How to salvage the Yankees season:
Despite the reports from the media ("12.5 game behind!"), the Yankees season is not over, not yet. It's way too early to write them off. But the next three weeks will be crucial if they are to salvage the season and make a run at making the playoffs.
The first thing they need to do is get back up to .500. Currently they are six games under, with a 21-27 record. Once they are at .500, they will be back in the wild card hunt - right now there is the Detroit Tigers at 29-20 (7.5 games ahead of the Yankees), and nobody else too far from .500. Get back to .500, then target catching the Tigers.
The local newspapers have been harping on the importance of the 12-game stretch that the Yankees just finished, a stretch featuring 3-game series at the White Sox and Mets, followed by a six game homestand against the Red Sox and Angels. The fact is that all four are legit championship contenders (including the winners of three of the last four WS); expecting the Yankees to start a winning streak against those quality teams is pretty absurd, especially given the state of their pitching staff, and their recent hitting slump.
The next three weeks, however, features a stretch that includes the types of teams that the Yankees have to beat if they want to make the playoffs, period. It starts tonight with a three game homestand against the Blue Jays, a division rival that is currently a half game ahead of the Yankees in the standings. The series is there for the taking for the Yankees.
The Jays send Dustin McGowan, against the Matt DeSalvo of the Yankees. Dustin's current ERA of 7.17 is even higher than the Yankee rookie's 5.29 ERA. That's followed by Andy Pettite tomorrow night against Shawn Marcum, and the series finale is another Yankee rookie (Tyler Clippard) pitching against another Jays scrub, Jesse Litsch. The Yankees manage to avoid any good pitchers, which they have to hope will mean their slumping hitting can start getting it together.
Then comes an offday on Thursday, followed by a big three game series at the Red Sox. That series features the likely return of Roger Clemens in the Sunday night finale. They immediately play a four game series in Chicago against the White Sox. The Yankees have to take at least 4 of those 7 games.
They then come home to the stadium for a three game set against the Pirates, one of the worst teams in baseball. Arizona comes next, a good team with a solid record, but one the Yankees can beat. If they win four of those six games against the NL, then they will be at 31-33; win 5 of 6 here (or pick up a game somewhere else earlier in the stretch, perhaps by sweeping the Jays or winning 5 of the 7 against the Soxes), and the Yankees are at 32-32 heading into the mid-June stretch.
We'll re-eavulate the Yankees at that point, after this stretch is completely, but if the Yankees aren't at least 31-33 or better come June 15 then we'll agree it might be time to bury them.
But if they are near .500, don't be surprised if they start creeping back into the playoff race - the second of June features a stretch of games against teams the Yankees do really well against or can beat - the Rockies, Giants, Orioles and A's. Then July is the easiest month on the Yankees schedule, including the post-All Star stretch that has 7 games against the Devil Rays, 4 against the Jays, 4 against the hapless Royals, and 3 against the Orioles. If the Yankees are hovering around .500, that's the point of the season we can envision them turning the corner and winning like 14 of 18 to get back into the wild card (or even divisional) chase. Keep an eye on this over the next two months....
Obviously, you may have noticed that we haven't spent too much time explain how the Yankees can win the games that are "winnable". In brief, here's the deal - the Yankees starting pitching has started to come together. Pettite and Wang have done well, Mussina is improving. And Clemens soon, and the Yankees have four pitchers that can keep them in games. The bullpen has been heavily taxed to this point, but having the starters, even if they don't go deep into the game, just make it to the sixth inning every start (something all four of them can do) will help the workload. The thing that has been killing the Yankees so far in May has been their hitting.
You'll note that they lost 4-3 to the Angels yesterday; prior to that was a 3-1 lose on Saturday; there was also a 3-2 lost to the Mets the week before; 4-1 and 5-3 losses to the White Sox; a 2-1 lose to Horacio Ramirez of the Mariners, and a 3-0 loss to Washburn and the Mariners. As far back as May 7th, a 3-2 loss to those same Mariners, the Yankees were losing close games because of: a) overworked bullpen that couldn't hold the game close, and b) an offense that hasn't been getting it done.
Yesterday, Derek Jeter failed to tie the game up with 2 outs in the 9th and Jorge Posada on third. Right now he's the best hitter (other than Posada) on the team. Bobby Abreu has been struggling, as he is batting .233. Still, the batting eye is there - note he has 24 BBs, and a .320 OBP. The problem is the power - he's slugging .296, and has only 8 extra-base hits on the year. Johnny Damon is struggling with minor injuries, and is only batting .272 with 26 runs scored. Matsui, the unsong heart of the Yankees' lineup for a while, has only 23 rbis, on pace for a terrible 70 RBI season. He needs to get untracked more than anyone else on the Yankees. Jason Giambi is the only Yankees besides A-Rod that you can expect at least 30 homers from; he's currently on pace for 20.
Still, it's hard to believe that Giambi, Matsui, Damon, Abreu, and Cano will continue to underperform like they have. Once they get it together, and join Jeter and Posada (and the pretty consistant, if slightly cooler than he was in April A-Rod), the Yankees will start scoring the runs needed to win those close games.
And if not, don't be surprised to see them make a move for Mark Texiera, a slugging 1B believed to be on the market who would fit the Yankees' needs pretty well.
Leave a comment
|
I'd like to see Texiera in a Yankee uniform, but I don't want to see it if it means what I think it means, 3 or 4 prospects to the Rangers.
If the Yanks go out and get him, they're going to be sacrificing the future for this year, again. It's going to be hard to avoid w/ pressure from the top down, but if this franchise is going to turn the corner, they need to bite the bullet and go with what they've got.