have room over at the Celtics' organization for McHale, a legend? Is it possible that this trade actually guarantees McHale a second chance down the line to be in charge of a NBA team?
Let's be honest, if life was fair, both McHale and Ainge would have been fired years ago. Instead they pool together their resources, and Ainge gets to keep his job thanks to his buddy McHale, who'll probably get a second chance in three years when the Celtics are hitting rock bottom again (they will, and they know it). No one finds that a bit alarming? Didn't Bill Simmons write an article pretty much jokingly implying that McHale just hooked up his old team out of "loyalty"?
Okay, let's get to how this effects the Knicks, and the rest of the Eastern Conference. Before this trade, the Knicks were probably ahead of the Celtics; it's hard to say that now. There is still too much that can happen - more moves, injuries, everything else - but here's how we break it down:
15. Indiana. Jermaine O'Neal needs to get traded to LA. Instead he will probably end up in Golden State. Regardless, this team is looking like crap.
14. Milwaukee. They haven't signed Yi yet. Even if they do, he still has his spot reserved in the Asian Hall of Failures, next to Hideki Irabu and Michael Chang.
13. Charlotte. I like the Jason Richardson trade, and J-Rich plus Gerald Wallace, Okafor, and Felton is a great up and coming team. But Felton is playing the point by himself this season (no Brevin Knight net), and it'll be a bit of a learning experience. The team is still too young to make a huge leap. Expect a good season, maybe just miss the playoffs, and a big leap next season.
12. Atlanta. Honestly, they should be 13, and Charlotte 12. I like Acie Law IV, though. He's not great, but he's tough, and he's willing to shoot the big shot. He's got the potential to be the next Mike Bibby. The problem is that Hawks aren't really a pick-n-roll team (where Law IV would really do well), so he'll be underutilized.
11. Philly. I like this team. They won't make the playoffs this season, though. And that's okay. They are rebuilding properly. With patience. I hated the Thaddeus Young pick (my least favorite player of the draft), but they made up for it big time with Jason Smith. He'll be a very good player in the league. AI2+Smith+Andre Miller = gold in two years. All they need is to stay patience, let the kids play, and get into the lottery again next year. Pick up another solid role player, and use their salary cap space (which will be free of Chris Webber's millions) to sign a top-flight SG... Gilbert Arenas anyone? This team is finally on the right track.
10. Washington. Not heading in the right direction. They had career-seasons from Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison last season. But because of injuries, they ended 41-41. Even when everyone was healthy, they seemed to have peaked early in the season. Classic example of a team with no depth. Antonio Daniels is nice, and hopefully he'll get more time this season. But with Butler and Arenas coming off injuries, and Jamison and Arenas playing for new contracts, next season is going to be more about numbers than chemistry and winning. And they still lack a serviceable big man.
9. Orlando. Yes, they add Rashard Lewis. But they also lost Grant Hill's veteran presence, and Darko's defense in the middle. This team has some good role players - Trevor Ariza, Redick, and Turkoglu - but they need a few more players to help out. Lewis is defensively mediocre, and Dwight Howard doesn't have enough offensive moves yet. Another trip to the lottery, and hopefully a decent signing next year of a point guard will turn this team into a real contender.
8. New Jersey. Any of the four remaining teams in the Atlantic can win it. All four should make the playoffs - that's what adding Ray Allen, Zach Randolph, Jason Capano, Carlos Delfino and Kevin Garnett does to your division. Tough call on how to place them, but the Nets are definitely making the playoffs. Jason Kidd is that good; VC and Jefferson have played together long enough now to know each other well; Krstic gives the Nets a much needed 4th option on offense, and Jamaal Magliore was a great pickup. Boki is a monster off the bench. Marcus Williams has to pick it up for an entire season. Sean Williams could be the next Camby. But right now the Nets lack a few things... mainly, the defense is very weak and can't guard anyone.
