Mission Statement: The Knicks, for Isiah's sake, have to keep showing progress. Despite their tailspin at the end of the season, they still improved by 10 games, and could have improved by more. The roster is full of young talent, and is one of the deepest in the league (it took injuries to three major contributors at the same time, plus two more soon afterwards, to torpedo the season), so the playoffs are must at this point. Anything less than 40-44 wins is unacceptable.
First, let's look at the current team, then we'll discuss how they can upgrade, and which moves to make. Here is the lineup for next season, if there are no changes to the roster:
PG: Marbury
SG: Crawford
SG: Richardson
PF: D. Lee
C: Curry
Bench: Frye, Jeffries, Balkman, Robinson
Others in the rotation: Morris, Collins, #1 pick.
Still on the roster, playing only in the month prior to the trading deadline, and just enough to draw two quick fouls: Jerome James.
Gone: Francis (it's just a foregone conclusion at this point, no?).
The first thing you will notice is that Lee has moved into the starting lineup ahead of Frye. Though we know that Curry doesn't work too well with Lee (Lee's lack of a jumper means teams can double Curry easily), but assuming he's healthy and active he should move into the starting rotation ahead of Frye. Jeffries has fallen out of Isiah's favor this season, so no reason to think he will start.
What moves can the Knicks make, and should they make them?
First off, Frye is expendable, as we have argued recently. His failure to improve his game this season, after a strong rookie season in which he finished 5th overall in the R.O.Y. voting (impressive considering Chris Paul was almost a unanimous winner). In fact, his game took a big step back, as he lost his willingness to drive to the hoop, draw fouls, or take jumpers from within 10-15 feet (which the only possible reason he should be starting over Lee, in fact).
That having been said, he has trade value. He can start on a lot of teams in the NBA, and most teams would take a chance on him if they can get him on the cheap. He is still on his rookie contract, has great fundamentals, and is long. He could easily return to his 20/8 averages he was putting up under Brown last season. So what should we get for him?
Well, our man Jacob throw out some good names that are always in play: Drew Gooden, who has been rumored as a potential Knick almost as long as Chris Webber now; and Corey Maggette, who has been on the trade block for two years now. While both are talented players, we don't see either as filling too much of an immediate need. In fact, I think the Knicks have enough talent as is, and simple addition by subtraction is sufficient.
So what should the Knicks get for Frye? A future #1 draft pick would make us happy. It's an asset, and it'll pay off in the money year for the Knicks, which is 08-09. And if it's lottery protected, even better.
Wait, that doesn't make sense? Let me explain: the reason conversations about Eddy Curry and the trade have made me rethink one aspect of the trade. I often have agreed in the past with criticism that Isiah should have prepared for the worst case scenario and lottery-protected last year's pick. Now I think that is faulty logic. Since I don't want to come off as a Isiah-defender too much (lord knows it seems like I am a lot these days, though), let me say I still think he paid too high a price for Curry, even if Curry turns out to be a stud, and those picks don't pan out. Specifically, that conditional switching of the 2007 picks is annoying me; I'm almost positive that wasn't necessary, and that Isiah agreed to it because his ego led him to figure there was no way that it would be of any significance come 2007.
But the lottery-protecting of the 2006 pick? Was what happened last season really the worst-case scenario? Well, let's remember that the 2006 draft was terrible. That #2 pick turned out to be Aldridge, who looks like a legit player, maybe even a future All-Star in a few years (though not certainly). It's too bad for Isiah and Knicks fans; it could have just as easily turned out to be Adam Morrison, who doesn't look like a future All-Star (maybe a future Crawford at best). In fact, remember that Adam was the best college player in the country, and could have gone #1 easily (just Google "2006 NBA draft predictions" to see for yourselves). The point: The 2006 draft was really bad, and everyone knows this.
But why not lottery-protect the pick? Because it carries forward - you have to pay the price at some point; you are not getting out of giving Chicago a #1, right? So would you rather have given up a 2008 #1, especially if the bottom falls out again next year? Maybe the Knicks are sitting on O.J. Mayo or Kevin Love (next year's draft looks deep, too, and if Oden doesn't declare this year, maybe next year's is even better)? The point here: What looks like the worst case scenario really could be even worse. Ask the Vancouver/Memphis Grizzlies about worst case scenarios. That Otis Thorpe trade in 1997 ended up costing them in 2003; yes, the pick ended up being Darko, but it also cost them Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh or Carmelo Anthony. The lessons there: One, even having a high pick in a deep draft with four possible future hall of famers doesn't mean you'll get them, and two, that lottery-protecting a draft pick sometimes means you end up giving up the best pick in franchise history many years later. After all, not all teams get better the next year after a lottery, and sometimes they get worse.
