We won't sit here and make the significance of insignificant events seem much greater.  Yeah, that sentence is awkward.  So be it.  This whole post is, because it is predicated on events that may or may not occur.

The Warriors haven't finished the Mavs off yet, for example.  This is important.  The Suns haven't finished off the Lakers yet, either.  But let's assume, for the sake of this thought experiment, that both occur.  And let's also assume the Spurs and Rockets win.  

The Spurs play the Suns.  The Mav-slaying Warriors play the Rockets.  Can you say New NBA vs. The Old Guard?

Because the Spurs definitely represent the Old Guard... that's not even worth explaining.  And, as good as T-Mac is, you don't get any more Old Guard than Jeff Van Gundy and Yao Ming (the dominant center in the league).  In fact, Tracy McGrady is Old Guard, too.  A swingman who works in tandem with his big man, in a structured half court offense.

The Suns are the New NBA.  That, too, needs no explanation.  The Warriors have made the entire NBA stop and consider what it thought it understood.  That the Atlanta Hawks, who are seemingly building a team around 6'7 all-swingmen, are nuts.  That you must have a point guard, and a shooting guard, and a small center.  And a power forward, and a center.  The Warriors say "Nope, we don't need your ROLES".

But nice victories over a Mavs team that was possibly not as legit as most thought do not validate the Warriors.  Or the Suns, who have yet to beat the big team, or win the conference.  Validation, however, is surprisingly close by.

If both the Warriors and the Suns win their second round matchup against "traditional teams", the rest of the league will take notice.   First off, just take a second to ponder the mere notion of a Suns-Warriors showdown.  Flashback to a month ago, to a first quarter that hinted at what was to come... a 45-33 quarter.  Okay, now let's move on - if the Suns and Warriors pull this off, the league will follow.  Not everyone, but a lot more than now, where the Suns are still considered an anomaly (thanks in large part to the perception of Steve Nash as a MVP, and Amare and Marion as one of a kind players).

The Warriors, on the other hand, are not an anomaly.  They are not composed of rare and talented players.  In fact, they are composed of the crap that constitutes most of the league.   For example, Baron Davis was untradeable garbage as recently as December.  The running joke in the league is that he should be traded to the Knicks, so he could be with Marbury and Francis.  

Matt Barnes is a waiver wire pick up, a 10-day contract career.  Stephen Jackson has been traded and given up more times than we can count.  Biedrins and Pietrus?  EuroBarnes.

If they meet their end in battle against the Rockets, the league will continue operating as normal.  Greg Oden will be your number one.  The Hawks will still be a joke.  As will the Knicks, for trying to build a team around a seemingly endless army of combo guards.  Experimentation will conclude.  

But if the Warriors and Suns win, they will be the gateway drug.  Durant goes first.  The name of the game becomes speed, athleticism, do-it-alls who can dribble, bring it up, take it to the hole, shoot threes, and finish.  Positions no longer matter.  You starting five becomes your Best Starting Five.

And Robert Horry just put the Spurs one step closer to the 2nd round meeting with the Suns.  Despite being half asleep, we saw a one point lead for the Spurs with 33 seconds left.  And we knew exactly what was going to happen.  It's a freaking cliche.  Spurs draw up a play, knowing they'll get the ball back, worse case scenerio two down (assuming the Nuggets hit a three or something).  The play was run, and it was to you know who, from the corner.  I saw this coming from 1,500 miles away and one mile below.  You know what, Denver?  Get a clue.  You should have kept the ball out of Horry's hands.  Make Ginobili dagger you.  Or Parker.  

Denver wrote their obituary tonight.  And next week the fight for the future of the NBA will be fought in the Western Conference semis.   

 



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8 Comments

Comments

[May 1, 2007 10:06 AM]  |  link  |  reply
TheLastPoet said

Nice stuff.

Much of what you say here is a kind of extension of the discussion I had with Maxairington over at TSF regarding the decline of the post player in today's NBA. Ever since Nash won his first MVP, folks have been arguing that D'Antoni's run-n-gun system is going to take over the L. Of course, Nellieball is a predecessor of D'Antoni's run-n-gun, and folks used to say that if Nellie ever could win the big game (he never has, by the way), then the big man would go the way of the dinosaur.

As an aside, I meant to comment on a point you made re Nellie last week when he said that Nash was the best player he coached, and Dirk was second best. All Knicks fans should have been offended by that remark, see, because that's the reason Nellie's bloated ass was run out of New York after half a season back in 94-95, I think it was. Shid, Patrick Ewing should have been the best player Nellie ever coached, but Nellieball is hell for traditional pivot men. Because of this, I have mixed feelings about combo guards and athletic swingmen taking over the L.