7. New York. Wishful thinking perhaps. The Randolph/Curry front court will make or break Isiah Thomas' career here. If it works, the role players are outstanding - David Lee, Balkman, Crawford, Q-Rich and Marbury are perfect in their roles, if limited. The key is getting the ball down low to the big guys, and hoping they can move it around. This team could get it together and win lots of games, or struggle trying to figure it out. It's too early to tell, but we'll bet that there will be plenty of both.
6. Chicago. Not that they dropped so much, but it's just that other teams have improved more. The Bulls are still behind the Pistons (who, in case you forgot, demolished them in the playoffs - it was 3-0 before you could blink) and the Cavs. Now, thanks to their offseason moves, the Raptors and Celtics have passed them, too. Tough situation for the Bulls. While they have patiencely waited for their "future", the window never opened. This is why you have to roll the dice sometimes. They should have made the push last year by trading for Pau Gasol. I think it is conceivably that if they can't break out of the 6-seed by the trading deadline that the Bulls will finally go after a low post presence, maybe Jermaine O'Neal (for Ben Gordon plus). But until then, they are just staring at the window, waiting for it to open even though it won't on it's own...
5. Toronto. Solid moves to add role players to a division-winning team. They have their core in Chris Bosh, TJ Ford, and Bargnini. Adding a shooter like Kapano to stretch the defense and a great bench player in Delfino will make the Raptors much deeper.
4. Boston. Three All-Stars. Kevin Garnett has won 50+ games before with less talent. They lack the role players and bench to go far, but with Eddie House signing yesterday, the possibility of more moves to solidify the team remains. If they sign Brevin Knight I'll give them the conference. More likely is a move for a PJ Brown type.
3. Miami. By default. Someone has to win the Southeast, which is now the weakest division in the NBA. They could pile up wins by beating up on poor teams like the Hawks, Bobcats, Wizards, and Magic. They managed to win the division last season even with Wade and Shaq missing lots of games. Presuming a healthy Wade and a now-motivated Shaq, this team should manage to win the most unimpressive 50 wins you'll ever see.
2. Cleveland. Check that. This team will manage the most unimpressive 50 wins ever. I was very tempted to knock them down a notch or two - they just aren't that good - but I don't see who is going to beat them. The Bulls? Still lacking a low post presence. The Raptors or Celtics? Perhaps, but they have some chemistry issues that need to be worked out during the regular season. In the meanwhile, the Cavs will chug along with little urgency, and somehow win game after game.
1. Detroit. Motivated for the first time in years. Still in their prime - Billups, Hamilton, Prince and Rasheed are all looking at hitting or starting their peak this season. Hard to say any of them are declining, at least not this season. Add in a deeper bench now that there is some experience among their youth - Jason Maxiell, Amir Johnson, plus a good mix of impressive rookies (Rodney Stuckey, Cheick Samb) and solid veterans (McDyess, Lindsay Hunter, Flip Murray, Nazr Mohammed). Once again the team to beat in the East. After cruising through the first two rounds, they wore out quickly against the Cavs (despite having a 2-0 lead in the series)... if they had a little more depth off the bench, they maybe they could have won one of those fourth quarters in games 3-6, and the series. They really could have used a Grant Hill type of signing, but otherwise... they'll be the team to beat again this season. But this may, in fact, be their last hooray.
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So then who gets knocked out, Rickhouse? You have the Bulls, Cavs, Pistons, Washington, NYK, Orlando and Charlotte. That's 7. What about the Nets, Raptors, Celtics (!)? It's a tough call.
I could see any of these teams making the playoffs, too: Bobcats, Magic, Wizards, even the Hawks and Bucks (especially if Ji signs and is legit).
And it's too early to really make predictions. But I guess what this shows is how tough, and yet still wide-open, the East is now. Not only do you have any number of teams that can make the playoffs, but most of them could pull it off, too.
yeah dude i dont know, give me until september to think about it, and i'll get back to ya. Could Miami and New Jersey be the odd men out?
