We are now roughly four hours away from the Super Bowl. It is time for SML's last second look at the Super Bowl!
Despite our recent struggles in basketball (overall record currently 10-19), SML had a hugely successful regular season of football betting this year. We are hoping for one last big payday. As such, we decide to take the points (+6.5) and the Bears.
Our rationale: One, the Bears and the Colts are about even, despite what the bookies may think. The Bears are 15-3 so far this season. Their defense and running game (which, according to the cliche, is what wins championships) is superior to the Colts. The biggest knock against the Bears is Rex Grossman. How can you trust Rex Grossman?
Well, first off, so far in the post-season The Sex Cannon has been a better QB than The Notorious Advertising Whore. Despite all the talk about how Peyton has climbed the hump (beating the Pats), he has not looked good at all this postseason. There is also a 40% chance of rain today in Miami; that bodes well for the offense of the Bears, which can grind it out on the poor running defense of the Colts (sorry, still not sold on their defense), and not so well for the speed oriented passing game of the Colts.
My favorite line of the week was Nick Harper essentially telling Rex Grossman he needs to be worried about the Colts pass rush and defense... um, Nick, you think you worry Rex? Peyton's gone through three boxers a day since he started looking at the footage of the Bears this year... you might want to worry about your QB there, given his history of buckling under pressure. I'm gonna take the points and Bears. In fact, I'm also taking a smaller bet on the Bears straight up (paying +200), and fully expecting a repeat of 1985 here today.
On to the prop bets, which are always fun:
Super Bowl MVP - I took Thomas Jones at 11-2. If you believe in the Bears, and I clearly do, then your two best options are Rex (5-1) and TJ at (11-2). I'm gonna bet on TJ, though it wouldn't be a bad idea to cover your bases and throw some money on Rex, too.
First score of the game will be: Not a TD (+105). Here's betting on a FG... the 1st quarter of every Super Bowl is always slow. Last year's first score - a FG by Seattle.
Team to score first: The Bears. We're banking on a turnover or a strong drive or something will lead to some early Bears points.
Those are the picks for today.
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