I enjoy a balanced game of basketball. Not that everyone MUST have preassigned roles, hell, if your 2 guard is your best pivot man then that's cool, too. Set him up on the block and let him work. So long as the game has post play, ball movement that creates open looks around the perimeter, fast break opportunities, and defensive intensity, ie, the whole package, then I'm good.

The Pistons and Spurs play this way, of course, and if they had more compelling star players, I'd be a big fan of both (but, alas, they do not, and thus I am not...). The Mavs would gladly follow the Pistons/Spurs template, if only they had a reliable post game. The Rockets could play this way, too, and they do have two very compelling star players, but Van Gundy is a part of that micromanaging cast of coaches who oveeemphasize defense. Just like his mentor Pat Riley, Gundy's system wears on his players (another reason why the Heat looked so old and slow v. the Bulls), and without the competitive greatness of McGrady and Yao (or Ewing back inna day), it's unbearable to watch.

So I am NOT a fan of either school, old or new, in their EXTREMES.

I refuse to accept the argument that the game has "evolved" beyond the need for a back-to-the-basket type player. I want to see a big man on the court who is able and willing to play offense and defense in the post. I want the rules to reflect the importance of this position by eliminating touch fouls, flops, and that insipid circle beneath the basket, and by greatly reducing the number of block/charge calls.

Force the defender to defend, to jump and swat a shot, to crouch and go for a steal, or to simply try to stay in front of his man, not to just stand there arms extended and overreact to physical contact (I absolutely DESPISE that!). Slapping the shooter's arms and wrist, or bodying him excessively, is a defensive foul, but that's it. Forget zones. (And without zones, we won't need defensive 3 seconds either.) Shid, this the L, check ur man or suffer the consequences.

On the other side, force the man with the ball to be creative in scoring the ball, whether he's facing up or using the pivot. Using shoulders and elbows is an offensive foul, but that's it. Don't bail him out.

On the sideline, beyond traps and double teams on defense, and set plays for ball out and end of game situations on offense, tell these coaches to calm the fuck down. Again, this the L got-dammit, the coach aint the show. Players play. Coaches watch the clock, rally the troops, manage egos, and use their knowledge of the game to get easy looks for their best players.

Enuf.

But thanks for the the opportunity to rant!

Back to a question you asked in a previous comment re what to play when the Nets knock off the Raps. All those selections were solid. And if you talking pure sonic pleasure, you can't go wrong with early Wu-Tang. (One question: since Wu-Tang has been officially embraced by the hipsters, do real n-words have to let it go? What say you, SML?) If we must abandon the Wu, then how about ILL/Al Skratch (Come Around My Way), or Mobb Deep (Shook Ones). You want to go older? Check Nice & Smooth (Funky For You or the remix of their hit off the second album - can't think of the name right now...)

TheLastPoet is Audi
(Audi like who?)
Muhfuckin Kurt Gowdy

[May 1, 2007 10:12 AM]  |  link  |  reply
TheLastPoet said

Shid, I forgot about Pete Rock and CL Smooth (T.R.O.Y.), or, if you're talking instrumentals, anything from DJ Premier.
And Mase from DeLaSoul wasn't/isn't a bad producer...

I'm Casper

[May 1, 2007 11:01 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Erin said

I watch a lot of NBA, but I can't pretend to be the sort who sits and analyzes. But I will say this--I enjoy watching the Spurs play as much as I enjoy watching any other team in the NBA. I don't want to see everyone playing like the Suns, and I don't want to see everyone playing like the Spurs. So if the "new" NBA means that everything will be run and gun, I will be just as bored as people claim to be when they watch fundamental basketball being played by the Spurs. The Spurs are an exciting team, just as much as the Suns or Warriors, as far as I'm concerned.

[May 1, 2007 11:02 AM]  |  link  |  reply
stopmikelupica said

Great feedback, Poet, lots to discuss there.

You're right about Nellie not mentioning Ewing as the best player he coached - you can pretty much attribute that to the fact that Nelson was run out of town in less than a season, and that Ewing was the reason he got tossed. No way Don even acknowledges the greatness that is Ewing. Even if there wasn't that beef, you are absolutely right when you say that Nelson doesn't appreciate big men in general.

Ever since Nash won his first MVP, folks have been arguing that D'Antoni's run-n-gun system is going to take over the L.

The larger point of this post is that we agree that it hasn't happened (yet). The reason, I believe, is because no one really thinks that the SYSTEM itself is all that's needed to win like the Suns... they recognize that Nash, Amare, and Marion are superior talents. But the Warriors could make them rethink that, in a way that the Suns haven't. Especially if the Warriors get past the Rockets.