Dude, Michael Chang won the French Open. At worst, he's in the Asian Hall of One Hit Wonders.
Michael Chang won the French Open at age 17. Give me a heaping helping of that kind of failure.
I don't know if anyone had mentioned it yet, but Michael Chang won the French Open.
By the way: "MC Welk"? That's totally Michael Chang under a pseudonym.
Nah, MC Welk is the realness from Utah. He's cool, unless you pop off about Jerry Sloan. Or Michael Chang.
Hey, did you guys know that Michael Chang won the clay-loving surrender monkey Open at age 17?
Fuck you, Chang! The French Open don't count.
very complete breakdown even if I disagree more than I thought. here is where:
1) Chicago is #1 seed to me and in any case it can't get lower than #3
2) Miami will struggle to make the playoffs to me. 7th-8th seed at best
3) no way Detroit is #1 with Nazr Mohammed as starting C... too big of a hole in the paint. he couldn't crack the rotation last year beating a 40 y/o Dale Davis and a one legged Webber... enough said
4) NJ will win the division, that's my take
Agree about Tor, Cle, Bos (4th seed to me), Orl, Was, Atl, NY
Maybe Charlotte can gain some positions in the ranking
My Sixers are what they are, I don't expect anything out of them other than developing yung players. I am ok with another trip to the lottery, I don't care THIS YEAR.
The FA Sixers fans would like to sign next summer is more Elton Brand than Arenas, Andre Miller has 2 yrs left on his contract and is a good PG so we are ok at that position
So Ricky, you think the Bulls can beat both the Cavs and the Pistons during the regular season? They have to beat both to make it into the top 4 seeds. I don't, which is not to say that they will suck (they won't), but that I just think the Pistons and Cavs are better. Until the Bulls get a low post presence, I don't see how they can pass those teams.
I agree Miami will struggle - if not for the fact they I think they will win the division, I wouldn't have them in the top-4. But the division winner gets a top-4 seed, and I don't see the Wizards, Hawks, Bobcats or Magic beating them. Maybe the Magic, but I think the loss of Grant Hill and Darko is being underestimated.
Detroit will probably go with a 3-man rotation of McDyess, Nazr, and Maxiell at center. I don't think Nazr will see too many minutes, even as a starter. Besides, he's still better than Perkins.
I suggested Gilbert Arenas because he's the best shooter available, and with Miller at PG, AI at SF, and Jason Smith at PF/C (Dalembert probably being the other starter), the 76ers are just one SG away from being very respectable. Arenas may not be a SG right now, but he is better suited to play that than PG, in my opinion (defensive might be a problem, but AI and Dalembert might be able to mask that).
Thanks for your feedback, some really good comments there.
Yes, it is WIIIIDE open. Some adjustment suggestions. Yes, I'm drinking the Koolaid and have Boston in #1 or #2 slot assuming they land Brevin Knight. Also, I think that Miami, depending if Shaq has anything left in the tank, might actually be fighting for that last playoff spot. Also, I think that Charlotte is too low. But what makes it all so interesting is that there are no doormats in the east really. Any team can grab that 8th spot...
Also, I see potential for the Pistons to start a big decline this year as Rasheed slows down
I'm not willing to comment on the Bulls until I see how they play in the pre-season but I do think the Pistons will struggle without a better presence in the middle. As someone stated earlier, they had a hard time last season until Webber showed up. Maybe Maxiell can pick up the slack, maybe he can't. Time will tell.
I'm not sure about Toronto either. Again, it's the off-season so I'm not up to date on everything
The Brevin Knight thing makes a huge difference in my opinion of the Celtics. Right now I'm not sold on them, especially since one of the big three is going to get injured if they play too many minutes.
