- Seattle trades Ray Allen: The Sonics are totally doing both the right and wrong thing at the same time. Let's break the trade down: this was basically a 7-time All Star given away straight up for Jeff Green; the Sonics didn't even get a salary cap benefit, since they had to take Wally Szczerbiak back. Is Jeff Green in any way going to be better than Ray Allen next year, or even the season after that? Probably not, unless Ray Allen totally falls off the map. It's all about the future, and netting another young player to put alongside Kevin Durant. Seattle is in total, complete rebuild mode, and that means they aren't looking towards next year or even the year after that - they are focused on Oklahoma City and the 3-5 year range. Since Ray Allen won't be around then, they sent him away now for a talented young player with a bright future. Not a terrible decision, and one you have to agree with if you are thinking long term. But rebuilding with young players is always a risky proposal - you really don't know how Jeff Green will pan out, period.
That having been said, there is no way the Sonics, who finished in the lottery this past season, can be expected to do better next season; they just "traded" All-Stars Rashard Lewis and Ray Allen for two rookies - Kevin Durant and Jeff Green. You can pen the team in for another lottery finish next season, and another talented young player being added to their roster via the draft.
BTW, if they are going this route (and clearly they are), they might get rid of Luke Ridnour, too. They are stuck with Earl Watson, who is a decent point (no jumper), but who is probably untradeable. They could draft a replacement young PG in next year's PG-heavy draft, and give him the point guard job full time, then trade Ridnour. They might be holding on to him to raise his price (he's going to put up good numbers since someone has to help make up for the scoring loss, unless you think Durant and Green are going to average 50 ppg combined as rookies next season). Still, with the demand in the market for point guards as high as it is, it makes sense for Ridnour to get traded to a team needing an upgrade at point. My suggestion: to the Lakers in February (if not sooner) for their #1 pick (probably in the #10-20 range) in the 2008 draft. The Sonics then get another two young players next year to add to the nucleus of the future OKC Sonics.
- Boston adds Ray Allen: The flip side of the trade. It's a great move for Boston - as long as they have Paul Pierce they aren't in true "rebuild" mode like Seattle is. So adding an underrated veteran All-Star (one of the top 15 players in the league), one who can do so many things (hit threes, mid range game, above average rebounder and passer for his position) to another underrated, veteran All-Star who can do many things (same as Allen) is a tremendous one-two punch in the Atlantic Division. Boston is at least 10 games better now, minimum. Can you say that definitively if they were adding Jeff Green? Paul Pierce is running out of time, so the Celts should be thinkin about the next one or two years, especially in the Eastern Conference where there is still not a dominant team that has to be feared (unlike the Mavs and Spurs in the West).
Seriously, Pierce plus Allen, and Al Jefferson down low = around 38 wins. That will not be enough to make the playoffs, but is a huge improvement. Now, what can put them into the playoff (6th seed) range? Rondo. If he can step it up, maybe find a midrange jumper, the Celtics are serious. We see their offense running like this: down low to Jefferson, who either goes one on one on his man, or draws the double. If he draws the double, it won't be off the perimeter threats (Allen and Pierce), it'll be off either Perkins or whoever plays down low with him, or off Rondo. If Rondo can cut to the paint and get the pass from the Jefferson, he can force the defense in enough to open up Allen and Pierce. The Celtics are close, but they need to either upgrade over Perkins, or hope Rondo can develop his game.
- Jason Richardson to the Bobcats, and Rashard Lewis to the Magic. Okay, neither is really an All Star - they have zero appearance to show for their years of starring in the Western Conference. But now that they are in the East? Think one of them can't take Joe Johnson or Rip Hamilton's place? What about Caron Butler? Both players are capable of 25 ppg averages next season for their team.
