Let's start off our recap of the NL Central with the early surprise story of the season: Who has the best record in the league? The Brewers, of course.
The are currently 18-9, having won 9 of their last 11 games, including a three game sweep of the Cards yesterday. They are sitting on a 5 game lead over the Reds. How did they get to where they are now?
The Brewers started the season 7-6, pretty much what you would have expected. Since then they are 11-3. The started by beating up the perennial last place Pirates in a two game sweep. The Astros then stopped by, and lost two of three to the Brewers, all very close games (the two wins featured solid pitching lines from starters Dave Bush and Chris Capuano). Next up was a trip to Wrigley, where the Brewers took 2 of 3 from division rivals the Cubs, behind strong pitching performances from Carlos Villanueva and Jeff Suppan. Then it was time to play the Astros again, but this time in Houston. The Brew Crew took two out of three again, this time behind Chris Capuano and Claudio Vargas (both of whom held the Astros to one-run games). Suppan kept the one-run trend going, beating the Cards in the first game of their three game set on April 30. Ben Sheets won 12-2, as the Brewers shelled Brandon Looper on May 1st. Villanueva pitched a shutout yesterday, as Milwaukee won 4-0 to complete the sweep against the Cards.
The key here, in case you haven't figured it out, is the pitching. During their 11 of 14 streak, the Brewers have won 4 games in which they scored only 4 runs; 1 game in which they scored only 3 runs. In their 11 victories, they have given up only 25 runs!
The Brewers offense is okay - Prince Fielder (our 1B in two fantasy leagues) is hitting .275 with 6 HRs and 18 RBIs. That's not bad, but it's hardly cleanup hitter domination. For example, SS J.J. Hardy is hitting .306 with 6 HRs and 19 RBIs, and no one sees him as a slugger in the Fielder mold. Then there is 2B Richie Weeks, who seems to be doing well with 5 HRs, 21 Runs and 5 SBs, but is only batting .238. His good walk totals (12 BB) bring his OBP to a decent .333, but clearly he is not hitting at his capacity.
Nope, this is about the pitching. Let's start with the starters... free agent acquisition (and noted stem cell research opposer) Jeff Suppan is 4-2 with a 2.55 ERA. Ask Boston or St. Louis fans if they are surprised to see that. He certainly had the potential to be an ace, but he seems to have gotten together under pitching coach Mike Maddux, who has to be the best pitching coach in the league now (with Leo Mazzone not doing much with the Orioles' staff). Ace Ben Sheets is struggling a bit (2-2, 4.25 ERA), but the rest of the staff has picked it up: Capuano (another one of my fantasy faves) is 4-0 with a 2.90 ERA. He might have been 5-0 had it not been for a calf injury during yesterday's start that knocked him out of the game after only 3 IP. According to the AP, he has a "contusion" and is "day-to-day". Villanueva and Vargas have done a decent job, combining for 4-0 record and 3.46 ERA in 39 IP this season.
The bullpen has done well. Former closer Derrick Turnbow seems to have grown comfortable in his new role - he has a 2.19 ERA in 12 IP, including 21 K's... pretty impressive totals for a pitcher who is definitely not a typical overpowering flamethrowing type. Mike Wise has done well, too, with a 2.92 ERA in his 12 IP. But the key has been closer Francisco Cordero, who is 10 for 10 in save opportunities, and has yet to give up a run in 11 plus innings pitched.
Big question time: Can they keep this up? Well, we personally thought they would improve, but they have exceed our expectations by a lot. Since they are doing it on the basis of their pitching, not their hitting (which can still go up quite a bit, especially if Fielder has a Ryan Howard-like breakout this season), it comes down to Mike Maddux. He's proven he can mine trash bin material (Doug Davis, Derrick Turnbow) and turn them into productive pitchers. This year he is working with some very good young pitchers - Suppan, Sheets, Capuano, Vargas - so we think he can keep it going. As long as the team can stay healthy, we see them being around .500 for the rest of the season. We don't see them maintaining this .667 winning% pace; they have yet to face off against the West coast teams (with some great pitching of their own) or the East coast teams (NYM, Atlanta, Philly), with their mashers. In fact, they have only played two series outside of their division: The Marlins (won 2 of 3) and the Dodgers (also won 2 of 3). It is too early to say that they are for real, not until we let the Braves, Mets, Diamondbacks, etc. at them. But they are definitely good enough to predict at least a .500 record the rest of the way, and they will be in control of the division for a little while. At least until the Reds or Cards get hot.
As for the rest of the division? Well, we'll go into detail next week on why the Cards will be around for a while, and on why we think the Reds are going to be the hot team of the next month or so.
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