But there are too many transactions yet to be made. In two months, when the season is about to begin, I'm gonna make ya'll make some predictions!
heres my take on the East
Indiana- poor JOneal...this team needs to completely rebuild. Bird absolutely shitted on the team with the troy murphy/dunleavy acquisition. Tinsley cannot run a basketball team. I see a midseason trade of Oneal for Draft picks and potential
Milwaukee- i see a Yi trade to GSW for brandan wright and other considerations. I really dont see Yi playing in Milwaukee. Regardless, this team has somewhat decent chemistry because of Mo williams playmakin ability. Bogut needs to step the fuck up. Not makin the playoffs next year
Charlotte- Hopefully Sam Vincent instills a fast court offense with jrich and wallace on the wings. Felton needs to step up big time and May needs to prove he can stay healthy. This team is a year away from making a big splash in the playoffs.
Atlanta- nothing about Atlanta has ever made sense to me. The shelden williams pick and marvin over paul/deron baffled me. They picked the guy most ready to contribute in Horford but they got absolutely robbed for Johnson by phoenix. Law will NOT excel in this offense, i promise you that. He is not a true point guard and that is what they needed. Conley would have been a better fit. Hawks aren't makin the playoffs for a while.
Philly- I love this squad. Puzzled by the pick of Thad young tho. Andre Miller is a true point and as long as AI2 continues to up his game, this team is a threat on a nightly basis. Dalembert is a joke though. Low lottery team next year.
Washington- Arenas is playing for his max contract next year. No way he stays with a mediocre Wizard team. This team can make the playoffs and do somethin if butler and jamison stay healthy. Nick Young was a good pick up but they need to resolve their issues in the middle. Low lottery to #8 seed at best.
Orlando- Giving Rashard Lewis a max contract will come back to haunt them. The loss of Hill and the potential of Darko (and his inside D) will be felt. This team has too many holes to compete for a playoff spot. Love Dwight Howard and Nelson. Reddick needs to bring back his Duke game, van gundys system is suited for guys that can make the open shot ( a la Kapono in Miami)
New Jersey- Shouldve made the risk of going after J. Oneal...richardson AND kristic was asking too much tho. New Jersey has great chemistry and Magloire WILL make a difference in the middle. If Kidd stays on his A-Game and healthy, this team can compete deep into the playoffs.
New York- I feel like Isaiah has an Artest trade up his sleeve. i wouldnt give up the gem thats David Lee up for him though. Why do you need Artest anyway? Balkman does everything he does, and without the attitude. Eddy Curry and Randolph are not good enough post passers for any of their shooters to make a difference. They now have 4 ball hogs (marbury, crawford, curry, randolph) who neither care for nor play Defense. This team is going nowhere.
Chicago- I'm glad the bulls didnt pull the trigger on Kobe/KG/*insert superstar here who would have depleted their whole roster in a trade*....The bulls have the best defense (detroit can make an argument here) and perimeter shooting and also chemistry in the Eastern Conference. I don't understand why people think the Cavs would have beat the bulls had they reached the E. Finals. The Cavs only beat Detroit becuz LBJ is superman. haha. Tyrus thomas is someone to look out for next year. Noah is a body to use against the new big guys in the East. Signing nocioni for that much money was a mistake, i wouldve much preferred a trade. They didnt address their need for inside scoring with a big trade or signing but Joe Smith is a great pick up. Thabo Sefolosha is gonna play with the big boys next year so he needs to step his game up. Bulls can finish no lower than 4th.
Toronto- ok....i dont understand, how did the signing of one dimensional jason kapono push the Raptors THAT much ahead of all the other teams in the East...cmon now. The Raptors are a great team however. Bosh and Bargnani are the future of the East. I think they need a slasher to complement Fords floor vision. MoPete did way more than Kapono is able to.