The Magic lacked a scoring focus last season. Answer this question: who lead the team in scoring the most games last year? Grant Hill? Jameer Nelson? Dwight Howard? Turkoglu? The scariest thing about this team: They can overpay Lewis (at $15 million per year for 5 years), and still have lots of cap space. Next season they'll lose almost $12 million in contracts when Carlos Arroyo, Pat Garrity, and Keyon Dooling come off the cap. They will just have $33 million in contracts next season, counting $15 million for Lewis. That is alot of money for a team that free agents love to sign with, especially one that already has Lewis and Howard on board. The Magic, still our pick to be one of the most dominant teams in the East by the end of the decade.
Another team sitting there with two big pieces, and lots of cap space for the future? Charlotte. They have Jason Richardson and Okafor, plus Felton and several other role players that might be long term keepers - Walter Herrmann, Adam Morrison, Sean May.
- The Nets got better, too. They get Nenad Krstic back, a huge missing piece of their team last season. Add in Sean Williams, a blocking and rebound machine (think poor man's Ben Wallace, but with more offensive moves and less hair), and the Nets are the legit frontrunner to win the Atlantic. Their biggest competition?...
- The Raptors. Nice additions in Jason Kapano and Carlos Delfino. It's always a good strategy to take role players off some of the toughest teams in your conference (note to the Bulls: you don't want to do this by overpaying for that role player, i.e. Ben Wallace).
The Raptors look like a fun team next year: dead-eyed Kapano, inside monster Chris Bosh, big man with the distance Andrei Bargnini, Jorge Grabajosa, Delfino and Jose Calderon, plus TJ Ford. And about $7-10 million in cap space at the end of next season. - The Knicks added Zach Randolph. We're going to do a seperate post about this, but you might see him make the All Star team, too. His strongest competition is Jermaine O'Neal, who might be traded to the West. Randolph was 13th overall in double-doubles last season, and he's moving to the Eastern Conference where there are fewer big men. Look for him to be among the best PFs in the East next season, along with Sheed, Howard (technically a center), Bosh, and Jermaine O'Neal.
- Finally, speaking of Jermaine O'Neal... Kobe Bryant must be getting pissed. The Lakers have done nothing while Zach Randolph was practically given away. Same with Ray Allen (not a Kobe fan, though). And Jason Richardson. Here's the deal with the Lakers: They are going to sell out the arena for as long as Kobe is around. They don't need a championship team, just a mediocre team with the best player in the league. They'll sell tickets for the next two years, and go nowhere (they don't even have a point guard now, do they?).
Meanwhile, in two years Kobe can opt out. If he does, the Lakers now have Andrew Bynum and Jordan Farmer (with three years of experience, so hopefully decent by then), signed for a combined $5 million dollars, plus Radmanovic (the only other contract), for a total of $11 million committed. Guess how many of those premium free agents they can sign that off-season with that much to spend? Can you see the Lakers starting Bynum, Garnett, Shawn Marion, Gilbert Arenas, and Ron Artest? Or something along those lines? Maybe add in a cheap veteran or two - maybe a Kidd or Bibby at PG, to go with Garnett and Marion/Artest? Get the plan? So now do you understand why are they pissing off Kobe so much? Maybe because if he exercises that option in 2009, the Lakers think they can get busy....
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hi I came across your blog through Depressed fan. Very nice work, congratulations.
I still haven't figured out who this Mike Lupica is, anyway...
you made a very good analysis of the Eastern Conference with full coverage, but I need more time to write where I am disagreeing with you.. a couple of points here and there
later
Thanks for dropping by Ricky. Let me know when you have a post up - I'll like to read your take on the East.
I often go back and forth a bit with Depressed Fan - he's a 76er guy, I'm a Knicks guy - but it's all good. I actually like the 76ers' potential, but don't envision them a playoff team just yet. And that's fine - it's better to rebuild slowly and do it right than to do half-ass jobs (see the Knicks' past 7 years).
