Yeah, I know, it's been a couple of weeks. Cut me a bit of slack, since I have been out of the country, okay?
Judging the trade is easy - like we've said already, the Knicks gave up almost nothing (Channing Frye in essence) to get an All-Star, and get rid of a terrible contract (Steve Francis). Bottom line, it's almost universally accepted at this point that the trade itself was a good move.
The question is: Can Randolph improve the Knicks enough for them to make the playoffs, or even more? And secondly, can Randolph and Curry coexist as the Knicks' starting frontcourt?
To this point, most of the comments we've read on the trade have been of the tone that the Knicks have "acquired another Curry". Time to clear a few misconceptions: first off, another Curry isn't necessarily a bad thing. We've talked about Curry's value, and potential alot. But this post isn't about that - it's about Zach Randolph. Make no mistake, he is not "another Curry", but an All-Star. A Western Conference stud.
First off, one of the knocks on Curry is his inability to rebound, right? Well Randolph can rebound. He averaged over 10 rpg last season. He was 13th overall in the league in double-doubles. He was one of five 20/10 players... the rest of the list? Chris Bosh. Kevin Garnett. Carl Boozer. Tim Duncan. That's some stellar company, right?
Secondly, he is replacing Channing Frye. That's last year's starting PF. His average? 5.5 rpg. The Knicks, already one of the top rebounding teams in the leagues, have actually just increased their rebounding ability by replacing Frye with Randolph.
Also, the knock on Curry, and now the knock being used to bring Randolph down, is that he doesn't play hard defense. Okay, admittedly his block and steal numbers are poor - he's not Ben Wallace or Marcus Camby. But, again... he is taking Channing Frye's place. Frye was a decent on the ball defender, but it's not like the Knicks' defense is taking a big hit here. Plus we are talking about the Eastern Conference... which big man is going to kill the Knicks? The best PF/C's in the East are: Dwight Howard (no strong offensive moves yet), Chris Bosh, healthy motivated Shaq (question mark if he still exists), Okafor (see Howard, but add a couple of moves), and Rasheed Wallace (who hangs out on the perimeter anyway).
As for help defense... well, yes, Curry and Randolph are terrible. If the opposing team's smaller players get past the Knicks' backcourt, yes, they will probably not get much of a fight from Zach and Eddy. But keep in mind that Marbury, Crawford and Richardson (the Knick's other starting three) are all decent defenders, and Balkman will get a lot of time in the rotation (along with David Lee and a TBD backup point guard). Those are good defenders. The Knicks won't be a top defensive team, but they won't be the worst, either. And they will be a top rebounding team, and if all works like it is suppose to, a top offense team thanks to their in-and-out game (great post scorers + solid perimeter shooters).
Turnovers will be a key. Randolph and Curry are both high turnover guys. That can be partially attributed to the fact they were their respective teams' only post threat last season. I don't know much about Randolph, but here's the deal with Curry - he has great quick feet, and doesn't turn the ball over on receiving interior passes. In fact, if he did, it would not count as a turnover for Curry statistically - it would be charged to the passer (see Collins, Mardy). So obviously that's not the source of his turnovers. Rather, it is when he gets doubled and tripled (which happened alot last season)... he then has to put the ball on the floor and make a move on multiple defenders. If he is quick enough to make the move before the double engulfs him (we've seen that quite a bit), no sweat. If not, this becomes a 50/50 proposition - either he gets fouled (he was in the top 10 in FTAs last season for a reason), or he gets stripped. I imagine Randolph works the same way, but with more offensive moves (since he has a higher scoring average). For the record, Dwight Howard is an even worse example of this - his turnover rate (as any fantasy basketball owner can tell you) is worse than either Randolph or Curry. It's practically the worst in the NBA.
The Knicks might be able to avoid the turnovers from the big men, because teams will be hesitant to double the post, especially if the big men (Randolph is pretty good at this, it remains to be seen if Curry can adapt) can swing the ball back to the guards once the double team commits, allow them to move the ball quickly around the perimeter to get to the open man.
