We did our National League predictions here.
AL East:
1. New York Yankees
2. Toronto Blue Jays
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
5. Baltimore Orioles
First off, we actually were very tempted to put the Blue Jays first, but I guess we are too much of Yankee fans to do that. We'll get to that in a while, but first let's start with Boston.
The bottom line with the Sox is they have too many question marks. Starting pitching - Josh Beckett has yet to prove himself. He's injury-prone, and had never throw 200 IP until last season. His ERA? Over 5.00. Yes he has great stuff, and yes, we remember his amazing performance in the 2003 World Series against the Yankees. We also remember his 9 BB disaster that sealed the Red Sox fate last season. Beckett always struck us as the Sox's Pavano, only with much nicer media coverage. Pavano has missed way more time, but they are both injury-prone, and erratic when they do start. Beckett tends to mix one good start, one decent start, three so-so starts, and two awful starts into his "seven starts before being mildly injured" rotation. In fact, we'll wager on Pavano having a better season this year than Beckett.
Schilling should pitch good because he is playing for a contract, but we see a lot of mileage on him, and we expect him to miss some time due to "injury" (read: secret steroid suspension of 15-20 games).
Dice-K (we think he should be called Andrew Dice-K at this point) has a lot of pressure on him. We think he'll get off to a good start, but (Fantasy Owners take note) he will tail off hard come mid-June. Japanese position players have made the leap to MLB, specifically Ichiro and Matsui. But there is yet to be a Japanese pitcher that made the jump that enjoy success for more than a little bit. The ones that enjoyed any success at all are the relievers, and they only had one or two seasons before the league caught up with them. Check the names out - Sasaki (Seattle's closer for a bit); Takatsu (ChiSox closer for a bit); Ishii (one good season); Hasagawa (another Seattle closer); Irabu (the original Dice-K); Okha (pitcher never exceed #4 starter role). Daisuke Matsuzaka may have better stuff than any of them, and he may even live up to the hype (he's had a great spring), but at some point the hitters will catch up to him (especially in Fenway Park), and he'll have to make adjustments. Adjustments he hasn't had to make in a decade, probably. It'll be interesting to see how well he does against the league the second and third time through. We strongly suggest for you fantasy baseball owners out there that if you own Dice-K, and he looks good or great through June 1st, sell high. Because the hype will probably allow you to get a top-10 player (or maybe trade him in for a Johan Santana, who always starts off a little slow before killing the second half of the season) - if so, do it.
Wakefield is a solid #4, but Julian Tavarez, aside from being the most likely to get suspended for a month due to an on the field incident (can't go more than two starts without hitting someone), is completely unproven. The Sox need Jon Lester to come back quickly.
The bats are pretty much the same as always - Ortiz, Manny and a little more. Varitek is aging badly; JD Drew is unreliable and injury-prone. And wait until the fans start ripping into him - he may just leave one day and never come back, choosing to play road games only. Coco Crisp has failed to live up to the "Johnny Damon at half the price" hype.
The Yankees have their own problems, too. The starting pitching is already hurting - Carl Pavano has your opening day starter? Wow, there's one the fans are gonna love. Igawa has yet to be hit hard, but that's because everyone either strikes out or walks when he's pitched so far. Considering he has a low 90's fastball, we can't believe he'll keep striking people out. So the Yankees have better hope that he can at least stop giving up the free passes. Mussina, Pettite, and Wang are better than Boston's top three (or at least possess less questions), but at this point all three are looking likely to spend some time on the DL during the season.
The bats are fine - A-Rod is playing for a new mega-contract, so expect an MVP-like year from him. Jeter and Damon are solid top of the orders guys, Matsui is back, Giambi is still a capable lefty slugger, Cano is looking like a potential batting champ, and Bobby Abreu is also playing for a new contract somewhere. Expect a big season from Bobby - we're talking close to 30/40 type numbers.
But the Blue Jays are the team that will surprise many here. They may make a run at the division title, and will definitely be in the wild-card hunt. Pitching? They have that - Halladay is the best pitcher in the division. Burnett, like Beckett and Pavano, is another former Florida Marlin with injury problems and a load of potential. Of the three, however, he's also the likeliest to finally reach his potential this year. Chacin is a good up and coming young pitcher, and John Thomson is a great #5 guy. We don't like Ohka at #4, but we see the Blue Jays making a big midseason move if they are in it... we could see them making a run at a Dontrelle Willis-type soon-to-be-a-free-agent type of pitcher.
