A look at the current standings, and projected finishes; we then compared it to last season's record:

The first thing we noted is that the Knicks are on pace for a 13 game improvement; no surprise, since they are one win away from matching last season's total before the All-Star break.  In fact, the only Eastern Conference team that has had a greater improvement than the Knicks is the Toronto Raptors, at +17.  Isiah for coach of the year?

Now, we at SML know the common argument against this type of analysis; that it is easier for a last place team to make a huge improvement, and thus the Knicks "success" is really a product of setting the bar really, really low.  We read the papers, after all. 

Here's the reality: check the top 3 improving teams... the Houston Rockets (+18), Toronto Raptors (+17) and NYK (+13) all follow that pattern, as they were last place teams.  But they were three different last place teams that have improved for three different reasons: the Raptors improved because they are young team that is growing and learning (Bosh, Calderon both up their games), and because they got some good rookies (#1 pick Barganini, plus Garbajosa), plus the TJ Ford acquistion.  The Knicks and Rockets both improved because last season were abberations; the Rockets were hurt by injuries (even more so than this season), although picking Shane Battier was a huge help, too; the Knicks last season were coached by a person who decided to throw the season in the hopes of forcing the owner to fire the GM; this season they are being coached by a person who is trying to win to save his job.

The other top 5 improved teams: The Jazz (+13) were a middle of the pack (.500, in fact) team - their improvement stems not from rookies, but from a full season of Carl Boozer (who missed most of last season) and 2nd-year man Deron Williams tremendous growth; the Portland Trail Blazers (+13) improvement mirrors the Raptors - second year players take huge strides (Jarrett Jack), a great rookie (Brandon Roy), and a young veteran improves his game (Zacht Randolph).

The Phoenix Suns come in at 6th, with a +10 pace.  That's an example of how an already really good team can get better; there is no reason to suspect that, barring injuries, they won't keep getting better. The vets are all signed for next year, and they'll be getting the Atlanta Hawks' pick (unless it is a top-2 pick), so they could be adding an impact rookie to the rotation, too.  There is no reason they can't keep improving to the point of a potential 70 win season next year - that really depends on whether they can make the leap to beat the really good teams that give them trouble (like the Jazz, who they are 0-3 against this season) the way they beat the bad teams, the mediocre teams, and the just good teams....

More proof: the Dallas Mavs are 7th with a +7 pace (to a league-leading 67-15 record). 

Also, these numbers illustrate that bad teams can get even worse: Boston was a lottery team last season that would have been a last place team if not for the Knicks... yet they have really hit rock bottom this year, on pace to lose 13 more games this season.  Charlotte and Atlanta, two of the worst five teams last year, have only managed a small (+10 combined) improvement, and are once again on pace to finish last.

Of course, the reason why people believe that it is easier for a last place team to make a huge improvement is because the opposite is true - that it is easy for a top team to show a huge decline the next season; just because this is true doesn't make the opposite true . Logic teaches that the converse is not the same as the original statement (all popes are saints does not mean all saints are popes).

So the top decliners this year include alot of last year's top teams who have fallen to mediocracy or just slightly than better: last year's Atlantic Division winner the Nets (-11); last year's champions, the Heat (-13); and last year's Eastern Conference #1 seed, the Pistons (-13) are all in the top-5 decliners.  All it takes to be ripped from the top is a major defection (Ben Wallace in the Pistons case) or a major injury (Shaq, Wade for the Heat, Kristic/Jefferson for the Nets), then boom, welcome back to the pack.  Or even worse, a major injury to a team that was already overachieving (Pau Gasol), and that's how you get a whopping -28 game decline....

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