For once let's start with the Western Conference:
-The top three spots are pretty set - Mavs, Suns, Spurs. They are the top three teams in the NBA, and yet two of the three could be eliminated after the first round. More on that in a bit.
-The Jazz have the four spot locked, and the Rockets the five, so they'll be meeting in the first round. The Jazz are a tough team, with a smart veteran coach (Jerry Sloan) and a great center-point guard combo in Carl Boozer and Deron Williams (who is still underrated despite all the early season press he received; he and CP3 will be the battling for the All-Star point guard spot for many years, starting as soon as Nash falls off, in like two to three years). Unfortunately for the Jazz, the Rockets have a smarter coach (Van Gundy) and a better inside-out combo in Yao and T-Mac. Even their glue guy (Battier) has had a better season than the Jazz's glue guy (Kirilenko), who complained about being left out of the offense earlier this season. So despite home court advantage for the Jazz, the Rockets should win this series if they can remain healthy. -
-The sixth and seventh spots are the real story. Right now, the Lakers (perhaps thanks to Kobe's scoring explosion) are now on a five game winning streak and have won 8 of their last 10. This has unfortunately moved them up to the sixth seed, two games ahead of the Nuggets. Both the Nuggets and the Lakers are hurting themselves if they don't switch spots - the Lakers are better equipped to compete against the Suns. The Suns are a team they took to seven games last season, and the Suns prevailed thanks in large part to Tim Thomas' game-saving three in Game 6, otherwise the Lakers would have taken the series. While the Suns are better this year, so too are the Lakers. The Spurs, on the other hand, are not a good match for the Lakers. Their tough defense will slow the game down and take the other players out of the game for the Lakers, forcing them to rely on Bryant. As good as Kobe is, the team does better when he gets everyone involved.
The other side of the story is that the Nuggets are starting to gel. They won another big game yesterday against the Cavs, and have lately made the Iverson trade look good. Iverson and Carmelo are playing well lately - did you see Allen's 44 point, 15 assist game against the Suns? They blew out the Suns 131-107 that game. In four of their last five wins, Allen has had at least 10 assists (50 total) against a total of 8 TOs. In the other three games, the Nuggets are 1-2, with Iverson totalling 14 assists against 12 TOs. The one game they won was against the sorry ass Nets, a team we'll ge to in a bit.
Though the Nuggets can obviously beat the Suns, they match up well against the Spurs. Nene has been looking good lately (he hit 9-12 FGs yesterday for 21 points, to go with 9 rebounds, against the Cavs tandem of Ilgaukas and Gooden). The Carmelo-Iverson duo may be to much for the Spurs to contain defensively. Also, the Nuggets like to overplay the passing lanes to go for steals - on a quick moving team like the Suns, this could lead to easy baskets for the Suns, since they can exploit the Nuggets on defense. The Spurs aren't quick enough to properly take advantage of the Nuggets overaggression. I think the optimal opponent for the Nuggets would be the Spurs.
-The 8th seed in the West is currently the Clippers, with a 1.5 game lead over the GS Warriors. We are obviously rooting for the Warriors to matchup against the Mavs; their surprising success against the Mavs is well known. The Warriors have won both matches against the NBA's best team, and ended the Mavs' 17 game win streak last time they met. Warriors coach Don Nelson would probably savor a chance to eliminate his old team, and if nothing else, it would be generate more hype for a first round series than the Clippers would. Look for the NBA to make this happen (wink, wink).
The Eastern Conference, briefly:
-The Detroit Pistons and Cavs are locked into place at #1 and #2 (unless the Cavs are able to catch up to the hurting Pistons). The Raptors are battling the winner of the SW division (Wizards hold a half-game lead over the Heat) for the #3 seed, with the other division winner getting the #4th. Chicago is locked at #5, and the second place SW division team (our money is on the Heat winning the division, the Wizards falling short) gets the #6 spot.
-The Bulls would like matchup with Heat in this scenerio. Nobody wants to play the red-hot Heat, especially if Dwyane Wade is back. Chicago will be pulling for the Wizards, a team they would have an easily time upsetting in the first round.