Also keep this in mind: Alot has been made of Randolph (a 35.7 mpg player) taking Frye's (26.5 mpg) place, and the effect it might have on David Lee's minutes. After all, those 9 minutes have to come from somewhere, right? David Berri, of Wages of Wins fame, has a post on his journal about how Lee is going to lose minutes because of the trade.
First off, Curry averaged a career-high 35.2 mpg last season. His career average is about 25 mpg. He's most efficient in the 28-32 mpg range. Expect Isiah to rest him a bit more now that he has a viable option he can use at the center position. Now, on the other hand, if Curry plus Randolph is too dominating for the opposing team to stop, he's going to play them more - therefore, who cares if David Lee is on the bench? If they aren't dominating, he'll get Lee in the game more. It's really that simple, no need to complicate the matter.
All three players have really high EFF - Curry is +16.16, Lee is +19.21, and Randolph was +22.40 last season, or good for #20 overall. Among players his size, he just trailed Marcus Camby (+23.0), Dwight Howard (+23.1) and Amare Stoudemire (+23.4), and just ahead of Okafor (+21.7). He was also ahead of fellow East PFs Jermaine O'Neal and Al Jefferson (both at +21.0). So he'll get his minutes, and the Knicks will rotate Lee and Curry depending on the matchups and how they are playing. Keep in mind that Isiah has used David Lee at SF a bit in the past (Isiah is very fluid with his rotation, showing no qualms about playing people wherever - Marbury at SG, Richardson at SG or SF, Lee at SF or PF, and Balkman pretty much everywhere from SG to PF).
Bottom line: We won't know until about midseason if the Randolph/Curry tandem can work. There was much debate about whether Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony would be a disaster or unstoppable at the time of the AI trade last season. The end result was something in between, and it took a while to even figure it out. We still don't know how far the Nuggets can go with those two, if the sky's still the limit, or if there is a ceiling that they've hit already. So, too, will be the case with Randolph/Curry - we have to see how they work together, plus how the rest of the pieces (the perimeter guys, David Lee) fit in before we can access for sure that it will be a failure, or that certain players will be hurt by this, etc. That being said... none of the criticism to this point (Lee's minutes will be hurt, they are too similar, etc.) has struck me as valid. The only thing I worry about is the turnovers, and whether they can swing the ball around. I'm not worried about the rebounding, defense, or Lee losing time.
One thing we definitively do know at this junction is that, with Zach Randolph joining Eddy Curry and Jerome James, it is a good time to invest in stock of Sbarro Pizza. Oh, and the odds of Jerome James being cut just went up, especially with 17 players on the team, and only 15 spots. The Knicks did not take Wilson Chandler, and later trade to get Demetris Nichols (a great move, by the way - Nichols was a possible target at #23, so to get him in the second round, at #53, is outstanding value) so they would be cut. Nor is Isiah cutting anyone he's drafted, period. So it's likely he'll swing a trade before the season starts... likely to go includes the two recently acquired expiring contracts (Dan Dickau and Fred Jones), perhaps for a late round draft pick or two; Nate Robinson might be traded, too. If not, the possibility of Jerome James getting brought out increased tremendously.
If James is still on the bench next season, with Eddy Curry, Zach Randolph, and Randolph Morris all ahead of him on the depth chart, it seems very likely that he will be the first active NBA player since Quintin Dailey to actually order and eat a slice of pizza on the bench during a game.
