This is the 2007 Baseball Preview. For the next six weeks, SML will take a look at each MLB division, on a team by team basis. This week's division is the NL West.
This is definitely the most important division this season. Do you know why? Just look at the six WS winners since MLB pass the “No More Yankee WS Titles” edict in 2000:
2001: Arizona (NL West)
2002: Anaheim (AL West)
2003: Florida (NL East)
2004: Boston (AL East)
2005: Chicago (AL Central)
2006: St. Louis (NL Central)
So, if this pattern holds (and it will, damnit!), then the NL West is due up again. Um, unless the AL West is. Hmm.
My first team is the San Diego Padres. They went 88-74 last season, had a big second half, and got spanked by the Cardinals in the NLDS. But that big finish has fans excited - they went 9-1 down the stretch, and 20-7 after September 1st, to capture their second straight division title.Big offseason moves: They cut loose have-beens Mike Piazza and Ryan Klesko, but kept have-beens (but still decent) Greg Maddux, David “Doesn’t Eat” Wells and Mike “Whiff” Cameron. They also gave up quickly on 2B Josh Barfield, trading him to Cleveland for prospects, but they signed long-time Padres Brian Giles’ younger brother Marcus to replace Josh Barfield.They have not yet signed Cameron “Cam’ron” Giles to play catcher.
There was also ace Jake “Thug 4 Life” Peavy’s run-in with the law. While doing “charity” work to help children in DR with his “church”, Peavy was arrested for double parking in front of the airport. The security cop asked him to move his car, but Jake Peavy just told “Give me a ticket, I don’t care… I’m rich, you rent-a-cop bitch!”* He was arrested and charged with disorderly conduct.
So how do the Padres stack up this season? Their rotation is Peavy, Chris Young, Maddux, Wells, and probably Clay Hensley, all who will keep their ERA below their career averages, thanks to Petco Park’s spacious dimensions. Their closer remains Trevor Hoffman, set up by Scott Linebrink (assuming he is not traded) and Cla Meredith.
It’s a solid rotation and a top-5 bullpen, definitely the way to go in Petco Park. Offensively, the slugger Adrian Gonzales will play 1B and hit cleanup; you got young Giles at 2B, ‘lil Green at SS, and at 3B, I can’t believe he’s still a starter, Geoff “Blum ‘N Coke”. Eventually expect to see Kevin Kouzmanoff at 3B; the man has been a hit machine in the minors, average almost .320, with a good amount of extra base power. He won't be a 30 HR hitter for a while, but for those of you looking for a possible fantasy find, keep an eye on him: he can hit for a high average, and has just enough gap power to force the Padres to hit him as high as 5th in the lineup if he can get off to a good start.
The outfield will probably be Cameron in CF, with older Giles and a platoon of Jose Cruz and Terrmel Sledge. Not a great lineup.
Fantasy outlook: Young Giles should be a .300 hitter, which is good for a 2B. Adrian Gonzales came into his own as a slugger last season, look for cleanup type numbers from him (28 HRs, 98 RBIs). Of course, when it comes to Fantasy stats, you want pitchers from SD, not hitters. Peavy is a stud, let’s hope he stays healthy and avoids any more run-ins with the law. Look for a 16-9, 3.32 ERA year from Peavy, and the usual 3-week stint on the DL. I like Chris Young, expect big things from him this season – the flyball pitcher is in the right park to give up flyballs. I got him pegged for 17-11, 3.51 ERA. Hoffman has managed to stay healthy the past couple of years, and he has a great set-up in front of him – put him down for 34 saves.
Bonus segment: What if the media treated white players like it treats some of its minority players?
All eyes will continue to be on the media circus that is the embarassment to baseball that has become Brian Giles. The old Giles has no power left, but is still able to draw walks from fearful pitchers. His power numbers have been down, coincidently, since baseball enacted its steroid testing policy.
If the thuggish starting pitching, featuring notorious bad chemistry guys David Wells and Jake Peavy, can avoid being a distraction (big if), this team can be dangerous. Big if.
*Not quite accurate, but close enough.
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