And, for all our optimism, it could fall out again. As we now know, all it takes is a slew of injuries to ruin a good season. Well, Marbury is aging, has a lot of miles on him, and now has two bad knees. Richardson's surgery is suppose to help his back in the future, but his back is so bad that it is uninsurable. Crawford's ankle surgery is very similar to Grant Hill, and we all know how that turned out (another surgery on the same ankle soon followed, knocking him out for a year). Curry is still a possible heart attack waiting to happen. Lee's injury is unknown (it was first listed as a "ankle sprain", but then it became a "slightly fractured foot injury"; it may soon develop into laminitus), but it took him out for the last month of the season. Considering that's the Knicks' entire starting lineup, um, let's not assume that losing 60 games is out of the question for next season.
Anyway, so maybe the Knicks ought to roll the dice with a draft pick in return for Frye. Maybe Atlanta would be interested in Frye? The Nets would be a good fit... Kidd, whoever is the SG (depending on what happens with Carter's opt-out) Jefferson, Frye and Kristic?
What about free agents? Jacob hit on a name I hadn't realized was available (a million points for that): Jason Kapano. Gary Payton is also available from the Heat. I know, I know - the Glove is freaking long past his prime. But he is a pure point who can distribute the ball pretty well still, throw an entry pass better than any Knick, and knock down a shot when needed without taking too many of them. No way he signs with the Knicks, though. Kapano will be heavily courted we are guessing, but Isiah maybe willing to overpay for him. Rashard Lewis, Gerald Wallace and Vince Carter are the big names out there.
We actually really like Vince Carter, but he won't be on the Knicks. He's too expensive, so it won't happen. Lewis, on the other, is a possibility, though very small. Both Carter and Lewis are similar in skills set, and would be great outlets for Curry's passes out of double-teams. Gerald Wallace is a stud, but he, too, is too expensive for the mid-level exception.
We like Capano a lot; the 3-point contest winner this year has great range, and is a cheap, less polished version of Lewis. If they can pull it off, Isiah gets props. Jacob also mentioned Anderson Varejao, another hustler/finisher in the Lee/Balkman mode. We love Varejao's hustle (and his hair), but want the Knicks to focus on a spot-up shooter like Kapano or Lewis. Keep in mind that the Knicks are projected to draft a SG like that; the talk has them taking foreigner 6'5 SG Marco Belinelli with the 23rd pick. He's basically a shooter, who, according to HoopsHype, needs to work on taking his man off the dribble. Since the Knicks won't ask him to (just hit the open shot, please), he'll do fine as a pick.
The other way to get better - take a chance and trade for someone else's big money headache or injury-prone player. The obvious ones: Ron Artest and Mike Bibby. And Baron Davis. This obviously is Isiah's favorite way of bringing talent to the Knicks. It's how we got Curry, Marbury, and Richardson. And Francis (though that's on Larry Brown). We vote "no" on Davis (unless it includes either Francis or Marbury in the deal), who is a talented player and great passer, but injury-prone. We vote probably not on Bibby, too, because he looks a little washed-up, but if they don't give up anything for him we might give it a try; the man can still hit an open jumper, and he'll work the pick-n-roll perfectly with the big men; if someone on the Knicks can can a jumper from the PF/C spot (Frye if he is still around, or Morris if he develops quickly, or Lee if he learns to shoot), they could be deadly. But given that the Knicks don't have a player right now that is very adept to the pick-n-roll, we say no. As for Artest: yes. He's a head case, true, but he's a defensive player that can go in at either forward spot and do what both Richardson adn Lee bring to the team - hit threes, hit open shots, rebound well, post. And his hardcore effort is really needed on the Knicks. Would he be a walking time bomb? Yeah, but it would be worth the risk. And he's surprisingly underpaid (7-8 million a year for two more), meaning Frye and one more could get the deal done. We would be happy if the other player is Robinson or a veteran; if it's Lee, Morris or Balkman, that would still be okay, but we would be less happy.
Jermaine O'Neal is also a possibility. His contract is really expensive ($22 million per year for the next four years makes him the most expensive player in the NBA right now, no?), and Indiana would love to get rid of him. The Knicks don't have much to offer, but the Pacers would probably be happy with a young white player to showcase to the fans. In other words, David Lee plus Steve Francis plus another asset (Frye, Morris, or Robinson) might get that deal done. While we hate to see Lee go, he is replacable by Balkman off the bench, and O'Neal and Curry would feast on the inside, while Crawford, Richardson and Marbury would kill from the outside.