The Jay's offense can hang with the Sox's best - Vernon Wells, Overbay, Glaus, Rios, and now Frank Thomas. We see them putting up alot of runs.
And the Jays closer (BJ Ryan) is just as good as the Yankees' Rivera or the Sox's Papelbon. Word.
The Devil Rays will also do surprisingly well this year - this may be the year they finally break the low 70s in wins. The offense is a fantasy baseball owner's wet dream - Crawford is top-5, Baldelli and Cantu are poised for big comeback seasons, Delmon Young is the real deal, Navarro is a former Yankee catching prospect with a starting gig, Johnny Gomes can mash, and BJ Upton will get in the lineup at some point and start living up to the hype. The arms are basically Kazmir and Jae Seo, two gifts from the Mets that won't stop giving. The rest of the pitching staff is awful, but expect some help from the minors during the season, particularly in the form of Jeff Niemann (TB's former #1 pick in 2004).
Baltimore use to be a real threat. We're not sure what happened to them - they have weapons. Tejada is the best SS in the division; Mora, Ramon Hernandez, Roberts and Patterson (50+ SB last season, plus almost 20 HRs) are all above-average for their positions. Markasis is getting a lot of hype. I guess it comes down to the pitching - Bedard is hardly proven as an ace yet, and Cabrera is still too wild. When Leo Mazzone finally starts paying dividends, and gets these guys straightened out... well, maybe then the Orioles will become a threat again. Until then they are probably a cellar dwelling team, albeit in the toughest division in baseball.
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Agree with you on the Sox, and the O's. The Devil Rays aren't a threat (other than to win a little more than 70 games, which is where I'm placing them) - they still have no defense, and no pitching beyond Kazmir and Seo (we expect about 13-14 wins for Seo).
But we don't think it'll be a comfortable victory for the Yanks. In fact, we came very close to predicting the Jays to win...
Seriously, the Yanks have some pitching problems right now themselves. They are depending on Pavano, Mussina, Pettite, and Wang to stay healthy (all are injury prone), and their fifth starter is currently unable to throw strikes consistantly. Now, we really think Clemens to the Yankees in June is a done deal, so that changes everything.
But until then, expect the Blue Jays to keep up. Halladay is a workhorse; Ryan is arguable better than Rivera during the regular season. Frank Thomas doesn't need to do anything on the turf other than run the bases - he's DH fulltime, so its no different than last season in Oakland. He provides pop, along with Glaus. Rios and Wells give the Blue Jays a future all-star pair of outfielders. I think they can hang with the boys this year....
You were curious and I figured I would let you know: my AL picks are up. AL East same as yours, for pretty much the same reasons. The way I see it, offense wins divisions, pitching wins playoffs. I do think there will be some unknown D-Rays pitcher that will come out of nowhere in mid-June or whenever be 8-2 or something.
Wish I wasn't at work today, I would sit at a sports bar and watch 9 hours of baseball.
Agree with you on Sox and O's, the D-Rays are in for another dismal season. Kazmir is the real deal, but they have absolutely no pitching outside of him, and probably the worst pen in baseball. The D-Rays are a year or two away from having a really productive offense, but it's going to depend on whether they can keep Crawford or not.
The Sox didn't improve drastically. Even if Dice-K is an ace, which I doubt, Beckett and Schilling are marginal at best. Their pen consists of 1 pitcher, and the O is really just Manny and Papi. Crisp is horrible, Drew is decent when he actually plays, Youkilis is a slap hitter playing a power position, Lugo won't steal, and that's all he's really good for. They finish third.
The Yanks should win the division comfortably, the injuries to the rotation could be a good thing http://www.depressedfan.com/blog/2007/03/the_yanks_compulsory_rebuildin.php
The Jays, what can I say about the Jays. Frank Thomas was a horrible signing. That old man is going to last about a month on the turf, even if he's only DHing. If Rios produces like he did last year before he got hurt, they'll put up runs in bunches. AJ Burnett can't get on the field. Their pen is good, but Ryan isn't as good as Mo. Halladay is the best pitcher in the division without a doubt, but he needs to stay healthy as well. The Jays absolutely own the Sox, they're pretty much a lock for 2nd place, but I don't see them challenging the Yanks this year. I also don't think they get the wild card.