The Rockets could play this way, too, and they do have two very compelling star players, but Van Gundy is a part of that micromanaging cast of coaches who oveeemphasize defense. Just like his mentor Pat Riley, Gundy's system wears on his players (another reason why the Heat looked so old and slow v. the Bulls), and without the competitive greatness of McGrady and Yao (or Ewing back inna day), it's unbearable to watch.

Damn this is totally on point. The Rockets are my team to win the West (or at least give the Spurs the biggest run); the Yao/McGrady duo is so smooth, even in the context of being coached by Van Gundy, or playing a tough fundamental team like the Jazz. Shoals said today: "You got elegance and feeling and all that, but rising out of a muck of leaping, grabbing, Euros and half-breeds. My favorite shit was in the fourth, when caught the ball in the post, threw his weight around some, and then lightly extended his arm to drop the ball in for the two points he so deserved"

The Rockets are pleasing to watch, because they are well balanced. They got the post man (the best center in the game), arguably the top swingman not named Kobe in the league - Tracy McGrady. He's evolved, too... he's not "50 points on Dirk" McGrady anymore, he's "26 points and 16 assists" Tracy. And the three point shooters (Head, Alston, Battier) are like a bunch of mini-Horrys waiting for their chance. One of them (my money is on Battier) will get their Horry on before this first round series is over.

Yes, I kinda hate Horry because he is sorta one-dimensional player, but one-dimensional players are what good teams need as role players.

Bares repeating: "Just like his mentor Pat Riley, Gundy's system wears on his players (another reason why the Heat looked so old and slow v. the Bulls)"

Very true, Poet. I hadn't even made the connection, but this is one more reason why the Heat looked like crap against the Bulls. They really ran out of gas. The Bulls may have dominated, but the Pistons aren't going to run out of gas like that. If anything, it seems the Pistons have been holding back all season long, waiting for this moment. I'm starting to believe that the Pistons might just lay an ass-whupping to the Bulls. We'll see. If nothing else, that comment alone will get me in trouble!

I refuse to accept the argument that the game has "evolved" beyond the need for a back-to-the-basket type player. I want to see a big man on the court who is able and willing to play offense and defense in the post.

I won't make that argument, nor do I believe that either. My argument is that if the Warriors and Suns pull off 2nd round victories against traditional teams built on that "back to the basket type player" (Duncan, Ming), the league will start experimenting more with the untraditional. Especially since there is a lack of that big post presence overall in the league - you got Yao, Boozer, Duncan, Bosh, Curry (very raw still), and what else? Dwight Howard doesn't have any post moves yet - he's in his uber-Camby stage now. There are playoff teams - the Nets, the healthy Wizards, the Bulls, the Warriors, the Mavs, the Lakers - built entirely without a significant post presence. The Nuggets are so-so in this regard - Nene sometimes appears to be a post presence, like he was early in the yesterday's game.

Given this lack of post players, more and more teams are going to try to build their teams around athletic do-it-all swingmen (of which are a dime a dozen - remember, no one on the Warriors was even valued much, as recently a month ago - even J-Rich was predicted as being dumped in an offseason trade). If the Warriors and Suns can prove, once and for all, that you can win this way.

I agree with most of your suggestions about how to improve the flow of the game, notably the need to do something about the charging fouls (seriously, they call too many offensive fouls in the league, they need to let the play go on sometimes), and the need for coaches to stop calling every play. That's the beauty of the Warriors/Suns, isn't it? They don't spend 10 seconds bringing the ball up, looking over at the coach, and then another 10 seconds setting up the play - they play, and by playing force you to pay attention to what is happening. Basketball is the flow sport - it isn't baseball or football, with the need to call a pitch or a play, and the anticipation build up - basketball is suppose to be about the flow, not the buildup. The shot taking, the crowd oooohing and ahhhhing, the quick response to getting embarrassed on side of the ball, the fast break, the quick feed to a cutting man.

On to the music: Hipster or not, early Wu is iconclastic. The Rza is a top-5 rap producer (the rest of the list? Hmm... Erick Sermon, Primo, Marly Marl for the old skool, and the collective known as Dr. Dre). I was trying to stick with a Brooklyn motif. But you know what - Shook Ones definitely needs to be played.

[May 1, 2007 11:18 AM]  |  link  |  reply
stopmikelupica said

Erin,
Hey, your feedback is always welcomed here! I think you pretty much summed up my feelings on the subject, too.

What makes the Warriors run exciting right now is not just that they are the underdogs, but that you can't help but watched them and enjoy them. Because they are unique, and like nothing we've seen in a long time. If they became the norm, then yes, they would no longer be exciting to watch.