That being said, Thaddeus Young was, in my opinion, a terrible pick. We'll see if it works out, but, ugh. On the other hand, Jason Smith makes up for it - that's a good solid pick up. It'll be interesting to see how the Atlantic Division shapes up this season, with all the moves every team has made....
thanks for the welcome. I am a Sixers fan too but I like the Knicks too
BTW the only NBA game I saw live was a Knicks home loss to the GSW around 8-9 yrs ago... Muggsy Bogues (!!) scored a clutch up-and-under left handed scoop (!!!!) that made it to the #1 of the Top 10 Actions... imagine that
ok, BS aside here is my take on your (very good) analysis. I will write only about the points where I disagree
the Ray Allen trade makes sense only in Ainge's mind and with Ainge's purposes (save his job).
It will guarantee them a nice increase in the number of W so that he will remain at his desk, but you don't trade your #5 pick in a very deep draft and after you've tanked all the way to get a top pick. Simply idiotic.
It's basiclly the "quick fix" that a rebuilding franchise shouldn't do. Ainge pleased PP (who asked for a veteran) and f'd up the franchise future in the medium-long term even more
Here we come to point #2: you say "rebuilding with young players is always a risky proposal". True. But I've never seen a franchise rebuilding with veterans... Seattle did the right move period.
I like the Bobcats getting J Rich, they can become a 8th seed next year if they stay healthy
Finally I don't see any "plan" in the Lakers world, but that's just me I guess (LOL)
I'll add your site to my blog roll, I like it
later
Hey Ricky,
Thanks for input. Some good points you made.
I agree with ya that Danny Ainge's primary motivation in making the trade was saving his job. He and Doc Rivers (who he's keeping around because some of the media - see Bill Simmons - prefers to place the larger share of the blame for the Celtics' struggles on Doc Rivers, when the larger share of the struggles should go on Ainge first, not Doc) are on a short leash in Boston, with the fan and media pressure. Another year of rebuilding or a lottery finish would probably cost them their jobs.
If Ainge was in the same situation as Seattle, where they could trade their veterans and rebuilding from scratch, not caring if they finish in the lottery again next season, he probably would have trade Pierce. But he has no such luxury, so you are right; he's in pure job saving mode.
"I've never seen a franchise rebuild with veterans" - Detroit kinda did (see Rasheed Wallace, Billups, Hamilton, and Ben Wallace - all acquired via trade or free agency). It can be done, but it requires smart decisions. It's just as risky. But I agree with you that Seattle did the right thing. Lookily for the franchise they can afford to be patient and rebuild almost completely from scratch because of the situation they are in (GM with job security, no pressure from the fanbase since they are probably moving anyway, etc.)
Charlotte is a contender for the 8th seed now, I agree. It comes down to how well their point (likely Felton now) runs the offense - with options like Okafor, Richardson and Gerald Wallace, they could be a high energy offense.
The only plan I can possibly see in Lakerland is that they are going to ride Kobe out until 2009, but not add any salary, knowing they'll still sell tickets. Then, like they did with Shaq a few years back, they'll cut him loose, only they'll be able to rebuild around their young players (who are apparently untouchable, despite Kobe's public complaining) - Farmer, Bynum, whoever else - and add like two or three big free agents in 2009, thus re-energizing their fanbase (which is probably getting sick of the Kobe soap opera anyway). It's makes sense from a financial/business standpoint, even if it doesn't from a "win the championship" standpoint.
Thanks for stopping by Ricky, and I'll make sure to check out your site, too.
cool, now we can agree 100%.
Only thing where I would have to correct you is that Detroit took all those veterans (u r right) players when they were around 26-28 y/o, while Ray Allen is already 32 (and has a bum knee)
But the Boston picture is pretty clear for both of us (and it looks ugly, LOL)
Good points about the Lakers, I didn't think about the things from that point of view. U might be right
I've seen you have also a soccer section, nice, I'll go visit it.
I always thought soccer was too gay for american fans' tough asses :-)










I really like MJ and Bobcats getting Richardson, I think he's underrated. He's always been known as a slasher/ dunker, but he really showed he could shoot it from outside last year. I know they alraedy resigned Matt Carrol, if they get Wallace back too they could be ok.
I like Rashard goign to the Magic alot too. He gives them that go to perimeter scorer to go along with Howard- they could be scary for the next couple years.