Leave a comment
|
15 Comments
Comments
Good questions, Jack. Obviously we won't know the answer for sure until the season starts, but my take on it:
1) Barring injury, the Knicks will have three perimeter guys starting with Randolph/Curry: Marbury, Crawford, Q-Rich. All three can knock down jumpers (not necessarily threes, either). In fact, in Phoenix Q-Rich excelled at spot-up threes when he was open. If Randolph or Curry get doubled by Q-Rich's man, then the likeliest scenerio is an open three for Q-Rich. Marbury can spot up, too. Crawford doesn't excel at that - if he gets the ball via a pass from down low, he'll likely cut to the basket. Either he draws the defense with him, creating an opening for Randolph/Curry, or he gets through a hole, since the defense is still converged around Randolph/Curry. Or he draws the defense tighter to paint, then kicks it out to Marbury/Richardson, who are now wide open again. Lots of options. The key is ball movement, which is where the offense will live or die - either they move the ball quickly, and score at will, or the big men turn the ball over way too much. My bet is that it'll be a little more of the former, less of the latter.
I figure for a team to exploit the Knicks' turnover proneness, they have to have really quick defenders. I think only about 7-9 teams in the NBA can really take advantage of the Knicks that way; the Knicks will struggle against those teams.
2) The teams that will run the Knicks' off the floor won't be small teams. Very few teams went small against the Knicks last season to much success. The toughest teams for the Knicks were, and will continue to be, pick and roll teams. See Milwaukee with Mo Williams (Knick killer) and Bogut/Redd. Utah with Deron Williams and Boozer/Okur. Those are the teams that can properly take advantage of Curry and Randolph's slowness, especially on defensive switches come off picks/screens. Going small won't help a team, unless the have five good quick, spot-up shooters (no such team exists, though GS comes the closest).
Think of it in terms of your Bulls... how would going small help them? If Hinrich, Gordon and Deng aren't getting it done, who are they going to add to the floor that will help them beat the Knicks? The answer would be not going small (i.e, adding Duhon to the floor), but quick big men (perhaps Tyrus Thomas) who can get behind the Knicks' big men. That's about it.
Of course, if the matchups are getting exploited by the other team, Isiah has shown a knack for knowing how to switch up the team. If there's one thing I will compliment his coaching on, it's that he's been good at making in-game adjustments. There were like dozens of games where the Knicks got off to a bad start, or fell behind by double-figures, and Isiah tweaked his lineup (going big, going small, bring Lee and Balkman in, using Nate as a spark, etc.) to get the Knicks back into it.
3) I think the Knicks are a bit like Orlando in this way. Last season, both teams lacked a dominant offensive focus point. The Knicks tried making it Curry, but they would often get away from that for long stretches at a time, and in the end, their leading scorer could have been Marbury, Crawford, Curry, or someone else. Same thing in Orlando - Howard, Hill, Nelson, Turkelgu... no distinct offensive focus. So they add Rashard Lewis, and now have a clear #1 option.
That's what this deal does for the Knicks, too. No more "Curry for the first 6 minutes, Marbury for a while, then Crawford...". No more "Crawford at the end of a quarter as the go-to guy". I think after this trade, Randolph will be the Knicks' clear #1 option on offense. Even at the end of the quarter, too.
Anyway, that's my guess. Excellent questions - thank you for them. They really helped me flesh out the thought process a bit more!
Think of it in terms of your Bulls... how would going small help them? If Hinrich, Gordon and Deng aren't getting it done, who are they going to add to the floor that will help them beat the Knicks? The answer would be not going small (i.e, adding Duhon to the floor), but quick big men (perhaps Tyrus Thomas) who can get behind the Knicks' big men. That's about it.
That's kind of what I meant when I said 'small'. I could see the Bulls going Hinrich, Gordon, Sefolosha, Nocioni and Thomas at times to try to out-run the Knicks.
If your shooters can hit their shots, it's going to be a good year for New York. If they can't.....it's going to be a long year.
Also, something you can point out is that Randolph's good free throw shooting (nearly 82% last season) can help offset Curry's mediocre, at best, free throw shooting.
I just think it's going to be funny seeing Curry and Randolph bitch about not getting enough touches.
The most underappreciated benefit of the trade for Z-Bo?
The exponential increase in the Knicks collective gulliness. You think Melo comes at Collins with the big homey on the block?
My biggest fear?