Boston- Ooooh, i cant wait to get the heat for this one. The Celts are quickly becoming the most overrated team in the NBA. Garnett is a Top 5 player. But this team is 1 injury away from the lottery. In my opinion, i dont think allen will last playing perimeter D on the quick, young wings playin in the East. His ankles will keep him out of action. Who is going to fill that hole? Pierce is consistent but neither him nor Allen plays any D. Rajon Rando is too immature to run this team and the 5th man in the starting lineup will get posterized nightly. I dont like this team's chances at all. Lower seed in the playoffs. Celts fans, stop acting like Brevin Knight, Eddie House, and (possibly) Mutumbo are gonna make you guys title contenders.
Miami- Shaq was done years ago. D-Wade is a beast. They need to figure out their SF situation. Pietrus would help a lot. Jason Williams/ Smush Parker at PG is terrible. Losing Eddie Jones to the Mavs will hurt this team late in the season when Shaq is siting out with back problems and D-Wade has no offensive support. Losing Kapono was big to them. I dont even like their chances of making the playoffs. I cant believe some of you rate them as top 3.
Cleveland- hopefully Hughes comes back completely healthy. This team really needs to make some changes now that the tide of the Eastern Conference is changing. I see bibby being traded here in a 3 team trade once Sacremento gives into a youth movement. Varejeo will stay with Cleveland but Gooden needs to go because he slows them down. Pavlovic will stay as well. This team needs to make some changes if they wanna get deep in the playoffs. Thanks to Lebron this team will be a 4 5 or 6 seed even if they dont. By the way, keep your eyes on Booby...[sorry i couldnt resist]
Detroit- I'm tired of Detroit. I really am. They are consistently #1 in the conference and even after all these changes, they still are. However, i dont think they can get to the eastern finals without the late season help and post presence of a Webber. They need to resign him and he needs to get his head in the game quickly. Keeping the billups prince hamilton wallace core is keeping them at #1. Their 3 man platoon at Center is viable in the Eastern Conference. I'm liking their depth as well because of the growth of their younger guys over the past 2 years.
My Prediction
1) Detroit
2) Chicago
3) Boston
4) Toronto
5) Cleveland
6) New Jersey
7/8
Miami/NY/Wash/Orlando
and Boston is only that high assuming G-A-P stays healthy
Entee: I agree with most of your thoughts - at least 85% of what you said is dead on. I just wanted to mention that the winner of the Southeast division has to get a top-4 seeding, which means Miami (or Orlando) is not competing for thte 7th or 8th spot, but for the 4th spot. That's why I put them as high as I did. I'm actually not sure why I put them #3 - I guess I thought that the while the Eastern conference teams might beat each other up (NYK, NJ, Tor, Boston, even Philly), the winner down south would probably end up with a good record, even if their team isn't as good as the East teams. So that's why I ranked Miami that high - in terms of talent, though, yeah, they are probably the 7th or 8th best team in the conference.
"So Ricky, you think the Bulls can beat both the Cavs and the Pistons during the regular season?"
Yes, definitely. As for the Bulls low post (lack of) scoring you perhaps forgot that they added Joe Smith, who has a lot of game left, I think. He can score those 8-9 PPG that Bulls need.
"Detroit will probably go with a 3-man rotation of McDyess, Nazr, and Maxiell at center"
And that's why they lost a step, I think. That rotation stinks (if you want to be a top team) !
"Besides, he's still better than Perkins"
LOL true !!
Sixers have actually a log jam at SG/SF (Iguodala, Carney, Korver, Thad Young, Willie Green + rookie Byars and other bums such as Bobby Jones.
that's why I think the position to address next year throgh free agency will be PF, even if I would welcome Arenas of course
You are right about Miami, I forgot the division winner thing, my bad
Bulls 6? Yikes. Looking at this really shows you how much better the East has gotten this offseason. I actually like to the Knicks to make the playoffs this year too (i cant believe i just wrote that), and i think Charlotte could sneek in as well. Orland i would i would think is one of the 6 best teams in the conference now. Even though Lewis is overpayed, i could see him averging around 25 this year. I actually think he's underrated, despite the contract. Washington should make the playoffs too, they were up near the top of the East last year before the injuries. I think Nick Young can have a big impact.