Here's the second part (the fun part) of the previous post on improving/declining teams: projecting this info to the future.
Using what we've learned from our little analysis, who does SML think is the most likely to improve over the next year (really next season, but perhaps even in the second half of this season)?
Let's start East - the likeliest would be Philly and Boston, right? They are both looking at top-5 picks, right? Well, not quite. Philly rates a no: the growth of AI2 is great (note they have been doing well lately), and adding a top player, even Durant or Oden, would help the team. But I don't see them improving that much, because they are what they are. Boston maybe, because their decline this season has alot to do with Paul Pierce's injury; that having been said, I still don't think they are making a huge leap, either. I would both teams down for a 4-7 game improvement (max).
The Pistons - their decline this year is an aberration... it was due mostly to injuries (the played poorly with Billups, going 3-5) and the absence of Ben Wallace. But if you factor in good continued growth out of 2nd year man Jason Maxiell, or possibly that Chris Webber may stick with this team next season, too (filling the Wallace void), then this Pistons team is going back to its 64-win pace.
Indiana. Just kidding... wanted to see if you were paying attention. Nah, Indiana will always be 41-41, or 42-40. It's called mediocracy.
The Bucks - hit hard by injuries this year (Redd, Mo Williams); add to it expected growth from young player (Mo Williams, Andrew Bogut), and we see them as a +10 team next season.
The Lakers - the will continue to make small steady improvements, mainly because they are keeping their team stable (like the Pistons) and they have young player that are growing (Luke Walton, Andrew Bynum, Jordan Farmer). I see them as a +8 team next year, maybe more.
The Suns - yep, they'll keep get better, even on their 64-win pace now; I see them being the best regular season team next year, and maybe winning 69-72 games. They might even break the Bulls' record for best regular season ever.
The Spurs - really no reason for their odd -9 win decline; expect an improvement next season, as they'll resume their 57-62 win pace. Especially with Ginobili and the rest of the international players (Duncan, Parker) probably not being as worn down from internation competition next year.
The Memphis Grizzlies - depends on whether they trade Pau Gasol or not (it seems almost certain they will). We'll come back to this later in the year.
The New Orleans Hornets - the easiest call - they will probably be a top-3, if not the biggest, improvers next season. Their poor record is really a result of key injuries (Chris Paul has missed long stretches, Peja has missed most of the season, David West is just finally getting back to playing on the court regularly). Add to that a lottery pick, and I see the Hornets easily getting 40ish wins, for a minimum of a +10 improvement.
What goes up must come down... most likely to decline next year:
The Nets - Book It, Skeets-style. Carter is most likely out, and Kidd ain't too far behind. Rod Thorn is a great executive, he'll rebuild this team, but first it'll have to get demolished.
The Pistons - whoa, what happened to all that 64-pace abberation stuff above?!? Here's the deal - the Pistons can go in many directions; they could lose Webber, and more importantly, their team is built on a starting rotation and no real bench depth... a major injury or two could turn this team into the 06-07 Hornets quickly. And you know what? This is a team whose starters are turning or hitting 30 soon, so a major injury, or even a series of minor injuries, is realistic.
Washington - yeah, I love Gilbert the Basketball Sociopath. We all do. But this team is overachieving... this team is built on three strong players and nothing else. And those three don't even have a strong paint presence... this can't last. Butler and Jamieson are overachieving, and Arenas might be, too. I think a small injury to one of the three is all it'll take to cause this team to lose 10 more games next year.
Seattle - Rashard Lewis is leaving, and so might Ray Allen, too. Even if they keep Allen, this team isn't that good, and it plays in the wrong conference. It'll be lucky to win 29 games next year.
Possible to watch: Indiana Pacers - every year they find a way to finish right about .500; at some point they are going to have to blow up the team, take it out of Larry Bird's hands, and rebuild it... I could easily see them trading Jermaine O'Neal at some point in the next year and starting over. Otherwise, yeah, expect another 41-41
Random Team - any team that gets a serious injury or injuries to its key players. That's what knocked off Memphis, NOOCH, Milwaukee, the Nets, and Boston down this season. It's hard to predict injuries, though we will try at the onset of next season, but rest assured that about 3-6 teams next year will have at least 5 less wins next season because of major injuries.
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