What up, ya'll? Time for a quick edition of "NYC Media Dumb, SML Smart". About a little more than two weeks ago, I had a post on whether or not the Yankees could salvage their season. Basically, the local press had made a big production out of a 12-game stretch against 4 legit contenders (the Mets, Red Sox, White Sox, and Angels), calling it the "make or break" portion of the Yankees schedule.
The stretch neither made nor broke the Yankees season; they struggled, and went 4-8 over that stretch. Then we made our post, stating that the next stretch of games was crucial, because it would allow the Yankees a chance to get back to .500, the first step neccesary to getting back into the playoff hunt. So what happened?
"If they win four of those six games against the NL, then they will be at 31-33;
win 5 of 6 here (or pick up a game somewhere else earlier in the stretch,
perhaps by sweeping the Jays or winning 5 of the 7 against the Soxes), and the
Yankees are at 32-32 heading into the mid-June stretch.
We'll re-eavulate
the Yankees at that point, after this stretch is completely, but if the Yankees
aren't at least 31-33 or better come June 15 then we'll agree it might be time
to bury them."
Yes, I am now quoting myself. Or we are quoting ourselves, since we used the second person a lot. Guess where the Yankees are now: having completed a sweep of the Pirates yesterday, they are now 30-31. If they win two out of three games at home against the Diamondbacks, they will be back at .500. And you know what that means:
"But if they are near .500, don't be surprised if they start creeping back into the playoff race - the second of June features a stretch of games against teams the Yankees do really well against or can beat - the Rockies, Giants, Orioles and A's. Then July is the easiest month on the Yankees schedule, including the post-All Star stretch that has 7 games against the Devil Rays, 4 against the Jays, 4 against the hapless Royals, and 3 against the Orioles. If the Yankees are hovering around .500, that's the point of the season we can envision them turning the corner and winning like 14 of 18 to get back into the wild card (or even divisional) chase. Keep an eye on this over the next two months...."
Alright, enough self-love. Here's the deal... the Yankees have shaved a 14.5 game lead for the Red Sox to 9.5 in two weeks; they have also cut the Tigers lead for the wildcard down to 5.5. The Tigers just took two out of three games against the Mets, but they aren't done yet: three of their next four series are against tough opponents - first place Milwaukee, warming up Philadelphia, and the contending Atlanta Braves. The Red Sox have an easier schedule, with the only challenges being away games at the Braves and Padres.
The Yankees next goal, if they can get to .500, is to make up some ground on the Tigers in the wild card race. This seems like a good time to do that.
For gambling purposes, we were disappointed two weeks ago, when, despite being 21-29, and 14.5 games behind the Sox, the odds for the Yankees winning the AL Pennant were only 6-1... we were expecting 10-1, which would have been worth placing some dollars on. 6-1 is okay, but even if the Yankees make the playoffs, 6-1 seems a fair line for the pennant. Today the line is still 6-1.
What has sparked the Yankees resurgence? For starters, their hitting has finally picked up. They have scored at least 5 runs in every game in June but one (a 6-4 loss to the White Sox); Bobby Abreu has been the key. He is on fire this month in the 3-hole, forcing people to pitch to A-Rod, who has been, well, playing like the MVP undoubtedly. Interesting quote yesterday, from A-Rod on Bobby Abreu:
"He must have seen 40 pitches today," A-Rod said of Abrue batting in front of him. "I've never seen that in my career."
Actually, Bobby Abreu saw 34 pitches in his five plat appearance.
Secondly, Joe Torre is managing again, and playing against the NL has him manufacturing runs for the first time in like 5 seasons. He has the Yankees bunting and stealing bases (as they did the other night versus Pittsburgh to get the 5th and deciding run across). His Yankees then stole 5 bases against Pittsburgh the next day in a 9-3 win. Stealing bases and bunting stopped happening about 5 years ago in the Bronx; it would be wise to bring it back. Remember, this is a team that couldn't beat the Red Sox in Games 4 and 5 in the 2004 Playoffs because they could get the winning run across despite various opportunities to put the game away.
The Yankees still have a long way to go - don't get too excited Yankee fans, don't start talking sh*t. But they are beating the bad teams when they need to, and if they keep doing that don't be surprised if they suddenly make those 6-1 odds get smaller instead of larger....
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