That Larry Flynt's Hustler Club suddenly adds an all-you-can-eat buffet.
Just in case anyway didn't know, Brian, the owner and operator of BlogsbyFans HATES HATES HATES Eddy Curry. He also seems to have mild distain for the knicks. That's all. I have to go back to thinking about how much i hate Barry Bonds.
MM brings up a great point. But the nuggets also increased the G-Factor with AI. Despite his size, we all know AI could get busy and bring out his old pistol whipping side.
Can you say Nuggets Knicks rematch?!?!
Ha, Allen Iverson ain't gully like that anymore... he's a family man. You'll be surprised how turning 30 will mellow you out. I bet he's into poetry now, and probably sits at home complaining to his wife about how rap music sucks nowadays....
Isiah should hang a slice of pizza from the rim before every Knicks game to motivate Zach Randolph and Eddy Curry.
SML, great analysis. I myself was getting peeved at all of the Cuury and Randolph are clones. Also, good point about using Lee at the SF position. i suspect he might get 10 minutes a game there depending on whether he can guard the other teams SF. Also, Randlolp has a sweet little face up 15 footer that Curry doesn't so this offers another option.
I only have two concerns. Turnovers like you mentioned might be an issue. But you make a good point about Randolph being a cure to Curry getting triple teamed result of triple teamed. The other issue is shot blocking which neither do.
Having said that, i am still ecstatic with the trade for the very reason you mentioned which was that we barely gave up anything.
Now I actually like Channing Fye, but with a Curry offense, he was clearly in the wrong system. I think that he will do better in Portland. I am not sure what scheme that they will run but Frye's game is suited for a pick-an-roll offense.
In an unrelated note: you are 1 of 8 people I chose to "tag" just as I had been recently "tagged"
http://killbigotry.blogspot.com/2007/07/eight-inspirations-to-kill-bigotry.html
On an even separate note you might be interest in my latest offering as I have needed to scratch some sports itches: ESPN's RAP SHEET: "Pacman as Black Man"
http://killbigotry.blogspot.com/2007/07/espns-rap-sheet-pacman-as-black-man.html
SML, on an unrelated note. I have just been recently "Tagged" and now so have you! Keep the assignment the same or feel free to modify it to make it more interesting.
http://killbigotry.blogspot.com/2007/07/eight-inspirations-to-kill-bigotry.html
On an even separate note, I have been scatching my sports itch recently and here is yesterday's offering which may be of interest.
ESPN's RAP SHEET: "Pacman as Black Man"
http://killbigotry.blogspot.com/2007/07/espns-rap-sheet-pacman-as-black-man.html
Hey Charles,
Thanks for the feedback and love, man. Agree with what you said about the Knicks, especially onn Channing Frye - he'll do great in a pick and roll system. He might be best compared to a Keith van Horn with less range (i.e Frye is money from 10-15 feet, but too often last season he wandered into the 18-20 feet range, which he still has to work at).
And thanks for the "tagged" post. It's an interesting idea, I'll work on it over the weekend....
I think Keith Van Horn with more range is an excellent comparison. I was frustrated last year because Frye actually does have a post game but the Curry system negated it. I want the season to start already.
I think Keith Van Horn with more range is an excellent comparison. I was frustrated last year because Frye actually does have a post game but the Curry system negated it. I want the season to start already.
Question (and not a rhetorical one): when teams double down and Randolph/Curry kick it out, who makes the jumper? Q had the highest 3 pt % of regulars and that was about 38% (I don't count Lil' Nate). Jeffries, Balkman and Curry are the only one's left that had a FG% over 43%, and two of those guys don't shoot that much. Next Question: What happens when teams go small (and they will) and run Curry and Randolph off the floor? Will Isiah be smart enough to bring Lee off the bench quickly? Lastly: With two semi-dominant post players will the Knicks change up their offense for next season? Crawford and Marbury took the most shots/per game last season and they can't be doing that this season with the big guys you have down low.