-The Raptors are another tough to beat team in the 1st round, with the inside ability of Chris Bosh, TJ Ford's playmaking ability, and the deep shooting threat of the Bargnini (currently sideline by an operation, but due to return before the playoffs). They would also like to avoid the Heat in the 1st round, preferring to play the Wizards (if they finish 6th), or dropping to 4th to play the Bulls. If the Raps matched up against the Bulls Bargnini will force Ben Wallace to either guard him on the perimeter and leave the rebounds open for Bosh, or leave him open to shoot at will. And TJ Ford will have no problem getting past the slow footed defense of Kirk Hinrich.
-The race for the 7th and 8th spots in the East is turning into a bigger joke than it was before. I think if the NBA decided to award these two slots to the West instead (i.e. Golden State and New Orleans), would anyone really object? As it stands the Nets, thanks to an OVERTIME victory over a Bobcats team that was missing six players, including its TOP 4 SCORERS, moved into the 7th spot. The Magic are currently 8th, and tonight's game against the Knicks is big for both teams. The Pacers have looked awful for over a month now, going from 29-24 to 31-38 (2-14, if you are asking). The Knicks are minus Q-Rich tonight (who they will need if they want to beat the Cavs Tuesday), David Lee, and Crawford. Eddy Curry and Steve Francis missed practive with the flu. Stephon Marbury is still suffering a bit from his shoulder injury. Channing Frye is rocking googles to protect his eye (we wish he would play with an eyepatch instead, but that obviously isn't happening). Despite all this, if the Knicks win tonight they are back in the race, and even worse, if they make it to the playoffs they are tough matchup for the Pistons or the Cavs, teams they have beaten already this season.
The Nets are basically going to have to ride Vince Carter, if he is willing to even try. Kidd has run out of gas in his long season. Come the playoffs, however, we could see Carter light it up in order to guarantee his max contract. The best matchup for the Nets would be to stay 7th and take on the Cavs, where their lack of size inside won't be exploited as much, and where Vince could out-gun the Cavs to at least a few victories. The Pistons, on the other hand, would crush the Nets with little effort. We would love to see a Nets-Cavs matchup, along with a Knicks-Pistons matchup (only because the Magic and Pacers are unimpressive; if the 76ers were legit, they would be fun to watch battle the Pistons, but the 76ers have too many games to make up in too short a time).
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Alright, admittedly its an opinion question. I respect Sloan a lot, so don't take it as a shot at him - I think he's a top 10 coach every year. That having been said, he's always struck me as not a good game to game planner as he is an overall coach; to explain it further, he's great at developing players (see his work with points, up to Deron this season, as well as forwards - Boozer was never this good in Cleveland), but not so much at plays. In a series, I feel Van Gundy is a better coach at coming up with a gameplan to beat the other team.
This is why I feel Sloan's teams haven't advanced as far as they could in a lot of years; yes, the Stockton-Malone team went to the Finals twice, but he had some big playoff failures, too. 1993 - taken out in the first round by the Sonics. In 95 they lost in the 1st round despite having a regular season record of 60-22. The season after the second Finals appearance, they were knocked out in the 2nd round, despite going 37-13 during the regular season (strike-shortened). Admittedly they lost to talented teams (the Portland Trail Blazers in the later 90's, the Sonics in the early 90s, and the Rockets in 95), but there seems to be an inability by Sloan's teams to win big series.
Furthermore, Sloan's teams never seem to pull off upsets in the playoffs; Van Gundy could pull off a (mild) one here, and he certainly had some success with the Knicks, too.
For those reasons I summed it up as "Jeff Van Gundy is smarter", though what I really meant is he is a better matchups strategizer.
Jeff Van Gundy could cure cancer if basketball wasn't so important to him.
And Jerry Sloan = Bobby Cox (Atlanta Braves manager). Great regular season success, doesn't change game plan for postseason, often falls short because of it.
Watching the Sixers battle the Pistons probably wouldn't be fun. Watching them play any other team in the east would, but not the Pistons. Prince completely owns the Sixers, they never even compete against Detroit.
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How do you figure that JVG is smarter than Sloan? Just curious.