Well, we went six for eight on our first round predictions, which is as good or better than most "experts"; our only screwups were the Rockets (who lost the closest series of the first round) and the Heat (um, they really surprised us by how much they sucked). So, projecting a 75% success rate to the 2nd round means we'll get one of the four series wrong - we're betting it'll be this one.
The matchups are pretty simple: the Nets have by far a superior backcourt, and the Cavs have the superior frontline. The Nets have a slightly better bench, at least in Marcus Williams and Nachbar. The question is which team's superior advantage is likelier to get imposed? Well, I don't see Gooden and Ilgaukas (the Cavs' superior frontcourt) being dominate... solid, big even, but not dominate. The Nets? How can you not see Kidd dominating, and Vince Carter having a big game or two as he always does.
Let's break it down further. A playoff series almost always comes down to "who are the best players in this series" and 'how will they do". The Nets can count on Kidd. He is playing with a sense of urgency that we have told you about since the season ended - this is one of the last chances he has to will a team (in which he is the unquestionable leader, not a second banana like he will be in LA or wherever) to win series and prove that he is the superior point of this generation. And he is. He has a good a chance (if not better) of taking his team out of this round as Steve Nash does. So Kidd will be there this series, count on triple-double like numbers again (maybe a few less rebounds if Gooden and Ilgaukas clean up the boards).
The other two players that can and will significantly impact the series - LeBron and Vince. LeBron has been on cruise control for a long time now. Even in the first round series against a Wizard team that lost 17 of 21 since two of their top three players, the Cavs seemed lethargic. Games three and four were quite winnable for the Wizards, who for some reason stopped getting the ball to Jamison in the fourth quarter in both of those games. That despite the fact that he was the only solid source of offense for the team. We are pretty sure they would have stolen a game or two had they kept Jamison going, though it wouldn't have made a difference in the long run (since the Cavs were not losing that series, either).
If LeBron is not all business today, the Nets will steal a game and home court advantage from right under the Cavs' noses.
Finally, there is Vince Carter. As good as LeBron is, if Vince has one of his big games, combined with Kidd and the contributions of Jefferson and Nachbar, there is no way the Cavs can overcome that. Now, counting on Carter to have a big series is a waste of time... that's not his style. What he will do is show up for a few games (probably games three and four in the Meadowlands, like he did against the Raptors, and maybe game one today) of total domination. I'm talking 40 point type games... he would have had two against the Raptors (like we predicted) in Games 3 and 4 had the games not been blowouts. The Cavs won't get blown out, so he may, in fact, actually hit the 40 point mark twice in this series.
And that's why we are going with the Nets in 6.
Note on the cool Vince Carter/LeBron sketches: They are from a great website called Eneone, which features artwork/sketches. These are sketches that were used for a Nike Basketball Hooptown (full post here), an animated short. Hoopsvibe has the shorts; Part 2 features LeBron James beating up on a kid until the kid gets big on him: check it out here. Part one features Vince Carter the hero. Yo Vince, the time is now.
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