Of course, the deal with that trade, or any of the other moves discussed, is that it is all contigent on whether James Dolan unleashes Isiah and allows him to make moves or not. He may not have faith in Isiah being around too long, so he may not allow him to make a move for O'Neal or Ron Artest or Bibby or even a smaller move, like overpaying Kapano. If that's the case, we still believe that even without major additions, just by cutting ties with Francis, Frye for a pick, and drafting a sharpshooter, the Knicks can improve another 8-10 games and meet expectations.
If they add Jermaine O'Neal, that would make them a contender for the division next yerar (45-47 wins) - O'Neal plus Curry, Richardson, Crawford, and Marbury (with Balkman, Jeffries, and Robinson heading the bench) would be hard for any team to stop. That would probably be the move we could get the most excited about, though it is really unlikely. The Kapano signing would excite us in a smaller way.
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So let me get this straight, the players you think would improve this roster are: Jason Kapono, Gary Payton, Mike Bibby, Ron Artest and Jermaine O'Neal. Excuse me while I wipe the vomit off of my keyboard.
I'll give you Kapono. He'd be a consistent three point shooter on a team that's outside shooting is erratic at best. He would also give them another nice piece to bring off the bench. The rest of this group is either washed up or quite simply, not happening. Gary Payton isn't way past his prime, he's completely finished (and as you mentioned, he would never play for the Knicks in a million years).
I'm guessing you haven't watching Mike Bibby this season because if you had, you wouldn't want any part of him. Aside from the fact that his defense is completely non-existent at this point (this, actually, would mesh really well with the Knicks putrid perimeter D), he's lost a step and half as well as his jumper (just look at his field goal percentage this year). What's the matter, the Stevie Franchise experience wasn't horrific enough for you? We want to pick up another past his prime point guard with wobbly knees?
Ron Artest is sort of intriguing but you obviously don't realize how much Isiah Thomas loathes him. When he was the head coach at Indiana, he did everything in his power to dump him and Tinsley. The Knicks would never pursue him in a million years. And while I don't typically subscribe to the theory that certain cities are dangerous for out of control players, Ron Artest in New York with all the media pressure is a disaster waiting to happen. And don't forget, James Dolan wants character players (I just threw up again in my mouth).
Which brings us to Jermaine O'Neal. Why on earth would Larry Bird deal his best player to Isiah Thomas? Why?They absolutely despise each other. Larry Bird fired Isiah Thomas for Christ's sake. I want to know what makes you think they would be dealing partners. I need to hear the logic. The Knicks might have enough spare parts and pieces to turn into a second-tier star, but David Lee, Channing Frye and a first round pick won't mean jack if they can't offer cap space. That's the only conceivable reason the Pacers would want to dump O'Neal to begin with.
So that leaves us with trading Channing Frye to the Hawks for their first round pick in 2009 (they will lose their first round pick to the suns this year and can not give up a first round pick in successive years) and maybe (Marry Me) Jason Kapono.
SML, you find new and exciting ways to get me enthused about being a Knicks fan.
I don't particularly like those players that much, but understand that any player the Knicks can deal for would probably be a gamble. The only way the Knicks can add any talent, like I said, is to take on other people's trash. And, to be honest, I would rather Dolan ties Isiah's hands, and allows no moves again next season.
The difference between Francis and Bibby is that Bibby can hit a mid-range jumper. Francis was and still is a slasher, which the Knicks don't need (not with Curry and his three defenders in the paint already). That having been said, yes, Bibby would improve the team. He can hit a mid-range jumper and pass the ball (first, not second). Even long-term his big contract expires the same year as Marbury and Francis (which is after 08-09). So he's not a salary cap crusher long-term, either.
Great point about Ron Artest not getting along with Isiah. That is the reason the Knicks haven't gone after him.
Agree that trading with Larry Bird is unlikely, but if it helps both teams, whatever. Indy might be in the market to get rid of O'Neal in order to bring in fan-friendly players (Lee, Frye); getting rid of his contract, which last for four years, even if it is for Steve Francis' two year contract, would be a salary cap friendly move. They have the worst cap situation in the NBA, bar none. For that reason the deal might make sense for them. Still, I don't see it as a real possibility.
Kapano would be a good signing, but Isiah would probably have to overpay to get him, like a 4 or 5 year deal (like Jeffries and James in the previous years). And, like Jeffries, Isiah could probably draft someone who is a cheaper version of him (i.e. Balkman = Jeffries). So we figure Isiah can find a SG with a midrange to long-range accurate jumper without having to sign Kapano.
