The four NBA Playoff series are all 3-1 now, and we wanted to explore if any of the losing teams have a chance... wait, what? The Spurs-Suns are 2-2? Cool, let's check that series out:
This has been an annoying series to watch. First off, it's hard to root for any of the teams involved, considering the amount of dirty and whiny players involved - let's list them out: Duncan (whiny), Ginobili (flopper), Bowen (dirty), Raja Bell (dirty) the Suns in general (whiny)... you get the idea.
Furthermore, the officiating has been terrible, helping make it both more dirty and whiny than it should be. In Game 3, a few key 50/50 calls went the Spurs' way; the fans and press complained, and not surprisingly, several 50/50 calls in Game 4 all went the Suns' way. Cue the comeback, and a tied series. Whatever the case, here's one call that won't go the Suns' way - Amare and Diaw are both going to get suspended.
I appreciate all the arguments against suspending Amare and Diaw: "Amare was just getting ready to check in" (sure, with 14 seconds left in a blowout?); Nash and his weird argument that cheering subs technically leave the bench area when celebrating big plays (um, Steve? The rule about leaving the bench area pertains to "altercations", not "celebrations"... dig the diff?); and my favorite, that "it would suck for a critical series to be determined by a silly play"... yeah, because the NBA has never let that happen before.
Like it or not (and I admit, I hate this rule, but I don't see why it will, or should, be changed at this point in time - if anything, change it after the season is over) Amare will get suspended for at least a game, and Diaw, too.
The Suns won because Amare got two easy baskets by going right at Tim Duncan, who had 5 fouls and couldn't do much to stop him. Such is life. Tim won't get into foul trouble again in this series, and he will be there to stop Amare (if Amare is even around, that is) in a close game. Period.
Game 5 might be in Phoenix, but we see the Spurs pulling it off, and regaining home court advantage in time to beat the Suns at home for Game 6.
Like we said over at Posting and Toasting, the Suns are just a little more irritating than the Spurs. Whether it's the rewarding of whininess in Game 4, or the fact that they can't ever adapt their no-defense run-n-gun style to beat teams like the Spurs (adaptation is what makes championship teams), we just can't support them.
Contrast them to the Jazz, on the other hand. Playing two series so far against totally different styles of teams, the Jazz have surprisingly been adaptive. Against the Rockets and the Van Gundy slowdown, halfcourt style, the Jazz played their game, and, after losing the first two games, rose up and won 4 of 5 against that style. They averaged only 90.4 ppg for the series, and broke 100 points only once, in Game 7.
Now, against the run-n-gun, fast breaking Warriors, the Jazz have shown that they can run, too. They have averaged 112.3 ppg (taking out the OT session), a +22 difference over the Rockets series. Okur has been gunning (from the 3-pt arc) while AK47 has been doing a little running; but more importantly, they have continued to pound the rock into Boozer, who might be the best inside post player left in the players other than Duncan. As fun as a Warriors-Spurs series would be, and we are still kinda hoping for it, a Jazz-Spurs series might not be so bad. We like the idea of Boozer and Duncan battling, as well as Parker and Deron Williams, and AK47 and Okur and Ginobili adding the Euroflavor. Actually, we are tired of the Euroflavor, and we'll get to that in a future post...
So, back to the point of this post: Who has a change to come back from their deficits?
We don't see the Suns coming back from a 3-2 deficit to the Spurs; if Amare gets suspended, the Suns have better find a way to take Game 5 at home, or this series is over. And, in our opinion... we still think the Spurs have this series, unless the officials get involved again.
The Bulls have the hardest task of any team - trying to win three straight against a focused Detroit team (the Game 4 loss being their only loss so far in the playoffs), including having to win two of the three in Detroit? Not going to happen, in my opinion. Next.
The Nets against the Cavs. We still believe in the Nets, because Kidd is still the best player in this series. But Larry Hughes has been doing a great job in holding him down, and the bottom line is that unless Vince Carter finally steps up with a big 40 point game in Game 5, the Nets are in trouble. We see the Nets pulling off Game 5, though, and Game 6 in NJ, forcing a Game 7 showdown in Cleveland. Bottom line is the Cavs have to want to close out this series, and thus far their entire MO throughout the playoffs has been "let's keep it close, and wait for the other team to make the mistakes". And the other teams have!
The Wizards screwed up two winnable games in DC, and the Nets screwed up a winnable game yesterday (thanks to a horrible fourth quarter) culminating in Vince's big turnover. Can you honestly point to a game in which the Cavs rose up? Maybe Game 1 with Sasha big block, but really Game 2, in which LBJ had a few big moments down the stretch. Otherwise, it's been about other teams blowing it more than it has been about the Cavs execution.
As for the Warriors-Jazz: the Jazz have proven they can roll and adapt. The Warriors are a team fueled by emotion and swag; for them to win Game 5 (and get back home for Game 6) they are going to have to come out once again, like they did in Dallas, and exert their will. They need Jason Richardson to play big, hit the huge threes, then have Baron and Barnes step up. SJax is getting beat by a better defender - AK47 is no joke. Therefore the Warriors are going to need big shots, and big plays, to come from the other players - that's where Richardson becomes the key.
We think Game 5 is winnable for the Warriors, but we wouldn't bet on it. But we won't discount the Warriors making a comeback in this series, either, until we see their rotting corpse....
Update: Here is What If Sport's breakdown of the 4th quarter calls in the Spurs-Suns game, a complimentary response it seems to this True Hoops post.
Leave a comment
|
4 Comments
Comments
Poet, whatup?
