If you remember back after the All-Star game, SML made some predictions on how the NBA season would turn out. Here is our analysis of how we did:
Eastern ConferencePredicted Record (Actual Record) Games Off:
Toronto 45-37 (47-35) +2
New Jersey 38-44 (41-41) +3
New York 38-44 (33-49) -5
Philadelphia 27-55 (35-47) +8
Boston 24-58 (24-58) Perfect
Detroit 51-31 (53-29) +2
Cleveland 45-37 (50-32) +5
Chicago 44-38 (49-33) +5
Indiana 41-41 (35-47) -6
Milwaukee
30-52 (28-54) -2
Miami 44-38 (44-38) Perfect
Washington 44-38 (41-41) -3
Orlando 41-41 (40-42) -1
Atlanta 34-48 (30-52) -4
Charlotte 30-52 (33-49) +3
We expected Miami to go 18-12 down the stretch, and they did. We thought Atlanta would do better down the stretch, but no such luck. Cleveland we thought would turn on the cruise control; however, with the Bulls on their butts for the 2nd see most of the second half, they had to pick up their game, and they did. We predicted Washington and Indiana would struggle; however, we failed to gauge how much they would struggle, as we we still 9 combined games off on our Washington/Indiana will struggle prediction.
That really emphasizes how bad Indy fell apart - they were 29-24 at the half. They were lock into a playoff spot, and instead went 6-23 down the stretch. Wow.
Western ConferencePredicted Record (Actual Record) Games Off:
Utah 52-30 (51-31) -1
Denver 43-39 (45-37) +2
Minnesota 38-44 (32-50) -6
Portland 34-48 (32-50) -2
Seattle 29-53 (31-51) +2
Phoenix 62-20 (61-21) -1
LA Lakers 45-37 (42-40) -3
LA Clippers 41-41 (40-42) -1
Golden State 39-43 (42-40) +3
Sacramento 36-48 (33-49) -3
Dallas 65-17 (67-15) +2
San Antonio 53-29 (58-24) +5
Houston 51-31 (52-30) +1
NOOCH 41-41 (39-43) -2
Memphis 23-59 (22-60) -1
We did much better with the Western Conference; with the exceptions of the Spurs and the T-Wolves, we were within a three-game margin of every team. Overall the West did worse than we predicted in the second half, partially because the East got better (the Bulls, Nets, Cavs, 76ers and Heat all had really strong second halves, for example).
We said we expect NOOCH, GS, the Clippers and the Nuggets to have better second halves. We were pretty close on those four (the only slight smudge was that we thought it would be NOOCH, not the Warriors, who would end up with the last playoff spot). We said Seattle would do poorly in the 2nd half, and got 9-20; they did poorly, but went 11-18, so we were slightly off.
Playoff predictions and previews will be coming up in the next couple of days.
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