My ideal offseason would be very quiet. Let's give this squad another chance to prove they are a .500 team. If healthy next season, they can put up 40-44 wins, and hopefully continue to grow (specifically Curry, Crawford and Lee).
If not, if the Knicks suck worse or don't improve next season, then let's get a new GM in here to come up with a new plan. The big contracts expire after 08-09, so they can make moves/decisions based on that, plus they'll still have the 2008 number one (which would presumably be a lottery pick if the Knicks don't improve).
So my vote for best offseason plan would be do nothing. After that, it would be something small, like Kapano. After that, it goes Bibby. Bibby isn't that much of a risk in terms of salary cap and possible reward. He has played on winning teams all his career, and isn't afraid to take big shots at the end of games. He can set up and hit smart shots at the end of a quarter/game, not simply chuck up a three like Crawford, or fly into the paint hoping to draw a foul like Marbury.
I think O'Neal would lift the Knicks to a higher level, but it would also cost the Knicks almost all possible cap flexibility until four years from now, which would make their situation as bad as the Pacer's current situation. Would Indy trade him to the Knicks? Only if they give up him, and can't get a good offer (which are both possible). 20% chance of that happening.
I think Artest is always worth taking a chance on. His contract last as long as Bibby's (and Francis and Marbury's), so if he doesn't work out it doesn't effect the long-term cap. He gives them what they need in terms of defense and toughness. Is he available? He always is, and NYC is the one place he wants to play at. Will Isiah want him? No. But he might surprise us and roll the dice with him, just to make a move. 25% chance of happening.
The Pacers' cap number is currently $70M and change, next year $62M, the year after, $60M, then $51M.
I'm not sure how that puts them in the worst salary cap position by far. In fact, the Knicks numbers over the next 4 years are: $139M, $87M, $86M and then $41M.
I think I'd rather have Indy's cap situation.
Jermaine O'Neal is a pipe dream. That team went to great lengths to clean house this season, there's no way they're going to take Francis back for their only legit player. And they don't need Lee, they got their "white guys" in Murphy and Dunleavy.
Kapono would be a good signing, but how can they possibly afford him? They have the $5M mid-level exemption (which I bet gets used, at least partially, on Chris Webber) but that won't be enough. I guess they could do a sign and trade. Which could be possible, but it would probably mean a pick going to Miami from the Knicks.
Why, on earth, would the Hawks want Frye? Don't they have 15 guys to play the 3/4 already? No one is going to give up a number one for Frye, not when he's regressed, especially the Hawks.
The Knicks are either going to stand pat, and hope Isiah can work his "magic" with a late first round pick, or they're going to swap their garbage for someone else's, which is probably the way things will happen. Isiah will trade a relatively short-term horrible deal, for a longer-term horrible deal. Either way, the playoffs are not in the Knicks future until they clean house.
You may want to look at those numbers again. The Knicks salary situation for next season: $87 million. The season after that: $86 million. Then they are back under the cap (which is $53 million this year, and will probably be about $57 million in 09-10): $41 million, then $28 million.
The Pacers next four years: $62 million next season, $60 the season after that. Like the Knicks, they are over the cap for the next two seasons. You can argue that maybe they can move a player or two to free up some space, but unless they move either O'Neal, or two of the following: Troy Murphy, Mike Dunleavy and Jamaal Tinsley - they won't free enough space to be pursuing anyone.
Then they are at $51 in three years. Adding in the rookies and cheap players to fill out their roster, they will be almost capped out at about $57 million. At best they will have maybe a couple of million free for a free agent. The Knicks, again, will at least be able to sign a player in three years if they want.
Now in four years the Pacers lose O'Neal from the cap, and drop to $30 million, which is similar to the Knicks number for that year. That's about equal.
But the Knicks, if they make no moves, will be able to get under the cap after two more seasons; the Pacers will not until three more seasons from now. So I would take the Knicks situation.
Also, and this is debatable, of course, but: Dunleavy and Murphy are as untradeable as they get. So is Francis and Marbury. However, Dunleavy and Murphy (and Tinsley, too) are all signed for four more years! Francis and Marbury are signed for only two more years. So advantage Knicks.
I'll bet Kapano won't get more than $5 million per year in his new deal. Whether the Knicks go after him or not is a different question. I hope they do nothing, and I really hope they don't sign Webber, unless it's for very cheap.