DJM came by my office and told me that he is excited by the Warriors, and more than anything was impressed by their defense in the 4th quarter in Game 4. That's what kinda separates the Warriors from the Suns - that defensive intensity, not in the form of guarding your man, but in the form of stealing the ball, breaking up entry passes, blocking shots and layups - as Richardson, Pietrus, and Baron (called for a foul, though) - have all done at critical moments. A small team getting to loose balls and rebounds.

The Suns might run, but they are still a traditional team. The have real 6'10 guys on their team, and guys that can post.

I like the idea of an NBA where every team has it's own identity, and not everyone is trying to be the new Spurs or the new Suns....

[May 1, 2007 11:33 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Erin said

Yeah, I like the Suns, despite the fact that I'm a Spurs fan. I guess I'm just a sucker for a team that actually plays like a team. And I am on the Warriors' bandwagon right now, if only because I hate the Mavs (and, okay, the Warriors are fun to watch).

Every team having its own identity is exactly what the league needs, without having to say "the run and gun style is better than the pure defensive," or vice versa.

[May 1, 2007 4:57 PM]  |  link  |  reply
TheLastPoet said

My bad. I must've been having one of my "all boroughs" moments because the idea that you wanted BK-only rappers just flew straight over my head. Makes sense, though. Ok, so here's a name for you, then: you can't have a BK party without the legend himself, Big Daddy Kane. I'd go with Smooth Operator, or Aint No Half Steppin.

Back to hoops, I was definitely having a "big picture" moment when I ran down my list of NBA grievances. In doing so, I didn't mean to disavow your assertion that the NBA is a copy-cat league, and that the success of the Suns and Warriors will beget imitation. Certainly true. And Erin is right, it is also lamentable, because the L fares better when each team, or at most a collection of teams, has its/their own identity.

One thing: I'm not sure if you mean to imply that Nash, Marion, and Stoudemire are in fact unique players that no one else can duplicate, or that they are merely perceived this way. I, for one, think perception has clouded reality in this case. That is to say, many PGs could do what Nash is able to do for the Suns. It tickles me every time a Suns fan says that Nash is the only cat in the L who can pass the ball with one hand off the dribble while moving at 16 miles per hour 49 feet from the rim. That's right, homer, Nash is the only cat who can pass, meanwhile all the rest of the PGs made it to the highest level of ball in the world doing...what, exactly? Same for Marion and Stoudemire, athletic swingmen the likes of whom we see on every team. I'll admit, Stoudemire is a little rarer because he's 6-10 and athletic, but he is far from a traditional pivot man, and thus much closer to the new age baller we see so much of today.

So, if your point is that once teams recognize that they can organize the PG, SF, and PF they already have on their roster into the dynamic run-n-gun trio that is the Suns, or their seemingly expendable PG, SG, and SF into the fearless bunch that is now the Warriors, then I agree. Most NBA teams already have the players they need to play such a style, only thing lacking is the right coach to implement the system.

I just hope they don't do it.

Anyway, I don't think the Warriors will beat either the Rockets or the Jazz. I don't think they can sustain such a frenzied, emotionally charged level of play all the way to June. But even if they can, Yao and the Rockets, as well as Boozer and the Jazz, will be able to do what the Mavs cannot: they can put the fear of Jesus into the Warriors by constantly pounding them and thus slowing them down, and they WILL establish 8-foot Yao or mile-wide Boozer down on the block. Then its game over.

But that is a discussion for next week!

[May 1, 2007 5:17 PM]  |  link  |  reply
stopmikelupica said

One thing: I'm not sure if you mean to imply that Nash, Marion, and Stoudemire are in fact unique players that no one else can duplicate, or that they are merely perceived this way. I, for one, think perception has clouded reality in this case. That is to say, many PGs could do what Nash is able to do for the Suns.

Pure perception. I agree with you on the "many PGs could do what Nash is able to do...". I've stated as much - I said Kidd is better than the 2-time MVP. In fact, I'll take it a step further - Kidd on this Phoenix team wouldn't be the same team... they wouldn't run as much, for example (but enough - just look at how much the Nets have run against a much younger team this week) but they would be a far better defensive and rebounding team (Kidd, Bell, Marion, Stoudemire - that's a tough defensive and rebounding team). A team that may not win 65 games, but would be a much tougher out in the playoffs. If you want proof of that, remember that Kidd has made it to the Finals twice already with a decent, but not great cast of teammates (not as good as Nash's).

I've also said that Andre Miller (Miller!), of all people, is my pick for the "most-Nash like numbers if he was in Phoenix". Meaning he would average 18 ppg with 12 apg in that offense.

And, yes, the ride ends soon for the Warriors. The Rockets will impose their will on them - Jeff van Gundy is no joke on making adjustments, and unless Nellie can muster up some serious hate for Jeff, it's going to be a letdown for the Warriors. But that discussion will come soon....




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