Can the Knicks make the playoffs?

Right now there are four teams in the Eastern Conference battling for the last two spots, and the Knicks are looking up at the other three:  Orlando (27-28), Miami (26-27), NJ (25-30), and the Knicks (24-31).

The bad news for the Knicks: catching up to teams in front of you is a sh*tty endeavor because no matter how well you play, you are still dependent on the other team(s) to do worse than you.  If the Heat win 25 of their last 29 games, it really doesn't matter what you do, does it?

The good news for the Knicks: those three teams are struggling.  Badly.  Miami took an assassination attempt yesterday, with Wade's shoulder injury.  It's too early to tell if they will survive; Wade could be back as early as two weeks from now, but if there is serious damage he could be out until April.  Miami minus Wade is a seriously endangered team.  Orlando has played like sh*t for the past two months (14-23 in their last 37 games).  Grant Hill's return might help steady them, but they are also vulnerable.  The Nets?  Since Kristic went down we knew they were at best .500 the rest of the way, and with Jefferson also out, they are a bloodied mess.  Even Indiana, currently 29-24, strikes SML as a .500 team at best that could be caught.

But can the Knicks do any catching?  First off, let's establish what the Knicks are.  Despite their record (24-31), they are a .500 team since the start of the season.  Their last two games: 1-1.  Their last six games: 3-3.  Last twelve: 6-6.  Last 14: 7-7.  Last 20 games: 10-10.  Last 30 games: 15-15.  Since the first weekend of 2007: 18-18.  They are mediocre defined.  The Knicks define .500 play. 

But to make the playoffs, and catch two of the three teams in front of them, .500 won't cut it, unless Miami, Orlando and the Nets all tailspin into the abyss.  The Knicks need to do slightly better, to make up for the poor start to the season.  If the Knicks get close to .500 overall, say a 40-42 overall record, then they will make the playoffs.  That requires a 16-11 finish.

The Knicks are capable of doing it... they have beaten good teams all year round.  And to improve from the 14-13 pace they are on to a 16-11 pace isn't hard; they just have to win two games they wouldn't normally win.  The games they have the most difficulty with are the second half of a back to back, as was the case yesterday in Philly.   They beat Orlando, but then played like ass against the 76ers.  Makes no sense?

Actually, makes lots of sense.  The Knicks problem in the latter portion of a back to back is that their starting lineup is tired/worn down.  No surprise: Curry isn't in good shape.  But that's not entirely the case... Curry yesterday: 22 points, 10-12 shooting.  Curry in game one versus Orlando: 20 points on 8-9 shooting.  Other recent back to backs: vs. LAL on 2/13: 19 pts, 9-12 FG; vs. GSW on 2/14: 13 pts, 6-14 FG.  Knicks won the 1st game, lost the second.

More examples: 1/30 vs. LAL: Curry 27 pts, 9-18 FG (Win).  1/31 vs. Char: 15 pts, 6-15 FG (Loss).  He did shoot more FTAs in all three first games (24 total) versus the second games (12 total).

But aside from the FTA, nothing changes much in Curry's game.  The Knicks won the second game of back to backs on 1/20 and 1/3, with Curry playing much better in the second games than in the first games (both losses).  So why have the Knicks played poorly in back to backs lately?

The bench.  The Knicks have been blasted in the 2nd quarter of all three of those games (the Charlotte, GSW, and Philly games), all three times by inferior teams with decent benches.  They ran the Knicks off the court, overcoming the Knicks 1st quarter lead and putting them in the hole. 

The solution is sparks from the bench.  The Knicks sorely missed David Lee yesterday, and normally it is the Knicks bench that runs other teams off the court.  But with Crawford now a starter, and Isiah shortening the rotation, the bench is not dominating the second quarter like it used to, especially in back to back situations.  David Lee is not enough, and too often he's getting his minutes earlier.  Nate Robinson has played sporadic minutes since his return from the suspension; tellingly, the team is 1-5 in games he has played 20 minutes or more since then.  So Robinson is not the answer. Francis might be a spark, but he's only played five games since returning from an injury, and only played four minutes yesterday.

The Knicks need to win that second quarter somehow.  They are 15-1 when leading after three periods; the only loss was an OT loss to Utah.  They can finish a game, in other words.  Bench play determines whether they can keep it close enough to win.  For the Knicks to win, to make the playoffs, they are going to need to utilize the bench more as the starters tire; Lee can't do it by himself.  Balkman provides instant energy; he might need more playing time.  Jerome James is going back to the bench after the trading deadline passes, so maybe he can spell Curry for a few minutes.  Francis needs to help keep Marbury fresh on those nights his knees are aching.

Will they make the playoffs?  The next three games will give us an idea: vs. Milwaukee (an inferior team that gives them trouble, especially Mo Williams off pick and rolls), at NJ (a team they need to catch), versus Miami (another team they are trying to catch).  If they win two of those three, they have a chance.  Typical Knicks would beat Milwaukee, lose to the Nets, beat Miami, things continue to move steadily towards the 37-43 record. 

But most important: the last game of February (vs. Boston) and the first three games of March (against GS, Atlanta, and Seattle).  All four are very winnable.  If they can win those four, and go .500 the rest of the season as they have since January, then they have two of their last four games against the Nets.  It could come down to that. 

SML's prediction: I don't see the Knicks making the playoffs.  Miami won't disappear. Orlando and the Nets will drop down a few notches, and the Knicks will close the gap, but at the end the Nets will beat the Knicks, and finish ahead of them. The Knicks will finish at 38-44, and just miss the 8th spot by a game.  But if they somehow get to 40-42, if they somehow win those four easy games, then the 8th spot will fall to them.

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