Yeah, good point about the Hawks. But my thinking there is that they can't sign any free agents, so the only way the Hawks can get talent is via a trade. So they might be interested in Frye, since he's young and is a good fit on their team. The 4's the Hawks all have are undersized (Smith is long, but he's only about 6'8 in reality), whereas Frye is a legit 6'10, 6'11.
The Nets are a good match, too. They are also more likely to trade their pick, since the don't anticipate it being a lottery pick, even if they lose Vince Carter.
As for the playoffs, all the Knicks need to do is stay healthy next season, and they should be able to win 40-44 games and contend for a playoff spot. Presuming the East doesn't get too much better (no reason to think the Conference will get better, not with Memphis getting one of the two best players available, unless a bunch of good players switch conferences), 40-44 wins should put the Knicks in the playoffs. That's the goal next season.
I'm sorry, why are the nets a good fit exactly? Haven't they already got their soft big man who is good for 17 and 6? Nenad Krstic is a rich man's Channing Frye. I can't believe the Nets would be legitimately interested in him unless they were surrendering a late first round pick. And Brian, as fun as it is to stomp on the buffoon that is Isiah Thomas, there is no way that he's signing Webber. Why would Webber even consider playing for the Knicks? Show me Magette and Gooden. I have no idea how they'll get those two with their shit but that team would be good for at least 38 wins in the East. I'm already crying caustic tears of joy.
By the way, SML, can we stop waving this 10 game improvement flag? YOU could have coached this team to 32 wins. Anybody could have. Last year was the worst year in the history of the franchise. There was no where to go but up.
10 games was the minimum improvement they could have had, agreed. No one is pushing for Thomas for Coach of the Year.
What I took from the season, and expressed in the other post, is that when they were healthy and adjusted, for the long stretch in the middle of the season, they were a solid .500 team (26-26).
Consistent? Hell no. They lost to bad teams, then beat good teams. They could go two quarters of uninspired play, then get it together and dominate a third or fourth quarter, and make a comeback from double digits down against tough competition. What does that mean?
Depends on your viewpoint: If you take the positive, you would conclude that if the Knicks had won some of those winnable games... over at P&T they figured there was at least 15 games they could have won, against the Celtics, Bobcats, Sonics, etc.
If you don't take any of that, then this is a unpredictable, flawed team. I think that playing together with a set rotation in which every player knows his role will make the Knicks even better next year. That's why I'm not too keen on pushing for trades or major changes here. Let's see what a starting lineup of Curry, Lee, Richardson, Marbury and Crawford can do.
Frye is a tough call. On the one hand, he's cheap, so why not keep him around for another season, hope his value goes up. If you can use him in a trade to get something of value (a decent #1, or a good, needed player), then so be it. But he probably won't be that valued around the league. So maybe the best option might be to keep him around, and use him coming of the bench, and hope that playing with Balkman and Crawford and the running second team can help ignite him again... nothing to lose. After all, his value can't get worse....
There is a reason to think the East will be better next year. Boston and Milwaukee won't be hell-bent on losing every frigging game, and they'll each have a high draft pick added to their lineups.
The Sixers will add three first-round picks to the improved roster that beat the Knicks twice late in the season.
Dwyane Wade will be back, at full strength.
The Magic are going to have room to make moves once Grant Hill comes off the books.
The Bulls may add Oden or Durant with the Knicks' pick, if not, they're going to add someone like Horford.
There's no reason to think the Cavs, Wizards or Pistons will be worse.
Every team in front of the Knicks right now should improve or maintain with the exception of the Nets, which hinges on V.C.'s status. If he goes to Charlotte, there's another team that's improved.
Obviously, a lot is going to happen between now and then that we can't anticipate. There's one thing we can probably assume though, the Atlantic isn't going to get worse than it was this year. The Knicks record vs. the rest of the Atlantic this year: 3-12.
that was very logical and well thought out. Clearly the knicks need a distributing point guard and some shooters in the offseason. I actually think a guy like Bibby would make alot of sense if they could land him. He's past the point in his career where hes a gunner, but can still hit an open J and maybe now is more a pass first player.
A guy like Jermaine O'Neal i really dont think would solve the whole problem. As you said he makes more money than hes worth and seems like more of a short term fix than a long term solution. The knicks need to get younger and they need to develop a go-to perimeter scorer. Is Jamal Crawford that guy? From someone who saw him jack up shots for years with the bulls, i dont think JC can be the go to perimeter guy on a good team. Its gonna be hard to find a guy like that but i think Rashard lewis would be perfect cause hes a shooter too, if they could make a deal happen.