Yeah, I know what you mean by "letter of the law" up in Harlem - my favorite example is that when I lived in East Harlem (116th) for three years, my friend, every day while walking his dog, got stopped by the cops checking that the dog had a collar and tags. Every day. Usually even the same cops. Any excuse, however minor, to harass the black folk in the neighborhood....
On to the rule: Agree that the rule needs changing. It needed changing 10 years ago during the Knicks-Heat brawl, and it still needs changing. My point was that Stern and the NBA haven't felt the need to change it, and to this point they haven't ever felt inclined to give "exceptions" to it, so I wouldn't bet on one this time, either. I think your idea of changing the rule to include "and join in the fracas" is perfectly on point, and it is what the NBA should do. They should have fixed it 10 years ago, and now maybe with the heat they are going to take if they do suspend Amare, they will finally get around to fixing that....
Now, on to the "Spurs brand of thuggery"... whoa. When did the Spurs become thugs?!? I agree that Bowen is dirty - it's not just the kicking Amare in the foot type of things, or the sliding underneath players while they shoot a jumper type of thing, it's even the grab Nash's wrist after a pass, as What If Sports mentioned in their post.
But the rest of the Spurs - Duncan is generally considered whiny, not dirty. Ginobili is a flopper, like Reggie Miller used to be, but not really a "hurt someone intentionally" dirty player. Parker is too soft for hard contact on anyone. Finley and Barry are not dirty, either. Oberto has a bit of that dirty Argentine style to him (grabbing, holding), but he's pretty insignificant to label the whole team as dirty. Horry has alway had a good rep until that last foul on Nash, which may have just been out of frustration more than anything else.
And, honestly, I hate to sound like a Horry apologist, but... he didn't hit Nash that hard, right? Nash took a Ginobili on that one.
The Suns have Raja Bell, who is almost as dirty as Bowen. They flop quite a bit, too (the charge on Duncan, for example). I don't think it's fair to label one team as "dirty" compared to the other, but you are welcomed to make your argument - I admit that I probably haven't watched as much of these two teams in general, so it is quite possible I am missing some valuable information....
I think there is so irony in that the whining that Amare did enabled the Suns to probably get most of the calls yesterday, and, at the same time, might lead to his suspension for Game 5, too. The refs giveth, Stern taketh back.
The other thing I was thinking of posting on is the "softness" of Euro players (which D-Wil touched on over at TSF), and where it stems from... I might throw up a quick post on it....
I think the problem is that no one really pays attention to the Spurs in the regular season (because they're "boring") and then they hear Amare call them a "dirty" team. So they believe him. And the Horry hit didn't help.
I think Horry hit Nash hard, but I think physics (and flopping) had more to do with the fall than with Horry's intentions. In other words, Nash is smaller than Horry, and a small guy hitting a big guy is bound to result in some problems for the smaller guy.
And, yeah, the Spurs as a whole are not a dirty team (or "thugs") no matter what Stoudemire says. But now, after this, everyone will hate them and be on the Suns' side. And that's where the NBA blew the call when they suspended Stoudemire and Diaw.
I would like to thank you for the endeavors you have made in publishing this article. I am trusting the same best work from you in the future as well. In fact your fanciful writing abilities has inspired me to start my own blog now. Genuinely the blogging is spreading its wings rapidly. Your write up is a fine example of it.
SML, Peace
Just wanted to weigh in on the possibility (ok, probability) of an Amare/Diaw suspension.
I know all about the letter of the law (I live in Harlem, after all - nuthin but overzelous cops on every block!), and "rules are rules" and all that. This situation, however, is not about the letter of the law, but rather its spirit.
That is, the rule is designed to prevent players from entering into a fracas by leaving the bench. Under those terms, the rules were a triumphant success last night. Sure, Amare and Diaw left the bench, but they were quickly corralled, then they remembered the rule, and promptly returned to the sideline.
Bottom line: the rule worked! No one from either bench entered the fray.
So what is the problem, exactly? Well, the problem is the wording of the rule itself, which says something like, "during confrontations no player can leave the bench." What it SHOULD say is "during confrontations no player can leave the bench AND JOIN THE FRACAS." Or, better stated: "any player who joins a fracas from the bench will be suspended."
Amare/Diaw didn't do that. Case closed.
But, alas, things are never so simple and tidy, and like Shaq said last night, "life isn't fair." So bye bye Amare/Diaw, bye bye bloody exciting series. The silly L will actually reward the team - and possibily the NBA chip - that used an expendable player to commit an unforgivable cheap shot on its marquee player!
Unbelievable.
Especially in light of the fact that the main reason why Santone felt empowered to resort to cheap shots in the first place is because this series has been poorly officiated, and the L had failed previously to step in and punish Santone for egregious acts already committed, so the Spurs brand of thuggery seemingly knows no bounds! Notably Duncan, Ginobli, Bowen, Vaughn, Oberto, Parker and now Horry (only Finley and Barry show the game of basketball any respect) use their arms, hands, and feet to disrupt shooters, ball handlers, rebounders and screeners in ways that no other NBA team is allowed to do - and this ain't no "whining" cuz I'm not even a Suns fan, but facts is facts.
Again, I think its sad. And I don't necessarily agree that the Suns haven't adapted to Santone's thuggery. One SHOULD be forced to adapt to playoff-level intensity and execution, of course, but not to outright jacking and macking!
I think the Suns are right to try to force their tempo and style of play on the opposing team. All you gotta do is "clean the game up a bit," and the Suns would be fine. But when Amare made that comment a fews days ago, I'm sure he didn't think that his own suspension would be the means to that end.
Neither do I.